Now compare the TES chart on the left to the CDC chart on the right and a horrid realization becomes clear:

The CDC is planning on counting all these deaths, as ONE EPIDEMIC tally:
- ILI
- PLI
- CLI
- Lockdown

This is morally/ethically abhorrent.
In other words, the pandemic threshold is 5.7% for MMWR Week 41...

Covid deaths alone = 1.6%

Covid + ILI + PLI + Lockdown = 8.2%

Therefore stay at home orders must be re-issued in all 50 states through April 2021...
Covid-Related or Covid-Like

Always know what species of death is being pushed upon you. And hold its issuer accountable.

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More from @EthicalSkeptic

20 Sep
Yesterday we saw that we are nominally below the pandemic threshold and are two weeks (?) from The Crossover Point, the point where deaths from over-reaction exceed deaths from Covid itself.

We also cited that Covid reporting cannot account for 101,400 fatalities as of 5 Sep.
If we take CDC excess death curve & superimpose it upon our case & reported death curve - we are below EoS for cases now. We will be below EoS for excess deaths 3 weeks later - right on time.

Reporting however is a wild card depending on how far they dip into the 101,400 cases.
At this rate of true test-positive daily arrivals (theoretical new cases of Covid each day), the prospects of us drifting much beyond the middle of the herd resistance band, are pretty low.
Read 5 tweets
8 Sep
@Hold2LLC I have the outline of such a dissertation in my head. But in terms of the fatal critical path logic of each: 1/4
@Hold2LLC R(t) - viruses do not progress, transactions do. Such transactions have

- connector-processor-sink heterogeneity
- reach (vertical and horizontal)
- decay in virility
- friction
- seasonality based decay
- latitudinal decay

R(t) is counter-informative on these measures. 2/4
@Hold2LLC SEIR - 'recovered' is not only tail, but is ALL TAIL - which will always indicate that the sky is falling.

'Susceptible' - is an a priori knowledge boast of enormous sensitivity impact.

Both are high-sensitivity/low informing statistics. Systems pro's avoid such indices. 3/4
Read 4 tweets

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