#Democrats are panicking today because the early vote margin in #Florida dropped below 400k.

Why is it essential that Ds maintain a 400k advantage going into Election Day?

I'll break it down for you.

#Election2020 (1/6)
We know how many votes are remaining in FL because the state doesn't have same-day registration.

Remaining voters:
GOP: 3,486,163
DEM: 3,192,888
N/3/I: 2,990,862

(2/6)
Rs will match or exceed (mostly likely exceed) their '16 turnout, which was 81.2%. D turnout in '16 was 74.4%. That's R +6.8.

Now, here's why Ds are worried. If 81.2% (conservative figure) of Rs turnout on Election Day in #Flordia, Rs will exceed Ds by 450,000 votes.

(3/6)
Therefore, to offset the #Trump Election Day onslaught, Ds MUST be as close to 450k votes as possible. But currently, their margin is in freefall, such that IF.... the trend continues, the D advantage be at or slightly less than 150k by Election Day.

(4/6)
Given the accelerated plummet in the past 24-36 hrs, it's possible (I am not predicting this but @LarrySchweikart is), that Ds might be trailing Rs by Election Day.

Folks, if that happens, #Biden is done. Hillary led the EVIP & VBM by ~100k...and she still lost. (5/6)
Larry is braver than me. But it is mathematically possible at this point. (6/6)

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More from @Wizard_Predicts

24 Oct
Democrats wanna cancel everything:

-Conservative Twitter
-Tucker Carlson
-Cops
-American History
-Religion
-The Constitution
-J.K. Rowling
-baby it's cold outside
-Christoper Columbus Day
-The National Anthem & Flag
-Guns

and now their latest victim:

fossil fuels.
There’s so many damn things I left these two off the list:

-Paw Patrol
-Live PD
Well hell, I forgot #Christmas.

They wanna cancel Santa and Rudolph too.
Read 4 tweets
23 Oct
Reliable Data Points Indicating a #Trump Victory:

(1) Voter registration shifts towards Republicans in battleground states

(2) Large Republican participation rates in non-competitive Trump primaries.

[1/3]
(3) Gallup: more Americans say they are better off today then they were four years ago

(4) Gallup: most Americans expect Trump to win

(5) Gallup: tightening of party affiliation

[2/3]
(6) Trump is receiving higher donations (2:1 or more) than Biden in key working-class counties in battleground states

(7) Search engine and social media trends favor Trump

[3/3]
Read 4 tweets
22 Oct
🏝#FLORIDA EARLY VOTE 🍑

#Republicans Expand Lead!

Cumulative total:
Republicans 483,443 (+ 90,913)
Democrats 392,530

Data: Florida Division of Elections (10/22 08:29 AM ET)

#Election2020  #election
MASSIVE REPUBLICAN SURGE:

Yesterday, REPS lead in the early by 40,000. Today, they’ve more than doubled their lead in the raw. Impressive!!

I would not be shock at all to see the Republican lead to increase to 100,000+ today.

@LarrySchweikart
Alachua
R 3,422
D 7,242

Brevard
R 20,659
D 12,157

Broward
R 22,173
D 43,158

Clay
R 14,438
D 4,557

Collier
R 13,324
D 4,898

Duval
R 29,352
D 37,507
Read 6 tweets
21 Oct
I got sick of seeing people be manipulated by phony polls, and not just in the US, but across the world. 🤢

So, I took to #Twitter to provide people with better methods (primary participation rates, registration trends, enthusiasm gap, etc) for forecasting elections. (1/4)
I ❤️ my followers.

First, you guys are really smart. If I make just the slightest mistake, you’ll find it and point it out, and I appreciate that about you. ✅

Second, this page is like a giant brain spread across the country, even globe (hello UK #Brexit friends). 🌎🇬🇧
(2/4)
You all share a tremendous wealth of intel from highly localized demographic points to real-time reports of yard signs.

It’s a forecaster’s dream having access to this info, data points that many polls totally miss or pass off as irrelevant.

(3/4)
Read 4 tweets
21 Oct
I generally like CHSA, but their weighting/representation is off.

Prediction: Bice will carry #OK5 easily.

(1/4) Image
In 2014, Ds gathered 145k votes. The R winner gained 160k.

In 2016, Rs carried OK5 again 160k-103k.

Then in 2018, Kenda #Horn won by 121k-117k in the raw.

What the hell? Did the district dramatically shift to the left?

(2/4)
Answer: 40,000 Rs stayed home!!! They got complacent.

Has central #OKC drifted blue? Yes, but not enough to impact this race in the way Ds hope.

In 2016, Rs maintained a ~19k vote advantage in OK-5 registration. Today, Rs lead in registration by ~28k (9,000 net gain).

(3/4)
Read 4 tweets
19 Oct
✅ Properly Comparing the Early Vote:

Reading the crystal ball on the partisan split and raw data is NOT useful because it's unreliable. Don't believe me? Look at Arizona in 2018. Rs WON the early vote but LOST Election Day and thereby lost the election. There are more examples.
EV is useful for comparing what the polls predicted w/ actual behavior...

So, let's take a gander at what the polls predicted the early turnout would look like and see how that compares with the current results.
Polls predicted a ~25+ point spread favoring Dems:

(1) Gallup showed Ds slaughtering Rs 62-28 (34 pt spread)

(2) YouGov showed Ds hammering Rs 65-40 (25 pt spread) tinyurl.com/y6azllgc

(3) NPR/Marist showed a 25 pt spread for Ds. tinyurl.com/yxec56jg
Read 5 tweets

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