1) OK, all here come the voting stats:

First, from "Freeper" bort about NC:

*Rs cut about 1.5 points from the Democrats lead in VBM/early in-person voting.

*) Votes cast: 665K Ds/355K Rs/408K I/U

*) D have cast 310,000 more votes than Rs
but . . .
*) In 2016, Democrats cast--get this--exactly 310,000 more votes than Republicans in the ENTIRE early voting period, i.e., the exact same spread as today.

*) Republicans have won 3 straight days of early voting so far & are the odds-on favorite to win most (if not all) . . .
of the remaining in-person EV days, as Dem-heavy mail-in ballots are slowing down to a trickle.

*) Caveat: Black voters have turned out in the first 3 days of in-person EV in large numbers (especially Day 1).
Rs still out-performed Ds on all 3 days which means that white Democrats cannibalized their in-person votes by voting via mail. Black voters may be "front-loaded" in in-person EV through voter drives, but we will need 3 or 4 more days of data to confirm this.
2) Now on to FL from "Freeper" Ravi:

*Ds 1,221,809 (48.9%)
*Rs 753,711 (30.2%)

D lead of 468,098

Ds daily edge down to 7,000. If this trend holds they will fall short of their necessary 650,000
3) Moreover, it appears the Ds are seriously eating up their election day voters:
79% of FL Rs who voted in all of the previous 4 elections have yet to cast a ballot.

Ds have 65.3% of their 4/4 voters.

This represents a 474,484 voter advantage for Republicans
3) contd
Among voters who voted in three of the past four elections, Republicans have 87% yet to vote while Democrats have 73.9% of their 3/4’s remaining.

This represents a 70,643 voter advantage for Republicans.
4) Then there is this:

Ralph Reed's coalition has 22m voters in swing states, 44m in all states, and will engage in a heavy GOTV.
5) Leftie sites VERY concerned about D cannibalization of their election day vote. They should be. They won't have the students on ED; and I expect overall black vote to be down 4-5% over 2016.

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More from @LarrySchweikart

20 Oct
1) FL numbers

First, Vote by Mail (VBM)
49.3% of requested D ballots have been returned
44.5% of R ballots have been returned

10/20/20 #s:
Ds 1,291,463 (48.5%)
REPs 808,962 (30.4%)
(Two weeks ago this was 55-29%)
Ds lead in VBM 482,501

Magic # for Ds in VBM: Lead by 653,000
1) contd . . .
They have turned down drastically in incoming ballots over the last two days, averaging just over 10,000 a day. If that keeps up (but even that should slow) they will add 110,000 VBM, or finish with a lead of 590,000---63,000 short.
2) Just for comparison, in 2016 Ds finished VBM (mostly absentee in 2016) and In Person Early Voting (walk in) with a lead of 88,000.

So the dynamic of having people vote early has changed massively, yet the Ds will barely beat their 2016 lead (Trump won FL, remember?).
Read 10 tweets
20 Oct
1) Remember I said Friday I felt Trump had broken Biteme, that really the race was over and just had to be run out?

2) Since then, Trafalgar moved Trump 1 point closer in PA, but internals suggest a tie now.

3) Trump himself, for the third time, said they were up in NV.
4) FL GOP walk-ins outpaced Ds for the first time in a day. If this is the crest of the Ds VBM/walkins, they came up 200,000 short---or as much as 400,000 short there.

5) Several stories have appeared showing the YUT vote is way down on campus after campus (Shocked! I tell ya).
6) AZ has moved into the safe column.

7) Despite hysteria, NC is on a trajectory to be safe. Trump today said they were up in NC.

8) OH was never, ever in doubt. IA will be closer this time, but not in doubt.
Read 6 tweets
20 Oct
1) "Freeper" byecomey does a great job analyzing the purported DemoKKKrat advantage in NC.

2) The NC VBM i* unusually slanted towards Dems relative to other states because older Rs in NC still tend to be registered as Ds. Here’s the proof:
*In 2016, 44% of all age 65+ voters were registered Ds.
* But in 2016, only 37% of NC voters age 65+ voted Hillary. 60% voted Trump. cnn.com/election/2016/…
2) contd . . .
*Even if you assign every I & R 65+ voter to Trump, that still leaves a significant (16%) crossover D vote to Trump among the 65+ cohort. It’s probably closer to 25%.
*The VBM & early votes are disproportionately older.
Read 6 tweets
20 Oct
1) Because many of you are concerned about this, maybe I can throw some light on the PA decision.

2) It can be appealed. Likely will. If they are smart, they'll wait until they are sure to get ACB on the bench first.
3) I suspect--and Zen Master can correct--that because this was returned without a precedent setting ruling, the Court doesn't want to rule on all of these piecemeal.

4) My guess is they will package all of them in a single ruling on what constitutes the "cutoff" for votes.
5) As for PA, Rs added another NET 9,000 registrations last week. This alone is probably a sufficient buffer to an planned fraud.

6) I don't think PA will be the tipping point by the time these "votes" would even be used. I think the election will be called. Too many states.
Read 6 tweets
19 Oct
1) So I told you this was coming in JULY.


"In Philadelphia, home to Temple U, Drexel, UPenn and LaSalle Univ, the 18-29 youth vote has gone from 23.1% 2016 and 12.5% in the midterms, to 11.7% in 2020 now."

2) But wait, this isn't the worst for them.
2) contd . . . Follow me on this.

ELECTION DAY is when the "yuts" really come out because of herding, mobilizing, etc.

3) To replace the (my projection -30%) shortfall on ED, they needed to be UP 30% in this category BEFORE election day.
4) I could be way off, but . . .

if the "Yut" vote is down 2/3 NOW????

5) It means my ED/final projection for 18-24s is gonna be way low.

6) They may be down nationally by 2/3 or more.

7) My estimate of a "missing" 1-1.5m Yuts could be way low. We might be looking at 2.5m
Read 5 tweets
19 Oct
Early voting data in battleground states shows Trump outpacing national polls giving Biden an edge washex.am/2GYgrfP

Wait, what? But . . . "muh North Carolina"
From the article: "Peggy Lehner, a Republican state senator in Ohio from a district Trump won in 2016, aren't painting such a rosy picture for his 2020 chances with the same constituency. His support hasn't "ebbed. It's crashed," Lehner, who will not run for reelection, said.
"He is really doing poorly among independents."

What they don't tell you is that Lehner is the ultimate bitter RINO cuz conservative-trending OH gave her the boot. She hated Trump & hates pro-lifers.

Her comment here is NOT at all what is happening in OH, where it's Trump +8
Read 4 tweets

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