Laeeth Profile picture
17 Oct, 6 tweets, 3 min read
I wonder what Andrew Lilico thinks the incidence of long term covid symptoms sufficiently bad to end a career might be. Because it's an assumption that you have the vulnerable and then everyone else who probably won't die and if they don't die they will be fine if they just man
up. The UK has a metabolically sick population too - obesity is only part of the problem of higher susceptibility due to metabolic disease.

I wrote in early May that it's a mistake to focus on the mortality rate. It's still a mistake to focus on the mortality rate.

Read a
group for people with long covid. Now try to put bounds on the incidence of long covid. I think @paulg had it about right in his personal sample.

I favour a much smaller state than @andrew_lilico . But I think it's a mistake to conflate your values in relation to ideal policy
with your beliefs about what might be true. I think the more libertarian sorts of people are making light of the consequences of covid because the policy measures required are unpalatable.

That's like saying the Fed shouldn't have acted to stop the money supply contracting in
the 1930s. Okay - maybe the Fed was a bad idea, but once you have a central bank then just letting the money supply contract is a bad idea.

I find it really quite surprising pro-liberty types don't try to see more clearly policy measures that would improve things at root cause.
#DeregulateTesting and restore freedom of association to allow people to create their own borders (which includes the right of a property owner to exclude people), and deregulation of home schooling. Those would be a great start.

@mattwridley @matthewlesh @eamonnbutler

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More from @Laeeth

17 Oct
Do we overrate the importance of abstractions and underrate the importance of the fine texture of the code, unit tests, composition based on meaning, build, plasticity of code, avoidance of boilerplate? @incomputable @WalterBright @atilaneves
On the economics of programming,
there is much to be written. I'm thinking of something like the economics of industrial organisation and of the capital structure (Hayek) but applied to code, programming and collaboration. @paulmromer

Google employed @halvarian to work on the economics of information. Is it
time to work on the economics of code and of programming languages?

At @SymmetryInvest we think two numbers dominate: calendar time taken to get to the first useful version, and the total cost of ownership. Software is eating the world and one consequence of that is that the
Read 18 tweets
6 Oct
You know buying things is difficult because making good choices depends on having good taste and that's almost excluded in public tenders and it's especially tough in a crisis. That's the problem with private provision, public financing. There a limited amount you can do
contractually too when it comes to complex products and services. Bureaucracy and process can't be a substitute for good judgement and knowing what to do to get the valued service provider to do what you paid them to do. There were quite a few stories on the NHS turning down
offers from private companies to provide PPE and the like. Probably procurement is in need of an overhaul - it's definitely too bureaucratic and not at all adaptive.

But when you get problems like this it's a sign that an organisation is too big. Brexit was about sovereignty,
Read 7 tweets
5 Oct
Critical processes should be written in strict programming languages, probably functional ones. At @SymmetryInvest we wrote…
Symmetry Integration Language (SIL) for integrating processes across the firm. A feature branch has type inference inequalities for arguments and return types and you can call C++ if you have the headers and DLL (thanks, CERN).
HT @SuspiciousPleb
Robert Schadek at @SymmetryInvest said "All spreadsheets must die!". Seems extreme? Well it was a fun talk, but actually was he wrong?

Read 4 tweets
3 Oct
Yeah but you know, once you understand that, and it wasn't exactly cutting edge fifteen years ago then you can also realise that whilst signalling is a feature of human society there might be a bit more to life than just signalling. In fact people are so obsessed with signalling
that after a certain point somebody with insight might just say forget this game - I don't want to win it; build something in complete disregard of the rules of the game about signalling. Funnily enough you won't have any competition doing that. What is valued changes over time
and guess what - there's a rhythm to life, and with a bit of awareness of what's going on beneath the surface, knowledge of history and the deeper drivers of events you can do things that make sense in seeming complete disregard of what you ought to do to optimally signal whilst
Read 7 tweets
29 Sep
The government is gambling on a vaccine, just as we said in May. I never vote because it only encourages them, but I didn't think you were gamblers.

That's not very adaptive. I thought you were in favour of being adaptive.

#deregulatetesting #liberatevitamind from NICE,
allow doctors to use clinical judgement rather than the hated dictator NICE; raise the cap on home schooling to permit micro schools; fund the pandemic like a war with Pandemic War Loan. Real rates are negative.

These simple steps are consistent with conservative values and
represent the removal of impediments to decentralised adaptiveness in the face of a crisis that is first of all a crisis of faux expertise and central planning.

What do these experts know? Less than a kid on 4chan, as best I can tell. So why not stop pretending. It would be
Read 7 tweets
29 Sep
@cjsnowdon is confused. The original mistake was forgetting PPE and ventilators in "best in class" pandemic plan written by PHE. Then not closing borders because they pretended it was flu. Then PHE refused to allow UCL and Royal Free to validate their tests by giving them a
sample of the virus and they blocked private labs from testing too. So nobody knew the true situation and that delayed lockdown. Then the government ordered the civil service do mass testing much much earlier than anyone seems to be discussing. Then the civil service sat on
their behinds thinking about it; I am pretty sure that's the biggest reason why Sedwill was fired - he didn't go his job and by his dereliction of duty caused devastation in lives and costs consequences.

Then there was a very sensible mass testing plan (leaked to C4 I believe)
Read 8 tweets

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