Mike Profile picture
18 Oct, 5 tweets, 2 min read
When a guy you don't know shows up in the morning on your TL to announce that you should be ignored, it's a good sign he has no sense of irony. But that's not all @NeilPHauer is lacking. He also has no strategic sense. He makes the rookie mistake of regional experts,
journalists & intel officers, who can't distinguish between the local factors fuelling a conflict on the ground & the factors that matter most for outside powers. For the US, the impact of the conflict on Iran is the 2nd most important factor (the impact on Russia being the 1st).
Iran may not be a major actor on the ground inside Karabakh, but it does support Armenia (while trying to hide that support) & the issue is positively explosive inside Iran, one of the most sensitive issues in the country, due to the
nationalist solidarity that Turks in Iran feel for their brethren in Azerbaijan. To borrow a concept from Soviet thinking, the impact of Turkic solidarity on Iran is "overdetermining" for the US (and Israel too). Thanks, @NeilPHauer, for giving me the opportunity to clarify the
distinction between a strategic analysis & a journalist's report. Some people may find it useful. I doubt, however, that it will penetrate that irony-free zone that is your mind. In that case, you should just take your own advice & ignore me. But really ignore me. I'd like that.

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More from @Doranimated

30 Sep
Azerbaijan’s Intel Service attacked an Iranian transport vehicle INSIDE IRAN, as it carried a military truck to Armenia. This took place in Iranian Azerbaijan where the locals are pro-Azerbaijan & anti-Iran gov. This is good for the US, Turkey & Israel.
The people in NW Iran are ethnically Azerbaijani (Turkic), and secessionist sentiment there is rising. It’s not clear just how strong that sentiment is, but it’s got to be one of the biggest nightmares of the leaders in Tehran, whose heads are filled with nothing but nightmares.
I can’t verify anything about this clip. It could turn out to be false in some significant way. Say, for example, local Azerbaijanis carried out the sabotage, not the Azerbaijani intelligence service. Or say it’s a total fabrication. Still, it points to a crucial startegic point.
Read 5 tweets
24 Sep
Angelo Codevilla: “The ruling class was able to transform America’s constitutional regime because its collective partisanship bridged the divisions between the federal government’s parts, the states, as well as between public and private power.” americanmind.org/essays/revolut…
An alternative view from Alexander Hamilton: "By a faction I understand a number of citizens, whether amounting to a majority or minority of the whole, who are united and actuated by some common impulse of passion, or of interest, adverse to the rights of other citizens =>
“or to the permanent and aggregate interests of the community. . .

If a faction consists of less than a majority, relief is supplied by the republican principle, which enables the majority to defeat its sinister views by regular vote. It may clog the administration, it may =>
Read 4 tweets
20 Aug
Mark Mancall died yesterday. A beloved teacher and friend, he had more influence on my life than anyone except my parents and my wife. Here he is in the middle, with me and Avrom Udovitch, at my wedding in London, 1996. Words can't express my sorrow. Image
Read 6 tweets
13 Aug
I've been exchanging messages with friends about what what's happening in our cities: NY, Philadelphia and LA especially. A lot of disturbing things are not making the news. Even Republicans aren't drawing attention to it. Here's a message from a friend about life in NY today:
"Here's my neighborhood, Mike: An elderly man, enjoying dinner w/his wife at an outdoor restaurant, punched in the face. A woman waiting for the subway to come stabbed in the back. An older neighbor pausing to catch his breath told to pay two dollars in protection money or get
"the fuck off that particular street corner. This is just the ten block radius from where I live in the last six days." Other friends from NY talk about shattered business districts, drugstores with locked shelves, and hundreds of homeless people and parolees, including sex
Read 15 tweets
6 Aug
Some pics and maps to get a sense of how big the explosion was in Beirut. Before the explosion in the port of Beirut 1/5 Image
After 2/5 Image
Damage radius 3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
5 Aug
Beirut port, before and after. This is what happens when a terror organization runs roughshod over port authorities. To facilitate Hezbollah/Iran’s smuggling, things are not tracked. Things, like 2700+ tons of ammonia nitrate, then fall through the cracks.
This is Hezbollah's Chernobyl. It's the terrible disaster that comes when a government is the plaything of a terror organization run by a foreign power. We will hear calls today for the world to rebuild Beirut. Yes, the US should provide emergency medical & humanitarian aid.
But funds for rebuilding Beirut should be contingent on Hezbollah's disarmament. Hezbollah & Iran are destroying Lebanon.
Read 6 tweets

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