Because of #COVID panic, Team #Biden put all their eggs in one basket: vote by mail.

Ds thought everyone, even people who haven't voted in decades, would all of sudden VBM. Wrong.

Meanwhile, Team #Trump sat up an extensive GOTV effort and knocked millions of doors.
Democrats are panicking. They worried about cannibalizing their Election Day vote. At the current rate, they need to be running +25-30 ahead in the early and VBM to offset the Trump Election Day onslaught.
More troubling for Ds, in the past three days, Rs have closed the early and VBM margins in FL, NC, MI, and PA.
Both the youth vote and Black vote will be lower than in 2016. At the current rate, Ds will not have the numbers on Election Day to push them over the edge. Ds need increase these early & VBM margins fast.

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More from @Wizard_Predicts

19 Oct
✅ Properly Comparing the Early Vote:

Reading the crystal ball on the partisan split and raw data is NOT useful because it's unreliable. Don't believe me? Look at Arizona in 2018. Rs WON the early vote but LOST Election Day and thereby lost the election. There are more examples.
EV is useful for comparing what the polls predicted w/ actual behavior...

So, let's take a gander at what the polls predicted the early turnout would look like and see how that compares with the current results.
Polls predicted a ~25+ point spread favoring Dems:

(1) Gallup showed Ds slaughtering Rs 62-28 (34 pt spread)

(2) YouGov showed Ds hammering Rs 65-40 (25 pt spread) tinyurl.com/y6azllgc

(3) NPR/Marist showed a 25 pt spread for Ds. tinyurl.com/yxec56jg Image
Read 5 tweets
18 Oct
Why are polls are so unreliable???

Is it bias? Conspiracy? Poor methods?

Well, it's complicated. But I'll try to explain.

(1/17)
#Polling has drastically evolved. The dawn of modern election Polling began in 1936 after #Gallup successfully predicting Roosevelt would win. The polling of that era consisted of in-person interviews conducted by a professional interviewer to minimize nonresponse bias. (2/17)
Each interviewer was given a highly detailed set of sampling quotas to meet. The quota sampling was nothing more than a systematic effort to force the poll sample to fit a national profile. (3/17)
Read 18 tweets
17 Oct
🚨Wizard Predicts: #Biden will win Miami-Dade County by a lower margin than Hillary due to an increase in turnout for #Trump among Cubans and Venezuelans.
Latest tends show Biden is performing slightly better in the Tampa Bay Area as compared to Hillary...
But Trump is doing better than he did in 2016 along the Atlantic Coast and widening his margins in north central FL, the panhandle, & SW FL.
Read 4 tweets
14 Oct
The latest early voter data from Wisconsin’s WOW counties show Trump is improving on ‘16 margins. This is key because R’s in those counties drifted away from him in 2016. It appears R’s are coming come.
If Trump can improve in the WOW counties and make modest gains in counties like Crawford, Grant, Marathon, Wood, Waupaca, Douglas, Ashland, Sawyer, he can carry Wisconsin. The offset Biden is receiving in counties like like Columbia and Sauk will not be sufficient.
Trump does not have to max out support in Racine or Kenosha counties. He only needs to be keep it competitive in the far southeast, so long as he makes gains in the North Woods & southwestern.
Read 9 tweets
10 Oct
Why in the hell is the SDNY prosecuting Steve Bannon??? Even if we assume Bannon committed a fraud -- which he did not -- the SDNY has no jurisdiction to prosecute the case. It's an unconstitutional abuse of venue. The Bannon matter has no legitimate connection to NY.
Bannon's Build the Wall was not based in NY, it didn't operate in NY, it wasn't organized in NY, it didn't bank in NY, and the wall was not being built in NY.
All SDNY can do is to point to a few donors in NY. But those NY donors *do not* complain about being defrauded. The SDNY is abusing the federal venue statutes.
Read 4 tweets
8 Oct
If Trump wins the election, and the objective data points suggest he will, the first presidential debate will be viewed by historians as a success. It accomplished what it was meant to do — drag Biden into street fight, and make him look weak and unhinged. @Barnes_Law
What the Ben Sharpio’s of the world don’t understand is that Trump’s debate strategy was never about persuading them. It’s about convicting the plumber in Bucks County that Biden is weak and unable to lead. @Barnes_Law
Biden needed to look presidential and in control. Instead, he took the bait and played at Trump’s level. Same strategic error Marco Rubio made during the primaries. You don’t beat Trump by fighting him on his terms. @Barnes_Law
Read 4 tweets

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