My theory is that in the medium term electorates will severely punish governments that fail in their core functions.
The reverse is also true.
And ‘severe’ punishment isn’t just being voted out. It is independence movements. It is being out of power for a generation. It is new governance paradigms.
By failing at the pandemic and at the same time having failed at Brexit the government has created the circumstances for its own existential moment.
This is quite remarkable.
It not only suggests incompetence but on a more fundamental level an inability, by individuals and institutions, to contend with the reality of the world.
Advocating a no deal Brexit is a very unfortunate example. I don’t think this reflects a prioritisation of Brexit vs the union. Rather the failure to understand that the two are materially linked.
Perhaps this is a variant of the marketplace of ideas wheeze. It’s not so much ideas, it’s much more a market place of functionality.
Polling Scotland isn’t just the canary in the coal mine, it is the mine collapsing.

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More from @Sime0nStylites

18 Oct
1. Do you remember the Ennio Morricone composed theme tune to the Good the Bad and the Ugly? I ask because it began to rattle through my head as I read today’s Sunday Times.
2. I am the simplest of men, an old hermit whose best days are lost in the mists of time. It is not for me to indicate with my staff the specific qualities of a particular piece. But. But. For your Sunday morning pleasure I thought it might be helpful to highlight a few.
3. In no particular order, I first draw your attention to this most remarkable piece. Perhaps consider it an amuse bouche before we move into meatier fare.…
Read 26 tweets
20 Sep
Time for a New Prime Minister

1. Brexit would have been challenge enough but with the pandemic at the same time the government has had to deal with the most severe threats to the UK’s health and economy.
2. We do not need a complicated algorithm to grade the government’s performance too date.

It has failed most of its tests.

During the first wave, the slowness to lock down cost lives and lengthened the period of confinement, causing even worse economic damage.
3. The UK has the fifth largest global death toll and its economy is projected by the OECD to contract by 10.1% this year, greater than the Eurozone as a whole, the US and Japan.
Read 22 tweets
17 Sep
My entirely speculative theory is that the whole sordid mess is explained by the failure of Frost’s negotiating strategy.
The ‘they’ll give in if we stick to our guns’ plan hasn’t worked, and, the NI protocol means no deal is not political cost free.
The master stroke (I suspect a Frost / Cummings plan) is to repudiate parts of the WA to increase negotiating leverage (pay attention to us!) and reduce the cost of no deal.

But unfortunately...
Read 10 tweets
10 Sep
A key question is whether the government agreed the WA in bad faith (ie knew it would renege on parts of it).
If this is the case (and there appears to be some evidence for it), the implications are startling.
If the EU had thought sections of the WA would later be unilaterally disapplied then there would not have been a deal (at that point).
Read 10 tweets
9 Sep
I’m now going to give the five dimensional chess explanation of the current debacle...
It goes something like this.
The government is in a terrible mess.
Read 11 tweets
6 Sep
1. Another Sunday marooned on the desert island of pandemic and Brexit, I reflect once again on the burning question of our time:

Is the government’s appetite for no deal evidence of shambles and incompetence or is it a clever negotiating tactic that reveals a deeper plan?
2. Let’s take shambles and incompetence first.

In this line of argument, the government is so clueless that it might actually think no deal during a global pandemic is a good idea or at least not a really really bad idea.
3. At first blush, the evidence of incompetence seems compelling.

As an unamuse bouche I refer you to describing no deal as an ‘Australian deal’ (shudder).

Even a one thousand tweet thread would not be sufficient but instead perhaps consider the following...
Read 24 tweets

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