1) 15 years ago I would have agreed with Ryan. But a lot has happened since then.

2) It's pretty clear now that the Von Mises/Hayek model ain't working.

3) According to Milton Friedman, we should have had phenomenal inflation by now. In that model, and that of the . . .
3) cont'd . . . classics, that inflation would have force gubment to cut spending or face such currency devaluation that the country would collapse. It hasn't.

4) Allowing for a small spike in gold prices, basically ALL the commodities are still pretty low priced.
5) Nowhere, at all, do you see hyperinflation associated with a multi-trillion debt. Why not?

6) In the 1990s, the word underwent a computer revolution. Contrary to Robert Gordon, who says this didn't have much impact on economic growth, it had PHENOMENAL impact.
7) Gordon should know better. It was HIS book that showed that we have not until recently properly measured the economic growth of the period 1880-1960. We UNDERESTIMATED that growth.

8) Same here, but on steroids.
9) Some 30 years later we STILL haven't properly monetized and capitalized the gains of the computer revolution. If we had, a Smart Phone would cost $5,000-6,000.

10) So what has happened? By not properly valuing the inputs of computers and tech, we have put ourselves into . .
10) contd . . . a 30-year-long DEflation. Steve Bannon is 100% correct when he says "China has been exporting deflation." So has Me-hee-co with illegal immigration.

Between China's slave-labor low labor costs and the impact of illegals and computers driving up . . .
10) contd . . . productivity, we have been caught in a perfect storm of deflation.

11) Now, add to that the Big Short and the Housing Bubble crash. More deflation.
12) This is why QE1, QE2 and we can go through QE25 didn't make a difference and won't make a difference.

13) There's not enough money to be printed to offset the lower prices of 1B Chinese slave laborers, or millions of illegals from 1985-2016.
14) Whether it's cars, most food items, houses, we are still in a regime of relatively stable, only slightly rising prices---

despite the fact that our products do everything except brush your teeth for you.

15) You now literally (if you choose) can have a House that . . .
15) contd . . . runs itself, adjusts its own lights, power, water, sewage and everything else.

I have a friend who controls his POOL LIGHTS through his iWatch.

16) You can get new printers for under $50. No, they don't last too long, but what do you expect?
17) PRIOR TO CELL PHONES, car fatalities per mile were plummeting (they started to rise with people talking and driving. A distraction of 2.6 sec is all that is needed for most accidents, but a cell phone user EVEN HANDS FREE is distracted for 6 seconds!)
18) Anyway, the point is they made cars phenomenally safe--and this is coming from a guy who LOVED the 60s muscle cars. (Photo of my 69 Super Sport Camaro wrecked while racing included).
19) I am not saying that spending doesn't have consequences, or that Republicans shouldn't in theory champion balanced budgets are a necessary control over POLITICIANS.

20) But I am saying that in the current nexis of history, our balanced budgets don't mean squat.
21) I think President Trump intuitively understands this because he has NOT made a big deal about it.

22) So, for concern trolls like Ryan to think that ANY successful politician, let alone a Republican, can run on balanced budgets is to completely fail to understand the . . .
22) contd . . . international economic situation.

23) Oh, and while talking about deflation, did I mention . . .

OIL???
24) Energy costs have plummeted and will continue to plummet as the US gains energy independence. Indeed, currently our biggest problem is not LOW energy prices but keeping oil prices high enough to maintain our domestic producers.

Who woulda thought that in the 1970s?
25) So Manny is right and Ryan is wrong. The old-line Republican low-tax, low-spend tentpoles, while not bad at all, are NOT the issues right now that are driving any voters to the polls. None.

26) Thank God President Trump can read the electorate & doesn't listen to the Ryans.

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More from @LarrySchweikart

20 Oct
1) Remember I said Friday I felt Trump had broken Biteme, that really the race was over and just had to be run out?

2) Since then, Trafalgar moved Trump 1 point closer in PA, but internals suggest a tie now.

3) Trump himself, for the third time, said they were up in NV.
4) FL GOP walk-ins outpaced Ds for the first time in a day. If this is the crest of the Ds VBM/walkins, they came up 200,000 short---or as much as 400,000 short there.

