@GrahamRTurner @JamesMelville If you meant in U.K., that’s literally impossible.
The worlds most cited & active scientist, Dr John Ioannidis, published his latest update on the infection fatality ratio. It’s 0.15-0.2%. 1 in 500 population representative infections lead to a death.
Let’s imagine SAGE is....
@GrahamRTurner @JamesMelville ...right, and 100% of U.K. population was susceptible. Let’s imagine Profs Gupta & Gomez and there’s no such thing as herd immunity. Everyone catches it. I calculate a MAXIMUM of 134,000 deaths. Not a million.
Now, it’s clear roughly 30% did have prior immunity due to earlier...
@GrahamRTurner @JamesMelville ..infection by related viruses. This means they don’t get infected, get ill, participate in transmission or die (from the virus...some will die from others things, as 620,000 do yearly in U.K.). Now far fewer get infected. Herd immunity of course IS a thing. Unless you’ve a...
@GrahamRTurner @JamesMelville ...more plausible explanation why Greater London isn’t suffering 500 covid19 deaths per day?
That limits the infection of the remaining, susceptible population to between 25-35%. Total deaths 45,000 or perhaps a little more. Then it stops. That’s the wonder of the community...
@GrahamRTurner @JamesMelville ...protection we provide to each other when we survive a respiratory virus like SARS-CoV-2 (& 99.94% of the population did). Individuals can still catch it, but they’re very unlikely to, as those around them aren’t carrying it. That’s why I almost cried when I heard they were...
@GrahamRTurner @JamesMelville ...locking down University students. If this had not been the worlds 1st social media pandemic, powered by perhaps the most lethal test in history (out of control, industrial scale molecular biology PCR test) they’d have enjoyed Freshers Week, done the things young folk do....
@GrahamRTurner @JamesMelville ...caught the virus & not noticed it, like 78,000 college students in the US did, no deaths, that could have added the last couple of % immunity to population protection. Then they could all hug their grandparents at Christmas & no one would get the virus.

Of course, now we’re..
@GrahamRTurner @JamesMelville ...in a Doom Loop, where SAGE tells you the pandemic has only just got going, so let’s do ever more testing, all we’ll see is ever increasing numbers of false positives, all the way to false positive deaths, and we will never emerge from this.
Someone needs to take a deep...
@GrahamRTurner @JamesMelville ...breath, immediately CEASE all mass screening of the community & ONLY test in hospital, the whole mess will go away within a maximum of three weeks.
I’m confident about this, not only because that’s the conclusion which looking carefully at all the data leads us to, but also...
@GrahamRTurner @JamesMelville ...that there isn’t an excess deaths signal. You literally cannot have a lethal pandemic stalking the land and NOT have notable, unarguable excess deaths, including hugely in London.
Oh, and I can’t help but mention Sweden. It’s also literally impossible for a nearby country....
@GrahamRTurner @JamesMelville ...of related peoples who, in spring, suffered exactly the same burden of disease as we in U.K. did (0.06% deaths) & have their autumn & pretend our position is real.
Mr & Mrs Politician: you know what I’ve said makes sense. You do not need to be a scientist to follow the logic.

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More from @MichaelYeadon3

27 Oct
Sometimes it’s useful to revisit basic concepts. We appear to have forgotten that immunity after viral infection is the rule, not the exception.

“In this chapter, we highlight the principal means by which the host achieves immunity following infection by viruses”.
“Table 27.1 presents an overview”. Image
“In humans, viral infections are rarely lethal, even if they are highly cytolytic to individual cells. Mortality commonly occurs when viruses jump species (eg. Ebola or HIV), when virus undergoes major antigenic change (i.e., influenza) or when host immunity is compromised”.
Read 12 tweets
27 Oct
@js100js100 What exactly do people expect? Antibodies are costly molecules to make. They occupy a lot of solute space which you don’t have much of in serum. I asked some bright people questions & the conclusions they reached were that you must have circulating forever high levels of...
@js100js100 ...antibodies to everything to which you have immunity. We did some back of the envelope calculations are it was realised that if all your blood cells were removed, there still isn’t enough room for that to happen. QED that isn’t how immunity works.
Why is our national...
@js100js100 ...broadcaster putting up experts whose job appears to be deliberately misleading & thereby to stoke fear?
Allow me to reassure you. While we cannot be certain that the duration of immunity after SARS-CoV-2 will resemble that after SARS, it is likely. The two viruses are 80%...
Read 7 tweets
26 Oct
I admit I’ve not focussed on Wales but that might make my viewpoint fresh.
I wonder if almost everything is down to false positives greatly worsened by testing people already in hospital. Let’s say there’s some covid19 in the community (not convinced, myself, but I’ll go with it)
....and we’re seeing the usual flow of admissions rising through autumn. Intensive testing of patients where there are any really infected patients makes contamination a near certainty. One strand of even partial viral RNA getting into the swab, stick, glove & bag is all it...
...takes. Now we’ve an apparent epidemic of nosocomial or hospital acquired infections. But they have most to be false, because we don’t see marked if any excess deaths. There will of course be people who are ill & get admitted for all sorts of reason, and roughly 1.7% of...
Read 5 tweets
24 Oct
Lets just have a show of hands, virtually. How many of you were aware the UK press and broadcasters (TV and radio) have been operating under what amounts to censorship which would have made Erich Honecker proud?

Just to cheer you up...I've so far asked 15 MPs and not a single..
...one had even heard of the Ofcom guidelines.
In the past, we would think of Ofcom as fluffy and mostly toothless. They might slap you if you said a rude word before 9pm. Now they've gone full Stasi. Allegedly, a big name broadcaster is ready to quit, citing censorship and...
...a growing awareness that thousands of men, women and children have been harmed and many have died, following a covid-19 strategy that is clearly wrong.
I invite that person to contact me. My proposal is, we hold hands and jump. I mean we do a two hander. You resign and tell...
Read 4 tweets
24 Oct
@SteveGreaves9 @Psycobunny I regret to say this is true. I was shocked recently to discover that EVEN MPs DONT SEEM TO KNOW ABOUT THIS:
The text reads:
. However, we remind all broadcasters of the significant potential harm that can be caused by
material relating to the....
@SteveGreaves9 @Psycobunny ...Coronavirus. This could include:
• Health claims related to the virus which may be harmful.
• Medical advice which may be harmful.
• Accuracy or material misleadingness in programmes in relation to the virus or public policy
regarding it.
We will be prioritising our...
@SteveGreaves9 @Psycobunny ....enforcement of broadcast standards in relation to the above issues. In these
cases, it may be necessary for Ofcom to act quickly to determine the outcome in a proportionate and
transparent manner, and broadcasters should be prepared to engage with Ofcom on short timescales.
Read 9 tweets
23 Oct
Does this ring any bells?

It’s a now-classic ‘PCR false positive pseudo epidemic’.

Different infectious organism (a gram-negative bacterium) & disease (whooping cough) but all the other features look familiar.
Look at the characteristics:
“Pertussis Pseudo-outbreak linked to specimens contaminated by Bordetella pertussis DNA From clinic surfaces”.

These technical staff were not even under the kind of time pressure the poor lab techs in U.K., yet the false...
...positives arose from contamination on the work bench & surrounding areas. Infinitesimally small amounts of contamination are proven to be sufficient to light up positive in PCR. It’s a brilliant technique. But it’s just not reliable on mass scale unless you’ve tremendous...
Read 9 tweets

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