I got sick of seeing people be manipulated by phony polls, and not just in the US, but across the world. 🀒

So, I took to #Twitter to provide people with better methods (primary participation rates, registration trends, enthusiasm gap, etc) for forecasting elections. (1/4)
I ❀️ my followers.

First, you guys are really smart. If I make just the slightest mistake, you’ll find it and point it out, and I appreciate that about you. βœ…

Second, this page is like a giant brain spread across the country, even globe (hello UK #Brexit friends). πŸŒŽπŸ‡¬πŸ‡§
You all share a tremendous wealth of intel from highly localized demographic points to real-time reports of yard signs.

It’s a forecaster’s dream having access to this info, data points that many polls totally miss or pass off as irrelevant.

Are my methods infallible? No, of course not. I’m not the Pope. But are they more reliable than the polls? Hell yes!

In 13 days we’ll show the 538s of the world how real election forecasting is done. Until then, bet #Trump if he’s under 50. πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ


β€’ β€’ β€’

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with The Election Wizard πŸ§™β€β™‚οΈ

The Election Wizard πŸ§™β€β™‚οΈ Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Wizard_Predicts

23 Oct
#Democrats are panicking today because the early vote margin in #Florida dropped below 400k.

Why is it essential that Ds maintain a 400k advantage going into Election Day?

I'll break it down for you.

#Election2020 (1/6)
We know how many votes are remaining in FL because the state doesn't have same-day registration.

Remaining voters:
GOP: 3,486,163
DEM: 3,192,888
N/3/I: 2,990,862

Rs will match or exceed (mostly likely exceed) their '16 turnout, which was 81.2%. D turnout in '16 was 74.4%. That's R +6.8.

Now, here's why Ds are worried. If 81.2% (conservative figure) of Rs turnout on Election Day in #Flordia, Rs will exceed Ds by 450,000 votes.

Read 6 tweets
23 Oct
Reliable Data Points Indicating a #Trump Victory:

(1) Voter registration shifts towards Republicans in battleground states

(2) Large Republican participation rates in non-competitive Trump primaries.

(3) Gallup: more Americans say they are better off today then they were four years ago

(4) Gallup: most Americans expect Trump to win

(5) Gallup: tightening of party affiliation

(6) Trump is receiving higher donations (2:1 or more) than Biden in key working-class counties in battleground states

(7) Search engine and social media trends favor Trump

Read 4 tweets
22 Oct

#Republicans Expand Lead!

Cumulative total:
Republicans 483,443 (+ 90,913)
Democrats 392,530

Data: Florida Division of Elections (10/22 08:29 AM ET)

#Election2020Β  #election

Yesterday, REPS lead in the early by 40,000. Today, they’ve more than doubled their lead in the raw. Impressive!!

I would not be shock at all to see the Republican lead to increase to 100,000+ today.

R 3,422
D 7,242

R 20,659
D 12,157

R 22,173
D 43,158

R 14,438
D 4,557

R 13,324
D 4,898

R 29,352
D 37,507
Read 6 tweets
21 Oct
I generally like CHSA, but their weighting/representation is off.

Prediction: Bice will carry #OK5 easily.

(1/4) Image
In 2014, Ds gathered 145k votes. The R winner gained 160k.

In 2016, Rs carried OK5 again 160k-103k.

Then in 2018, Kenda #Horn won by 121k-117k in the raw.

What the hell? Did the district dramatically shift to the left?

Answer: 40,000 Rs stayed home!!! They got complacent.

Has central #OKC drifted blue? Yes, but not enough to impact this race in the way Ds hope.

In 2016, Rs maintained a ~19k vote advantage in OK-5 registration. Today, Rs lead in registration by ~28k (9,000 net gain).

Read 4 tweets
19 Oct
βœ… Properly Comparing the Early Vote:

Reading the crystal ball on the partisan split and raw data is NOT useful because it's unreliable. Don't believe me? Look at Arizona in 2018. Rs WON the early vote but LOST Election Day and thereby lost the election. There are more examples.
EV is useful for comparing what the polls predicted w/ actual behavior...

So, let's take a gander at what the polls predicted the early turnout would look like and see how that compares with the current results.
Polls predicted a ~25+ point spread favoring Dems:

(1) Gallup showed Ds slaughtering Rs 62-28 (34 pt spread)

(2) YouGov showed Ds hammering Rs 65-40 (25 pt spread) tinyurl.com/y6azllgc

(3) NPR/Marist showed a 25 pt spread for Ds. tinyurl.com/yxec56jg
Read 5 tweets
18 Oct
Because of #COVID panic, Team #Biden put all their eggs in one basket: vote by mail.

Ds thought everyone, even people who haven't voted in decades, would all of sudden VBM. Wrong.

Meanwhile, Team #Trump sat up an extensive GOTV effort and knocked millions of doors.
Democrats are panicking. They worried about cannibalizing their Election Day vote. At the current rate, they need to be running +25-30 ahead in the early and VBM to offset the Trump Election Day onslaught.
More troubling for Ds, in the past three days, Rs have closed the early and VBM margins in FL, NC, MI, and PA.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!