1/ State polls are much harder to conduct than national polls, because of smaller populations and different compositions of those populations.

Everyone admits that one of the hardest groups to poll are white working class, hard to poll because they don't answer their phones.
2/ Pennsylvania and the Upper Midwest have tons of white working class making them exactly the places most likely to have non-response bias problems favoring Trump.
3/ The pollsters supposedly fixed the white working class response problem after 2016, but their 2018 state polls were almost exactly as wrong as they were in 2016. Sean Trende at RCP did an analysis and this was the result...

4/ Here's the chart that Trende came up with...
"Moreover, almost all of the errors pointed the same way: Republicans overperformed the polls in every Midwestern state except for Minnesota Senate/governor & Wisconsin Senate (none of which were particularly competitive). This is true, incidentally, across time period"
6/I obviously believe that Trump is doing much better than the polls allege, although he's still down 2 or 3 points nationally, since the polling average is +9%

But, he's killing it in the state polls because of the non-response bias, and regular sample bias.
7/And he's REALLY killing it in the those places that have the heaviest concentrations of white working class, meaning the Rust Belt..

When Nate Silver says Trump has a 3% advantage in the electoral college, this is what he means.
8/You may have forgotten, but the mighty Nate Silver says Trump has a 3% EC advantage.

9/A 3% EC advantage means that, according to Nate, Biden has to win the popular vote by 3% in order to have a 50/50 chance at winning the Electoral College. 🤣
10/ For that 3% popular vote to be a win for Biden, however, the votes have to be spread relatively equitably around the country. If California and Washington are super fired up to drive out the Orange Man, it doesn't necessarily help Biden win Michigan or Pennsylvania.
11/All of this is by way of explaining why I'm so confident that Trump will win. He's not in bad shape in the places he needs to win, despite the wildly out-of-wack national polls.
12/And he's still got two & a half weeks to personally scour the Rust Belt to find every working class white who didn't vote in 2016.

In fact, he's got 2.2 million volunteers out their knocking on doors, more volunteers than even Obama had in 2008.

13/This is pretty much exactly what Dr. President Trump did last time. He goes extra hard in the final month, doing 2 and 3 rallies a day, whipping up enthusiasm in the swing states and sending his fired-up minions out to drag in more votes.
14/Trump's Get-Out-the-Vote machine is going gangbusters right now. Remember those record 18 million votes for Trump in the primaries? Twice as many as Obama in 2012? That was a test run for his GOTV effort.

15/One more thing, apparently, non-response rates to polls are pretty close across all ethnicities. It's not just white working class, but also Hispanic & black working classes.

That means, if hispanics & black men are breaking for Trump, it'd be very easy for polls to miss them
16/I've been saying for a while that Hispanics are breaking for El Caudillo Trump, and they are. But the MSM polls don't see it, for the same reason they don't see the size of white working class voters. Non-response bias.

Conclusion: Trump wins bigly. No doubt about it.

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More from @JayFiveK

16 Oct
It's hilarious watching Trump steamroll the churlish Savannah Guthrie.
Meanwhile, over on ABC, George Stephanopoulos is gently tongue-bathing Joe Biden's scrotum.
The rheumy eyed Joe Biden slowly mumbling through his memorized answers.
Read 18 tweets
14 Oct
My guess is that response rates have crashed. In 1997 rates were around 35%. In 2016 they were at 9%. Who knows what they are today. (I've heard sub 5%)

If certain groups of people (i.e. working class whites) don't answer the phone, your poll has a representativeness problem.
There are some academic articles on this subject. This is a good one from 2018.

Here's another from Pew in 2017.

Read 5 tweets
12 Oct
They never pan to the assembled masses in Toledo. There are no crowd shots from this "drive-in rally".

How many people showed up? Someone must have taken some photos? Let's see the size of the audience.
Oh, crap, it's worse than I expected.

"More than 50 vehicles were jammed in the UAW parking lot for the drive-in gathering. Anyone who had the audacity to drive a foreign car was relegated to parking across the street."

"jammed" LOLOLOLOL!

Oh, Lord, I'm dying.


Biden's drive in rally in Toledo. Feel the energy, yet?
Read 4 tweets
10 Oct
1/ I've said this before, Biden's whole strategy is to focus on the Rust Belt.

He needs to win Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. He needs all four of them.

If he loses one, he's done for.
2/ Beyond flipping those Rust Belt states back to the Dems, he's got nothing else.

If he thought he could win in Florida, Texas, North Carolina or Georgia, he'd be hitting those states hard. He's not.
3/ But, now he's got a bigger problem, Trump is starting to peel off Nevada. So, he and Karmelo had to rush out to Nevada, today, to try to shore up his support in that state.

He did a drive by in Arizona, (see the enthusiasm below) But NV was the real focus of the trip
Read 5 tweets
7 Oct
Oh no! Trump has run out of money!

There’s no way he can beat Hillary’s bazillion dollar ad buying in swing states!

Game over, man! Game over!!!
Yes, Trump has less money than Biden. But, didn’t seem to help Hillary last time.

Perhaps there’s a limit to the effectiveness of political ads? Perhaps a point of diminishing returns. Is it possible that the five millionth ad is not really that effective? (Hint: yes)
Trump is now spending big money on Get Out The Vote efforts in key states. Remember how he got so many votes in an uncontested primary? (Doubled Obama’s 2013 total.)

That was GOTV practice run. Door knocking & personal contact.
Read 4 tweets
7 Oct
1/ Trump should have been a release valve for the anger and frustration of ordinary Americans. That's what populism has historically been in America, a release valve.

But the Derp State and the media worked overtime thwarting Trump and his mostly middle-of-the-road policies.
2/ Trump is not a radical figure, historically, his policies are not out of the mainstream.

But the reaction to him was so over-the-top and the demonization of his followers so complete, that the populist sentiments of the American people continue to be bottled up.
3/Because Trump was thwarted, as bad as the anger and frustration were in 2016, it's now a thousand times worse.

The populist sentiment, which usually dissipates after a few years, is now stronger than ever.
Read 12 tweets

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