Hello! Here's my occasional thread on coronavirus stats globally.

Today:

- Cases still climbing globally.
- US heading into a third wave of cases that could be the biggest yet.
- Europe & UK still a disaster area.
- Mexico, India, Brazil: One and done?
Big picture: Global daily cases now comfortably over 400K per day, and still rising.

Deaths remain on an elevated plateau but the future direction is unclear. I’d note that the low days appear to be getting higher — usually a bad sign. We’ll see.
You can divide countries into two buckets:

- “Europe” style, featuring successive waves of cases moderated by various govt interventions.

- And then there is Mexico, India, Brazil (& possibly Argentina?), which seem to have one single massive wave and no sign of a second. Yet.
🇺🇸The US, of course, has somehow managed to combine both patterns together.🇺🇸
US: Whoa — big jump in cases. The steep increase looks as if the third peak will rival the second in size.

Deaths (lagging indicator) running at 714 per day. Not clear when they will follow cases.
India: Continued good progress on cases and deaths.
Brazil: Continued good progress on cases and deaths.
Russia’s second wave of cases and deaths both now far exceed the first.
Spain looked like it was dealing with its second wave but in fact remains stuck somewhere near peak 2.

Deaths are repeatedly over 200 per day.
Argentina: Still looking for the peak of the first wave. Deaths sitting at just under 400 per day.
Colombia: Difficult spot for Colombia — not clear where cases are going next. The bad news is obviously that they remain elevated.

Deaths still sinking — so that is good news.
Peru: Doing a really good job on cases, which look to be heading under 2500 per day.

Deaths now just 70 per day.
Mexico: Cases still in decline. Can Mexico get under 4000 per day?

Deaths also gradually stepping down.
France: Cases have breached 30K per day and the running average is still increasing.

Deaths increasing too. Repeatedly over 100 per day and heading to 200 per day.
UK: Cases still going through the roof.

Deaths following them up. The running average is now well over 100. Daily highs heading toward 150 per day.
Pantheon on the US:

- Hospital admissions rising.
- Is Covid getting back into the elderly pop?
- Worst states include ND, Wisc, SD, Mont, Neb, NY.
Europe: Just awful. Deaths in the mid 100s per day and rising.
Israel: Lockdown is having some effect.
You can look up your own country at Worldometers. worldometers.info/coronavirus/#c…
The risk of COVID-19 infection on flights is 'very low,' and 1 infected passenger would take 54 hours to spread the virus to others onboard, a US government study found businessinsider.com/covid-19-fligh…
The US has entered its 3rd — and possibly largest — wave of coronavirus cases. Experts say states should 'pull back.' businessinsider.com/us-third-wave-…
Coronavirus fallout can morph into a global financial crisis, the World Bank's chief economist says markets.businessinsider.com/news/1029688877
Remdesivir proved to be the first useful tool we have in treating COVID-19 patients. Now, the US government wants to find out more about how it could be supercharged with other drugs. businessinsider.com/nih-coronaviru…
The Lancet: "The current rate of operational false-positive swab tests in the UK is unknown; preliminary estimates show it could be somewhere between 0·8% and 4·0%."

[i.e. when your crazy uncle insists that Covid is all false positives, he's wrong.]

thelancet.com/journals/lanre…

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More from @Jim_Edwards

15 Oct
Hello! Here's my occasional thread on coronavirus stats globally.

Today:

- US: Heading into a third wave. Deaths technically rising.
- Russia: Out of control.
- UK & Europe: Deaths running at 100s per day. Image
Big picture: Highest day of cases globally, ever, yesterday. Heading to 400K per day.

Deaths now running at over 6000 per day globally. The death plateau is elevated and rising. ImageImage
🌍Although the number of deaths is not near the April peak it is 75% of the way there.🌍
Read 21 tweets
7 Oct
Hello! Here's my occasional thread on coronavirus stats globally.

Today:

- UK: Deaths + hospital admissions rising.

- US: Flat but hospital cases rising.

- Russia has lost control of new cases; death rate is rising.

- Most of Europe is in the middle of a huge second wave.
Big picture: Infections are still rising globally and deaths remain elevated.
US: Cases are slowly moving upward.

Deaths are steady at just over 700 people per day.
Read 23 tweets
30 Sep
Hello! Here's my occasional thread on coronavirus stats globally.

Today:

- 2nd waves in UK, Spain & France are bigger than the 1st waves but deaths are lower.
- Testing in 1st wave was lower, of course.
- US at a turning point: plateau or 3rd wave?
- India & Brazil: Good news!
Big picture: Cases still rising globally but rate of spread has slowed considerably.

Same pattern with deaths: Rising but not fast.
US: Cases are at a turning point. Plateau or third wave?

Deaths have settled into a plateau at around 755 per day.
Read 24 tweets
30 Sep
Trump’s strategy for victory in November is hiding in plain sight.

He talks about it all the time, even during last night’s debate.

Thread…
On-the-day votes at polling stations are more likely to be Republican.
businessinsider.com/the-candidate-…
When polls close, vote counts may thus show an advantage for Trump — the so-called “red mirage.” But as the mail-in ballots are counted, we’re likely to see a “blue shift” toward the Democrats.
businessinsider.com/trump-creates-…
Read 10 tweets
25 Sep
Hello! Here's my occasional thread on coronavirus stats globally.

Today:

- UK & Spain in real trouble.
- Covid deaths broken down by race and sex.
- Sweden: No longer among the worst for deaths.
- Focus on “herd immunity” debate.
Big Picture: Cases still rising globally.

Daily deaths ticked upward globally. Best case: It’s a blip and we’re still on a plateau. Worst case: They’re trending up again.
US: Cases have settled into a plateau. Progress has stopped.

Deaths (lagging indicator) continue to tick downward.
Read 34 tweets
23 Sep
Hello! Here's my occasional thread on coronavirus stats globally.

Today:

- US: ”Unambiguously bad” rise in cases; hospital admissions follow.
- Europe: now worse than first wave.
- UK: new lockdown restrictions.
- Even Sweden considering new lockdown.
- India: Past the peak!
Big picture: Cases rising slowly globally.

Global deaths are in an elevated plateau. Not clear which way they are going.
US: “The national U.S. Covid data over the past few days are unambiguously bad,” says Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Cases up, and trend in hospital admissions is set to rise soon too.
Read 24 tweets

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