Roko Profile picture
16 Oct, 15 tweets, 4 min read
The West should accept covid-19 defeat and move on. There was a time where we could have beaten it with good testing, border closures and lockdowns. But we didn't.

We should now cancel all government restrictions related to covid-19. News sites should stop reporting it.
Hospitals should prioritize people by age and simply stop making a fuss about the excess deaths that will result.

There will be a certain amount of death that results from this, but the cost we are paying in ruined lives for everyone is too high to justify it.
The likely death toll from ending the "fuss" about covid-19 will be something like 0.25% of the population, with some fraction (maybe another 0.5%) permanently injured via long-covid.

Most who die of covid-19 will be older and will have already got something out of life.
In terms of life-years lost, locking up 100% of the population for 5% of their lives is worse than allowing 0.25% of the population to die. And that is the trade that we are stumbling into.
If we don't surrender to #COVID19, there is a danger that this situation will drag on into late 2021 or even 2022 without a clear end. It's not worth it.

It was worth it in the initial spring period because the risk from the disease was still uncertain, and ...
... there was a chance that the lockdowns etc could actually win against covid.

In some places they actually did win! But not in the West (possible exception: New Zealand).
The other reasonable option other than surrender is to mount an effective response. That means eradicating the disease, which means people need to be obedient and the government needs a large amount of control over our lives for a focused period of a few months.
But I just can't see that happening, whereas surrender is a viable option.
Just a graph to show what happened: several countries (such as China, Taiwan) did actually win against #COVID19. But the USA now has something like 10,000 times more cases per day than the countries that won.

This is defeat, we need to accept it.

ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
It's probably still a good idea to wear a mask to reduce your own dose if/when you get it though.
Also relevant: when will we get approved vaccines?

25 million people in the USA will get a vaccine in roughly April of next year.

Add in another several months to expand that to everyone, and it'll be at least mid summer 2021 for all to be vaccinated.

goodjudgment.io/superforecasts…
It would probably be best to just give out the vaccines as soon as possible to vulnerable groups and remove all the restrictions.
Mid-2021 is when most people will get a #COVID19 vaccine.
Lastly, we should keep the mortality stats for people under 50 in perspective. This is a disease that is almost totally harmless to people who still have most of their life ahead of them.

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More from @RokoMijicUK

18 Oct
How deadly is #COVID19?

It varies a lot by age, which confuses us.

In fact, the mortality risk from covid-19 is almost exactly the same as 1 year worth of "normal" background risk. You just get an extra year of risk compressed into a few weeks. Image
But young people don't have very much risk per year. So deleting a teen, 20, 30, 40 or 50 year-old's year via lockdowns is 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘩 𝘪𝘵.

medium.com/wintoncentre/h…
Year-long Lockdowns only start to become worth it on a per-person basis if:

(years of life remaining)×(risk of dying of #COVID19) > (years of lockdown)×(quality of life decrease from lockdown)
Read 8 tweets
18 Oct
Omega informs you that there is a series of 10 illnesses, each identical to #COVID19. Choose:

"Lock down": everyone will be unemployed/locked at home for 15 years, but 0 deaths

"Surrender": 5% of the population dies from disease, mostly people 65 and older & very few young.
OK, Omega is generous and gives you a third option:

"China Control": Give control of our police, public health and smartphone privacy to Chinese consultants who will implement a solution similar to what worked in China, for 15 years. (We still have military control)
That means:

- Government knows your location/contacts at all times
- You can be stopped by police and tested at any time, if +ve you get taken away for isolation with no right to refuse
- But because it works, this stuff almost never actually happens
Read 4 tweets
18 Oct
Human life without signalling games would be meaningless and almost completely worthless for most people.

Signalling is so utterly fundamental to humans that we certainly shouldn't even consider proposals to replace the signal with the underlying truth.
Imagine hetero dating, but without signalling.

You'd submit yourself to an automatic test of various types of quality and input preferences into the computer about how you trade off different qualities in the opposite gender. A match would appear. You'd be automatically married.
You'd move in, maybe take some pills to increase sexual desire if you needed it and have sex. That's it.

No dates, no flirting, no looking at clothes/hobbies/beliefs. Just a computer match.
Read 4 tweets
17 Oct
Q: "Where are All the Successful Rationalists?"

Personal success is determined by conscientiousness more than anything else. (Assuming you have decent IQ, like 115 or so). If you are determinied to keep trying, to stick at stuff etc, you usually win.

applieddivinitystudies.com/2020/09/05/rat…
Rationality techniques are notoriously useless at creating conscientiousness.

The other factor is luck/numbers.

There are a lot of people, but not that many rationalists. The others have 8 billion attempts to succeed.
Success in the modern world means being a "Linkedin person".

Lots of impressive achievements and credentials! (but nothing too innovative or controversial)

Happy! Smiling!

Hard working!

Conformist!
Read 7 tweets
16 Oct
I just realized that you could make exactly the same statistical observations for violent crime.

The most violent criminals are men, but only by a small gap. There's massive systemic discrimination holding women back in the field of violent crime.

www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-…
You see the only reason the best violent criminals are male is that there are fewer male violent criminals.

If we stopped discriminating against women and gave them equal participation in violent criminality, they could reach the same peak performance as the best men.
The entire pipeline from normal citizen to serial killer is biased against women:

- criminal gangs are less likely to trust females as enforcers
- the police are less likely to suspect a woman, so less likely to arrest her
- courts are less likely to send her to prison
Read 7 tweets
16 Oct
A lot of people are critical of this, but Aella will find thousands upon thousands of men willing to marry her despite her having an OnlyFans. Some of them will even be high-quality men who are weirdly OK with going down the aisle with a "woman of the night".
And @0x49fa98 just absolutely wins the thread with this:

Marrying Aella would be a fantastic deal for most men. She's attractive, intelligent, rich. Being a "woman of the night" is a downside, but many men will be choosing between that and a frumpy older woman who has an IQ of 90, is a size 20 and smokes.
Read 5 tweets

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