Everything we measure is measured against 2016 when Trump WON FL, NC, OH, IA, MI, PA, WI.

So in these states, Ds have to do BETTER than in 2016. They also have to overcome rather significant (sometimes massive) registration shifts.
So when I give you a number like Ds are down 2% in three major deep blue counties in MI, it's

down. from. 2016.

It means they have to not only overcome that, but then overcome the margin of loss in 2016 as well.
If "byecomey" says Ds as 200,000 behind their NC numbers, . . . it means their "overcome" number now has become 372,000 (200,000 now plus beating Trump's margin in 2016).

So they need to beat 70,000 in PA, but also beat an additional 190,000 R registration gain since then.
Given that Baris has Trump +6 with indies in PA?

Sorry. I don't buy any polling having Trump losing PA. They start out having to overcome a quarter of a million votes.

That's a lot of Suburban Karens.
And we KNOW that Rs support Trump in the 90s, but D support for Biteme is much less.

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More from @LarrySchweikart

18 Oct
1) OK, all here come the voting stats:

First, from "Freeper" bort about NC:

*Rs cut about 1.5 points from the Democrats lead in VBM/early in-person voting.

*) Votes cast: 665K Ds/355K Rs/408K I/U

*) D have cast 310,000 more votes than Rs
but . . .
*) In 2016, Democrats cast--get this--exactly 310,000 more votes than Republicans in the ENTIRE early voting period, i.e., the exact same spread as today.

*) Republicans have won 3 straight days of early voting so far & are the odds-on favorite to win most (if not all) . . .
of the remaining in-person EV days, as Dem-heavy mail-in ballots are slowing down to a trickle.

*) Caveat: Black voters have turned out in the first 3 days of in-person EV in large numbers (especially Day 1).
Read 9 tweets
18 Oct
1) 15 years ago I would have agreed with Ryan. But a lot has happened since then.

2) It's pretty clear now that the Von Mises/Hayek model ain't working.

3) According to Milton Friedman, we should have had phenomenal inflation by now. In that model, and that of the . . .
3) cont'd . . . classics, that inflation would have force gubment to cut spending or face such currency devaluation that the country would collapse. It hasn't.

4) Allowing for a small spike in gold prices, basically ALL the commodities are still pretty low priced.
5) Nowhere, at all, do you see hyperinflation associated with a multi-trillion debt. Why not?

6) In the 1990s, the word underwent a computer revolution. Contrary to Robert Gordon, who says this didn't have much impact on economic growth, it had PHENOMENAL impact.
Read 17 tweets
15 Oct
Discussions w pollster Rich Baris & info from Bill Cahaly (two most accurate pollsters);
*Fl out of reach for Biteme (Trump now over +3)
*PA close, Trump down 2, but internals jiggly: Trump now up SIX with indies; up from 2016 with blacks.

My inference:
*Baris STILL not comfortable finding the "shy Trump" voter. Has inserted MULTIPLE questions (who will your neighbor vote for, have you ever felt intimidated about your beliefs, ect).

Love these guys buy my gut tells me Trump is slightly ahead. Baris says Trump was asked . . .
repeatedly by donor about PA and only said "we're doing good." Wouldn't commit to being "up" by an amount as he has with NV, AZ, NC, FL.

So we'll see.

OH is way, way out of reach for Biteme. 8 points min.

IA out of reach. Margin may be smaller but no way to bridge it.
Read 5 tweets
15 Oct
1) I don't know Rudy Guliani. My sense of them is that, like Trump, he is a brawler adept at brass knuckles.

2) If I am right, and he is running this "op" on Hunter Biteme, the best is yet to come.

3) You NEVER lead with your best punch. You set the other guy up.
4) I'm guessing that Rudy's "hit" here was well timed and thoroughly planned.

5) I expect that he has MUCH more ammo.

6) The goal is to get the other side on record, off balance, on the "little" stuff.

7) Then comes the haymaker.
8) If I'm right, I expect to see the DemoKKKrats continue to react to issue "a" while Rudy has "b" ready to launch.

9) It WOULD NOT surprise me if Harris (Kampuchea) was taken off the campaign trail for reasons related to THIS, not just because she is toxic. In other words . . .
Read 4 tweets
15 Oct
1) FL: the D VBM is in full swing. Right now, our extrapolations say that if they continue at the current pace, excluding Sundays, they would exceed what we think is their necessary floor of 650,000 by 55,000.
2) Now, before you panic, there are a couple of things. Evidence from OH is that the same phenomena there (incredibly fast start) has slowed. Yesterday was the first day in one sample county that R ballots exceeded D.

3) So my "at current pace" I don't think will hold.
4) I expect it will be close, but I think they will slow and come up short of their 650,000 number.

5) Second, realize all we know is that these are ballots that come from D or R requests. It says nothing about how people actually VOTED.
Read 8 tweets
15 Oct
1) The Hunter Biteme saga illustrates something I've (unsuccessfully) been trying to explain to some peeps on Twit, namely immigration & trade right now are NOT the issues.

They were in 2016, but I think virtually all the voters who wanted Trump to fix these . . .
1) contd . . . are pretty happy with the job Trump did on both. Right now, the nation has bigger, more immediate fish to fry.

2) Namely, this assault on America and the ideal of America itself. Part of this is the Biteme's have fully bought in to the "protected elites" status.
3) To them, America is merely a mechanism for getting them their money & status. It has nothing to do with the vast population of this country, where we are heading, or most of all the threats to it.
Read 11 tweets

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