Deep-Dive: Pandemic Planning - Then, Now

Our “Public Health Experts” are making recommendations on:

-Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)
-Risk-benefit in public health
-Ethical issues

Which break with all previous plans prepared by public health institutions (CDC/WHO)

1
What I did was look for Influenza Pandemic Plans/Recommendations created by our top Public Health Organizations in the past: CDC and WHO

I looked at Influenza because it’s also a respiratory infection which has garned alot of attention in the past 25 years: H1N1, H1N5 etc

2
CDC: Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI) for Pandemic Influenza, National & Community Measures, 2006

This was the addendum to the 2006 CDC Flu Pandemic plan

NPI : wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12…

2006 Flu Plan cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-r…

3
CDC (cont)

It’s interesting how back then they had a little bit more common sense

If Pandemic Hits...

Stop Contact Tracing:
“Patient isolation and tracing and quarantine of contacts should cease, as such measures will no longer be feasible or useful”

4
CDC (cont)

NPIs not very effective:
“Reports from the 1918 influenza pandemic indicate that social-distancing measures did not stop or appear to dramatically reduce transmission, but research studies that might assess partial effectiveness are apparently unavailable”

5
CDC (cont)

Masks don’t really work:
“No controlled studies assess the efficacy of mask use in preventing transmission of influenza viruses”

“Mask wearing by the general population is not expected to have an appreciable impact on transmission, but should be permitted”

6
CDC (cont)

This one kills me because it’s so obvious

-Learn info about virus charcteristics (IFR, who it kills)
-Make informed policy decisions
-Adjust policies according to new information
-Informed decisions require consideration of how costly and disruptive measures are

7
WHO: Pandemic Influenza Risk Management 2017

The WHO put out a new guide to replace “Pandemic Influenza: WHO guidance document”

Why?

New guide “underscores the need for appropriate and timely risk assessment for evidence-based decision-making”

8

Link:apps.who.int/iris/bitstream…
WHO: (cont)

They didn’t rename it by mistake

The WHO makes it clear that many different factors need to be weighed and balanced in performing an analysis

When have Fauci, Redford or Birx presented a COVID-19 Risk Management Analysis showing us anything other than deaths?

9
WHO (cont)

Funny enough, in the same document the WHO recommends that in assessing the seriousness of the disease, they should look for:

“Pre-existing immunity in the population, as measured by the level of cross-reactive antibodies”

You can’t make this stuff up!

10
CDC: Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza — United States, 2017

This is the NPI addendum to updated CDC Pandemic Influenza Plan 2017

New Priorities:
-Rapid Vaccine development
-Testing
-Better Respiratory Protection for HCWs

11
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
CDC (cont)

They give pretty clear indications about what NPIs are appropriate in a severe novel virus pandemic
-mask wearing by sick
-no business/restaurant/bar closings
-school closings, but Flu much more dangerous to children
-no church closings
-no mention of lockdowns

12
Even if the pandemic is of a “Very High Severity”, there are no severe NPIs recommended

No lockdowns, no business/church closings

And please note, that the 1918 Spanish Flu was the only “Very High Severity” pandemic

We are not in a 1918 situation

13
CDC (cont)

The CDC has itself recommended that these factors be considered:
-ethical considerations
-feasibility of NPIs
-NPIs targeted towards high risk groups
-getting the public to buy in
-balancing public health benefits and social costs

14
WHO: Addressing Ethical Issues in Pandemic Influenza Planning

This assessment of a pandemic’s ethical issues concludes: ”the tragedy will be even worse if society ignores the ethical concerns”

It’s not a single variable analysis about deaths

Link: who.int/ethics/publica…

15
Conclusions:
-Lockdowns, masks, business/church closings have never been a way to manage a resporatory pandemic - even in a worst case 1918 Flu scenario
-They refuse to do a simple public health Risk-Benefit analysis in order to assess the risks posed by lockdowns

16
Conclusions (cont)
-There has been zero consideration for the trampling of ethical concerns
-Everything they are doing/recommending is contrary to their own plans and recommendations
-Nothing makes sense

Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised since we’ve given away many freedoms

17
So yeah, they just seem to be making it up as they go along

That’s it

Thanks for reading this far

If you’ve learned anything please RT the first tweet

Thanks!