5) Several stories have appeared showing the YUT vote is way down on campus after campus (Shocked! I tell ya).
6) AZ has moved into the safe column.

7) Despite hysteria, NC is on a trajectory to be safe. Trump today said they were up in NC.

8) OH was never, ever in doubt. IA will be closer this time, but not in doubt.
Read 6 tweets
20 Oct
1) "Freeper" byecomey does a great job analyzing the purported DemoKKKrat advantage in NC.

2) The NC VBM i* unusually slanted towards Dems relative to other states because older Rs in NC still tend to be registered as Ds. Here’s the proof:
*In 2016, 44% of all age 65+ voters were registered Ds.
* But in 2016, only 37% of NC voters age 65+ voted Hillary. 60% voted Trump. cnn.com/election/2016/…
2) contd . . .
*Even if you assign every I & R 65+ voter to Trump, that still leaves a significant (16%) crossover D vote to Trump among the 65+ cohort. It’s probably closer to 25%.
*The VBM & early votes are disproportionately older.
Read 6 tweets
20 Oct
1) Because many of you are concerned about this, maybe I can throw some light on the PA decision.

2) It can be appealed. Likely will. If they are smart, they'll wait until they are sure to get ACB on the bench first.
3) I suspect--and Zen Master can correct--that because this was returned without a precedent setting ruling, the Court doesn't want to rule on all of these piecemeal.

4) My guess is they will package all of them in a single ruling on what constitutes the "cutoff" for votes.
5) As for PA, Rs added another NET 9,000 registrations last week. This alone is probably a sufficient buffer to an planned fraud.

6) I don't think PA will be the tipping point by the time these "votes" would even be used. I think the election will be called. Too many states.
Read 6 tweets
19 Oct
1) So I told you this was coming in JULY.

toptradeguru.com/news/dems-in-a…

"In Philadelphia, home to Temple U, Drexel, UPenn and LaSalle Univ, the 18-29 youth vote has gone from 23.1% 2016 and 12.5% in the midterms, to 11.7% in 2020 now."

2) But wait, this isn't the worst for them.
2) contd . . . Follow me on this.

ELECTION DAY is when the "yuts" really come out because of herding, mobilizing, etc.

3) To replace the (my projection -30%) shortfall on ED, they needed to be UP 30% in this category BEFORE election day.
4) I could be way off, but . . .

if the "Yut" vote is down 2/3 NOW????

5) It means my ED/final projection for 18-24s is gonna be way low.

6) They may be down nationally by 2/3 or more.

7) My estimate of a "missing" 1-1.5m Yuts could be way low. We might be looking at 2.5m
Read 5 tweets
19 Oct
Early voting data in battleground states shows Trump outpacing national polls giving Biden an edge washex.am/2GYgrfP

Wait, what? But . . . "muh North Carolina"
From the article: "Peggy Lehner, a Republican state senator in Ohio from a district Trump won in 2016, aren't painting such a rosy picture for his 2020 chances with the same constituency. His support hasn't "ebbed. It's crashed," Lehner, who will not run for reelection, said.
"He is really doing poorly among independents."

What they don't tell you is that Lehner is the ultimate bitter RINO cuz conservative-trending OH gave her the boot. She hated Trump & hates pro-lifers.

Her comment here is NOT at all what is happening in OH, where it's Trump +8
Read 4 tweets
19 Oct
1) So consider this: when the DemoKKKrats started planning their strategy--I'm guessing in March or April--they still thought they would lose. They knew Biteme was incompetent, even in the confusion of the China Virus.
2) They probably thought, "OK, we'll squirrel him away, keep him out of public sight, and let Kampuchea handle the load."

Mistake #1. She was an instant bomb, and was actually worse than Demented Perv Biteme.
3) At the same time, they thought they could use the Vote By Mail (VBM) scheme to extend voting way past Nov. 3.

While I don't think they seriously believed this, some of them no doubt thought they could drag it past Dec. 13.

I think some lawyers finally did some 'splainin.
Read 18 tweets

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