Thread on when I specifically cite all the flawed methodology in this year's polls, there's a separate angle highlighted by this story. See, it's not just the historical context they're failing to filter their weighting through as I've cited. There's also new information missed.
This story highlights a JP Morgan analysis that dug into all the voter registration numbers across the country. And with limited exception, they are quite favorable towards Republicans.…
Even if you're polling off a 2016 voter file when Trump also won, you're going to miss this. So are you even bothering to account for it? And if you're not, how are you specifically accounting for it?
For example, since 2008 the GOP has wiped out about 70% of the Democrats' voter registration edge in Florida. So how can you possibly forecast dominant Biden wins there as we've seen of late? Quinnipiac's final FL poll in 2018 had DeSantis losing by 7! He's governor now.
In 2016 I worked for the Cruz campaign. During the Iowa Caucuses, some of the public pollsters were correctly identifying we were going to set massive turnout records here. However, their assumption of what that meant was off everywhere.
A group called @theFAMiLYLEADER was undergoing a massive new voter registration largely missed by the media. Just as these voter registration numbers across the country are largely being ignored by big media polls in 2020.
TFL was specifically targeting Bible-believing Christians that had never voted in a caucus before. And while they weren't specifically advocating for a candidate, the turnout message was heavily driven by ideology and adherence to principles.
Do the math from there, on caucus night we did set a turnout record. 45% had never attended a caucus before, and Cruz (the ideological candidate) actually won that group to win Iowa. He out-performed the final RCP polling average by a whopping 8 points!
This is why I think the Biden campaign was sounding the alarm in a private memo this week. Because campaigns always have better data than the public. The reason I alone correctly predicted Cruz to win Iowa, is because I was the only media figure with Cruz's campaign data.
I'm not a shaman or prophet, I just had better data. And data always wins. The same has gone with Covid. I've not been proven right this year because I'm an epidemiologist or immunologist. But because I actually went to the data those people provide, when unfiltered by politics.
Biden may well win. I wouldn't bet on Trump straight up, for example. But I certainly would with +160 or higher odds available now. Yet that's a separate question.

I'm merely discussing the polling modeling we're seeing. And, as I've pointed out repeatedly, its deeply flawed.

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More from @SteveDeaceShow

12 Oct
20 Things Covid taught us:

1) Follow the science, of course, unless the science conflicts with Orange Man Bad.
2) The virus only spreads at gatherings that affirm certain political narratives.
3) We were dumb to not be wearing masks for centuries every flu season apparently.
4) We can now cancel all vaccine initiatives because masks are superior.
5) Antibodies = immunity if it's for a vaccine, but antibodies = contagious if the patient's name is Donald Trump.
6) If lockdowns don't work the first time, try it three more.
7) Cases spiking during mask mandates can only mean we weren't wearing masks long enough.
8) Masks work even better if you remove them to cough and touch them a lot, as Biden has shown.
9) The best science rejects established laws/precedents of immunology/virology/biology.
Read 7 tweets
28 Aug
The Rand Paul video is out of the Third World. A politician, who's already had Covid by the way so we actually need him breathing the free air, reduced to wearing a mask outside like its an Ebola plague. Meanwhile, he's tormented and threatened by an unruly mob of insurgents.
This used to be America. It's not anymore. I'm starting to think it may never be again.

And I can you assure you, if those responsible for pushing this violent and extreme Leftist ideology are incentivized with success this November -- it may not be.
They will be taught mobocracy wins. Spare me your opinions of Trump. I don't care if you don't like him, and neither do these insurgents. If you love freedom, regardless of your views on Trump, they are making it clearly they hate you. And they still will after Trump goes away.
Read 5 tweets
18 Aug
This is my home state of Iowa, and this exactly what you want to see during a pandemic. This is how you beat it without a meaningful vaccine.

Those 40 and younger with the strongest immune systems are 54% of our cases, but only 2.1% of our deaths.
In fact, not a single minor has died yet in a state of more than 3 million. And we just finished the nation’s first high school sports season with over 700 teams participating.
Look at our CFR — 1.87%. That is outstanding, and precisely because we let the virus encounter the younger and stronger immune systems to weaken it — especially during the heat of the summer.
Read 5 tweets
9 Aug
Little birdies tell me barring a miracle college football is not happening and financial apocalypse is coming. I’m told virus is the excuse, but it’s really university presidents afraid of players organizing.
The presidents fear putting the players out there with the increased liability entices them to organize, which the presidents don’t want because it goes against their “amateur model” canard.
The protest letter the Pac-12 players issued was the dagger. Momentum was favorable until then. But then other conference players followed suit. School presidents don’t want the players to unionize, and prefer risking financial apocalypse to risking their “amateur model.”
Read 7 tweets
3 Aug
For months western media/pseudo-experts praised Hong Kong's devotion to masks and urged us to follow suit.

Thread of examples below.…
Los Angeles Times -…
Read 10 tweets
30 Jul
Thread on masks.

Imagine if they would've treated us like adults instead and said, "Right now we're trying whatever we can, and we need all the help we can get. We're learning on the fly here with a novel virus. So let's try wearing masks for 30 days and see if that helps."
I would've been like, "Hey man we're all Americans here. Let's see if it works to get this under control and our lives back. Only one way to find out, and none of us have ever seen anything like this before. There's no playbook for this."
Instead, we got an instant about-face memory holing of all actual science on this until about a month ago. When a media-driven cult politicized this to to the hilt, and made the mask its talisman. And you were scarlet lettered if you dare ask, "Hey what's the science on that?"
Read 6 tweets

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