16 Oct, 10 tweets, 2 min read
(FTA)
(1) P(E|K & ~D) ≈ 0
(2) P(E|K & D) >> 0
(3) P(D|K) >> P(E|K & ~D)
∴ P(D|E & K) >> 0
Willing to ironman the argument, come at me, which premise do you deny?
K = Many of the initial conditions and free parameters of a universe need to be finely tuned in order for the development of life in that universe to be possible.
E = The universe is indeed fine-tuned for life.
D = A supernatural designer of immense power and knowledge exists.
(1) The probability of E, given K and assuming the denial of D, is extremely low; that is, fine-tuning is exceptionally improbable if there is no designer – if the universe is the way it is just by chance.
(2) The probability of E, given K and assuming D, is quite high; that is, fine-tuning is quite probable if a supernatural designer exists.
(3) The intrinsic probability of D – the probability of D just considered in light of K and not in light of E – is greater than the probability of E, given K and assuming the denial of D;
that is, it is more probable that a supernatural designer exists than that, just by chance, the universe is fine-tuned.
The conclusion derived is that the probability of D, given E and K, is quite high; that is, the existence of a supernatural designer is quite high given that the universe is fine-tuned.

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# More from @alz2y

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