18
P.S. - The CDC was actually very thorough in their assessment of the efficacy of NPIs

They even shared their list of sources and it is comprehensive

These current NPI studies are rife with confirmation bias

Link: cdc.gov/nonpharmaceuti…

19

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More from @gummibear737

17 Oct
Considering leaving Twitter

What annoys me is that my bigger followers hang me out to dry because they don’t want to be harassed by the “Science Expert”

Alot of us volunteer our time to provide a scientific counter balance

Fair enough, but if u won’t stand by us then good luck
You are not following my logic

We make great efforts to offer solid scientific data, but we are relegated to cheerleaders because our top followers look at our data but never promote

Like we are leperous science guys

Either we suck and post fake science or we do a good job
Read 5 tweets
16 Oct
Right now there are 2 Europes: Big 1st Wave and Small 1st Wave

Big: UK, Spain, Italy, etc >500 deaths/mil (CFR now close to IFR)

Small: Poland, Czechia, Hungary, etc < 100 deaths/mil

Seasonal return of SARS-CoV-2 = cases spike in both

But the resulting death is different

1
Let’s start with Big 1st Wave

I’m using UK and Belgium as examples

They were hit hard in March-May

Now, seasonality kicks in and a second wave of cases begins

But, deaths are just a small wave

Deaths do not follow cases in growth

2
Small 1st wave countries were largely spared in the spring, mostly by locking down before the virus had significamtly spread

Here, I’m using Czechia and Poland as examples

They are also seeing a second wave of cases, but this time deaths are rising proportional to cases

3
Read 5 tweets
13 Oct
I predict Trump wins based on data I’ve seen

It will be a close race, Trump might lose, but the outcome is not a foregone conclusion
This chart is a big reason

Major pro-Republican swing in voter registration patterns in swing states
Also, have a listen to this NYT podcast about how life long generational Democrats view Trump

nytimes.com/2020/10/09/pod…
Read 4 tweets
11 Oct
My Fauci Deep Dive

America's most famous public health expert:
-Exalted deity to some
-Embodiment of evil to others

What's the truth?

It's complicated...

It starts slow, but boy does it get good

Please RT this first tweet if you learned something new and interesting

1
Any retrospective on Fauci has to start in the 1980's with the arrival of HIV/AIDS

A trained immunologist, he was named director of the National Institute for Allergens and Infections Disease (NAIAD) in 1984, and has held this position since (36 yrs)

AIDS was his first test

2 Image
Initially, Fauci was the target for the frustration of the Gay community which was being disproportionately affected by AIDS

Many were dying and treatments were not coming fast enough

Larry Kramer famously penned this critique of Fauci: villagevoice.com/2020/05/28/an-…

3 Image
Read 34 tweets
9 Oct
Hey NYC, congratulations!

You’ve most likely reached herd immunity

These lockdowns are asinine...not necessary to close Broadway

I’ll prove it

First, you’re testing like maniacs and you can’t find new cases

Other cities around the world are finding plenty of cases

1/5
Second, hardly anybody is being hospitalized

You’re averaging 30-40 daily hospitalizations for the past two and a half months

This is not because NYCers have become mask ninjas

2/5
Third, you’re averaging about five deaths per day for the last two and a half months

Again, NYCers haven’t become ninja social distancers...ninja social justice warrior is more like it

3/5
Read 6 tweets
7 Oct
Since @lpachter insists on repeated hit jobs on @MLevitt_NP2013, I thought I would look at some of the wisdom that Lior lays out in this thread

Unfortunately for Lior, I was in the middle of looking through NIAID project funding for 2020

Let's see how he did

1
So @MLevitt_NP2013 was replying to this tweet by me about how much funding the NIAID received relative to the impact that allergens and infectious disease have on mortality in the US

Dr. Levitt replied that people should not be surprised by this (I am)

2
In my tweet, I specified that NIAID received the "most money for their projects"

I never said funding or budget

According to the NIH Reporter, the NIAID has spent the largest amount on their active projects

link: projectreporter.nih.gov/reporter_summa…

$700 mil more than cancer

3
Read 13 tweets

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