1/ Why I am voting NO on #prop25 @noonprop25ca . I will cover the dangers of what the original legislation #AB125 did by replacing cash bail with what is known as “Criminogenic Risk Assessments (CRA).” I will use this 🔥 paper by @benzevgreen
dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.114…

THREAD 🧵
2/ To start, the words Criminal Justice Reform, have become a hot topic in US politics. There is general consensus from both democrats and republicans alike that our system needs “reform”. Unfortunately, the “reform” movement can come under the guise of a simple shift of power.
3/ Foucault warned us about this: “The true objective of the reform movement.. was not so much to establish a new right to punish based on more equitable principles.. the reform of criminal law must be read as a strategy for the rearrangement of the power to punish..” Disc&Punish
4/ #prop25 will not establish an equitable antiracist system. For the most part, our carceral system and equity/antiracism are not compatible. Regardless, risk assessments are “rearrangements of the power to punish” disguised as “reform."
5/ CRA are most often used for pretrial detention, to determine whether one should be placed in jail before their trial to give a sentence and determine guilt or innocence. CRA’s are designed to predict if the defendant is a “flight risk” or will commit a crime before trial.
6/ Criminogenic risk assessments have become extremely popular in the US. Reasons for this are 2-fold: they claim to admit a flaw within the CJS, and also claim to be “objective” algorithms that will be unbiased and fair.
7/ A big issue with CRA’s is how the algorithm to predict risk is created. They often fail to factor in the actual harm of contact with the carceral system (from interaction with police, jail, prison, and release supervision). Instead risk is generated on individual behaviors.
8/ @s_j_prins writes about how CRA’s fail to consider how risk of recidivism (recommitting a crime after incarceration or while awaiting trial) differs from risk of committing a first crime, and the dangers of expanding CRA’s.

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
9/ This is because the population of individuals in which CRA’s are derived from are overwhelmingly exposed to the carceral machine, thereby producing a prediction model based on the already flawed and racist carceral system that disproportionately target BIPOC.
10/ CRA’s extend the power of the carceral system by giving more discretion to judges to make a decision whether an individuals should be placed in pre-trial detention (jail). There is no mandate to follow CRA’s and judges can pick and choose when to use them.
11/ CRA’s also validate the deeply flawed understanding that crime is the result of individual level factors and behaviors, that recuse our society and the carceral state from being the true predictors of crime.
12/ Risk assessments do not have the vision for abolition in mind, and in fact consolidate power to the judiciary and law enforcement through “objective” risk assessments. This is by no means progressive, and some have argued is actually regressive.
13/ What abolitionists and reformers agree on is that the terrible, racist, and unjust system of cash bail needs to be eliminated. But replacing it with an equally racist algorithm that will continue to harm those trapped by the carceral system is no better.
14/ So in conclusion. Vote no on prop 25. @noonprop25ca . We can do MUCH better than this, and we will. Through examples like @reimagine_la we know that we the people can re-imagine these oppressive systems. Risk assessments are not that.
15/ If you want a more in-depth look check out this work by @bailproject that covers how both cash bail and risk assessments perpetuate racist approaches that will not achieve true equity, and they offer better alternatives and examples:

bailproject.org/after-cash-bai…
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