🚨Wizard Predicts: #Biden will win Miami-Dade County by a lower margin than Hillary due to an increase in turnout for #Trump among Cubans and Venezuelans.
Latest tends show Biden is performing slightly better in the Tampa Bay Area as compared to Hillary...
But Trump is doing better than he did in 2016 along the Atlantic Coast and widening his margins in north central FL, the panhandle, & SW FL.
Biden’s increase in Tampa and possible increase in Jacksonville is unlikely to offset Trump’s increases elsewhere.

#Trump is on a path to win FL by ~2%.

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More from @Wizard_Predicts

18 Oct
Why are polls are so unreliable???

Is it bias? Conspiracy? Poor methods?

Well, it's complicated. But I'll try to explain.

(1/17)
#Polling has drastically evolved. The dawn of modern election Polling began in 1936 after #Gallup successfully predicting Roosevelt would win. The polling of that era consisted of in-person interviews conducted by a professional interviewer to minimize nonresponse bias. (2/17)
Each interviewer was given a highly detailed set of sampling quotas to meet. The quota sampling was nothing more than a systematic effort to force the poll sample to fit a national profile. (3/17)
Read 17 tweets
14 Oct
The latest early voter data from Wisconsin’s WOW counties show Trump is improving on ‘16 margins. This is key because R’s in those counties drifted away from him in 2016. It appears R’s are coming come.
If Trump can improve in the WOW counties and make modest gains in counties like Crawford, Grant, Marathon, Wood, Waupaca, Douglas, Ashland, Sawyer, he can carry Wisconsin. The offset Biden is receiving in counties like like Columbia and Sauk will not be sufficient.
Trump does not have to max out support in Racine or Kenosha counties. He only needs to be keep it competitive in the far southeast, so long as he makes gains in the North Woods & southwestern.
Read 9 tweets
10 Oct
Why in the hell is the SDNY prosecuting Steve Bannon??? Even if we assume Bannon committed a fraud -- which he did not -- the SDNY has no jurisdiction to prosecute the case. It's an unconstitutional abuse of venue. The Bannon matter has no legitimate connection to NY.
Bannon's Build the Wall was not based in NY, it didn't operate in NY, it wasn't organized in NY, it didn't bank in NY, and the wall was not being built in NY.
All SDNY can do is to point to a few donors in NY. But those NY donors *do not* complain about being defrauded. The SDNY is abusing the federal venue statutes.
Read 4 tweets
8 Oct
If Trump wins the election, and the objective data points suggest he will, the first presidential debate will be viewed by historians as a success. It accomplished what it was meant to do — drag Biden into street fight, and make him look weak and unhinged. @Barnes_Law
What the Ben Sharpio’s of the world don’t understand is that Trump’s debate strategy was never about persuading them. It’s about convicting the plumber in Bucks County that Biden is weak and unable to lead. @Barnes_Law
Biden needed to look presidential and in control. Instead, he took the bait and played at Trump’s level. Same strategic error Marco Rubio made during the primaries. You don’t beat Trump by fighting him on his terms. @Barnes_Law
Read 4 tweets
14 Sep
THIS IS WHAT A HERO LOOKS LIKE:

Pictured is the female LASD Deputy after she and her partner were ambushed. She took ONE bullet to her jaw. Her partner was shot twice in the head. She was able to radio for help & apply first aid to her partner.

The NFL should STAND for her. 🇺🇸
She’s STANDING after being shot in the jaw. 🇺🇸

That requires a level of mental toughness the NFL kneelers will never know.
Read 5 tweets
10 Sep
It’s weird how NBA players can look solely a degraded and shaky cell phone video shot a long distance away, and conclude the short video clip is incontrovertible proof that the police were brutal and racist. @ScottAdamsSays
The NBA’s Replay Center is impressive. Each play is captured by multiple HD cameras. When a replay is triggered, the center can quickly review every camera angle, make numerous video enhancements, and consult with a bevy of experts to determine if the ref made the right call.
Yet even with all those resources, NBA players still sometimes dispute the center’s final rulings on the video.

But they never dispute the conclusion that the cops were racist bullies on video. After all, the whole thing is on video, they say.
Read 4 tweets

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