I've been calling FL for Trump for a while now, despite how polling looked at any given moment. This isn't definitive, obviously, but the trends should be worrying Biden...
Voter registration in FL has been utterly dominated by the GOP since 2016 as well. The Democrats have lost almost all ground they had since then, and it was already a Trump win back then. I think Biden should abandon FL at this point. But who knows.
Likewise, I think Trump should probably abandon Arizona at this point. I don't see it happening there for him.
PA is starting to trend for Trump. Not as stark as FL, but I think he'll hold it. More a drop for Biden than a lift for Trump, but given the margins in this race last time, and GOP registration trends, any tightening works in Trump's favor I think.

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More from @StaunchCon

17 Oct
As we approach what is likely to be a close and highly contested election, I would like to draw everyone's attention to the United States Presidential Election of 1876. I think it's a good time to see just how bad an election can get, and how it can go afterwards.
Let's start with a fun fact. The winner of the popular vote did not win the electoral college. Even though he won a *majority* of the popular vote. Only time in history that's ever happened.

It's also the slimmest electoral victory ever: 185-184. But wait, there's more!
Voter fraud and voter intimidation were *rampant*. I mean, super rampant. Like "South Carolina reported 101% more votes tallied than eligible voters in the state" rampant.

Many ballots there were printed with the Republican symbol (LINCOLN'S HEAD!) beside the Democrat candidate.
Read 17 tweets
16 Oct
Nobody seems to be polling Ohio anymore. I suspect it doesn't matter--it won't be close there.
Likewise Texas polling is very stale. Probably for similar reasons. I get the liberal hopes, but it ain't happening this round. If I squint, I can *maybe* see Texas going blue in 2024. But definitely not yet.
Iowa also stale. Also because it's a lock for Trump. I'm not sure why it's even considered in doubt.
Read 5 tweets
14 Oct
I am not convinced this new hunter Biden story is worth anyone’s time of day. But that’s no reason for social media to block it. How many bullshit Trump stories get amplified here?
By choosing to block this story—and then doubling down by blocking the NY Post’s account—the social media “we are not a publisher” plea has been set on fire and shoved down the stairs.
Social media was instrumental in many ways to getting info out that was unpopular with the normal information gatekeepers. Everything from American politics to resistance movements worldwide.
Read 4 tweets
14 Oct
Something that keeps happening in this hearing from the left, and I want to try and point out why it's insane.

They ask questions like "Would you agree that it was wrong for Bob to murder Harriet?"

She can't responsibly do that.

"BUT MURDER IS WRONG?!"

Yeah, and... /1
If they asked "Do you believe that murder is wrong?" then she could accurately answer "Yes, of course."

But once they present a specific hypothetical to her, she can't rule on it. You'd need to see the actual case presented with actual facts before you could draw a conclusion./2
Asking "Do you think Donald Trump can pardon himself?" is a bad question. Who knows? Depends on the circumstances, on the case as presented, on the facts disclosed. /3
Read 5 tweets

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