Right now there are 2 Europes: Big 1st Wave and Small 1st Wave

Big: UK, Spain, Italy, etc >500 deaths/mil (CFR now close to IFR)

Small: Poland, Czechia, Hungary, etc < 100 deaths/mil

Seasonal return of SARS-CoV-2 = cases spike in both

But the resulting death is different

1
Let’s start with Big 1st Wave

I’m using UK and Belgium as examples

They were hit hard in March-May

Now, seasonality kicks in and a second wave of cases begins

But, deaths are just a small wave

Deaths do not follow cases in growth

2
Small 1st wave countries were largely spared in the spring, mostly by locking down before the virus had significamtly spread

Here, I’m using Czechia and Poland as examples

They are also seeing a second wave of cases, but this time deaths are rising proportional to cases

3
The big first wave countries are now seeing small second waves and vice-versa for their Central and Eastern European counterparts with large second waves

It appears that there’s some amount of established herd immunity in Western Europe

The dark red countries should do well

4
As a bonus, let’s look at South Korea and Japan

Based on seasonality we would expect to see a big growth of cases

Nope

If you’re curious as to my explanation why, look through the attached thread

5

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More from @gummibear737

17 Oct
Considering leaving Twitter

What annoys me is that my bigger followers hang me out to dry because they don’t want to be harassed by the “Science Expert”

Alot of us volunteer our time to provide a scientific counter balance

Fair enough, but if u won’t stand by us then good luck
You are not following my logic

We make great efforts to offer solid scientific data, but we are relegated to cheerleaders because our top followers look at our data but never promote

Like we are leperous science guys

Either we suck and post fake science or we do a good job
Read 5 tweets
16 Oct
Deep-Dive: Pandemic Planning - Then, Now

Our “Public Health Experts” are making recommendations on:

-Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)
-Risk-benefit in public health
-Ethical issues

Which break with all previous plans prepared by public health institutions (CDC/WHO)

1
What I did was look for Influenza Pandemic Plans/Recommendations created by our top Public Health Organizations in the past: CDC and WHO

I looked at Influenza because it’s also a respiratory infection which has garned alot of attention in the past 25 years: H1N1, H1N5 etc

2
CDC: Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI) for Pandemic Influenza, National & Community Measures, 2006

This was the addendum to the 2006 CDC Flu Pandemic plan

NPI : wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12…

2006 Flu Plan cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-r…

3
Read 19 tweets
13 Oct
I predict Trump wins based on data I’ve seen

It will be a close race, Trump might lose, but the outcome is not a foregone conclusion
This chart is a big reason

Major pro-Republican swing in voter registration patterns in swing states
Also, have a listen to this NYT podcast about how life long generational Democrats view Trump

nytimes.com/2020/10/09/pod…
Read 4 tweets
11 Oct
My Fauci Deep Dive

America's most famous public health expert:
-Exalted deity to some
-Embodiment of evil to others

What's the truth?

It's complicated...

It starts slow, but boy does it get good

Please RT this first tweet if you learned something new and interesting

1
Any retrospective on Fauci has to start in the 1980's with the arrival of HIV/AIDS

A trained immunologist, he was named director of the National Institute for Allergens and Infections Disease (NAIAD) in 1984, and has held this position since (36 yrs)

AIDS was his first test

2 Image
Initially, Fauci was the target for the frustration of the Gay community which was being disproportionately affected by AIDS

Many were dying and treatments were not coming fast enough

Larry Kramer famously penned this critique of Fauci: villagevoice.com/2020/05/28/an-…

3 Image
Read 34 tweets
9 Oct
Hey NYC, congratulations!

You’ve most likely reached herd immunity

These lockdowns are asinine...not necessary to close Broadway

I’ll prove it

First, you’re testing like maniacs and you can’t find new cases

Other cities around the world are finding plenty of cases

1/5
Second, hardly anybody is being hospitalized

You’re averaging 30-40 daily hospitalizations for the past two and a half months

This is not because NYCers have become mask ninjas

2/5
Third, you’re averaging about five deaths per day for the last two and a half months

Again, NYCers haven’t become ninja social distancers...ninja social justice warrior is more like it

3/5
Read 6 tweets
7 Oct
Since @lpachter insists on repeated hit jobs on @MLevitt_NP2013, I thought I would look at some of the wisdom that Lior lays out in this thread

Unfortunately for Lior, I was in the middle of looking through NIAID project funding for 2020

Let's see how he did

1
So @MLevitt_NP2013 was replying to this tweet by me about how much funding the NIAID received relative to the impact that allergens and infectious disease have on mortality in the US

Dr. Levitt replied that people should not be surprised by this (I am)

2
In my tweet, I specified that NIAID received the "most money for their projects"

I never said funding or budget

According to the NIH Reporter, the NIAID has spent the largest amount on their active projects

link: projectreporter.nih.gov/reporter_summa…

$700 mil more than cancer

3
Read 13 tweets

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