1/7 The director of @CU_PublicHealth recently responded to a Covid-19 question in the local paper (@news_gazette).

The Question: Is Florida outperforming Illinois in its CV19 response?

Her Answer: No, Florida is doing much worse than Illinois.

Is that True? #RationalGround
2/7 If we first look at total deaths/100k since March and cases/100k in the last 30 days (to show the current trend). We see that Illinois is performing worse in both.

Illinois has slightly more overall deaths and almost double the cases.
3/7 Next, looking at current hospitalization data (provided by @HHS) we see again that Illinois is performing worse than Florida with a higher % of hospital beds filled and a higher % of Covid-19 patients in hospitals:
4/7 The fact Illinois has worse metrics than Florida is even more alarming given Illinois has some of the most stringent CV19 rules/mandates in the country while Florida took a more relaxed approach early on and as of late:
5/7 Given Illinois’ more stringent lockdown mandates, it’s not surprising that the unemployment rate is currently higher than Florida’s.

Additionally, The annual year-to-year unemployment rate has increased more than Florida’s.
6/7 Yet, @Govpritzker claims he follows “The Science” while at the same time belittles those who disagree with him and refuses to name his advisors.

Contrast that with @GovRonDesantis actually moderating a forum with scientists on CV19 policy responses.
rationalground.com/the-end-of-cov…
7/7 So to summarize, Illinois is indeed doing worse than Florida in many key metrics while also enforcing harsh mandates that have severely restricted lives and economic activity.

It's time to push back against public officials who refuse to provide honest answers

#NoNewNormal

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More from @OBusybody

28 Oct
1/7 KNOWLEDGE IS POWER
Keeping up with the daily barrage of CV19 information can be hard; here is a summary of a month’s worth of studies & articles.

Hopefully this will help combat the panicked CV19 decisions being made.

Citations are listed in the thread. #RationalGround Image
Read 7 tweets
21 Oct
1/7 This would be laughable if it wasn’t so sad.

The University of Michigan is now under a “stay in place order.”

Why don't you take a walk through insanity with me:
2/7 First off the order is in place due to…. you guessed it, cases.

Not hospitalizations, not deaths, but plain old cases:
cnn.com/2020/10/20/us/…
3/7 So why would cases be up? Well the county health department thinks it’s all those maskless college parties.

Call me crazy, but I’ve got another theory... maybe it’s because they’ve tested more people in the last 2 weeks than they tested From March through August:
Read 7 tweets
19 Oct
1/6 HOSPITALS AND COVID-19
Stories of hospitals being overwhelmed from CV19 are often without context

Hospitals operate near capacity, so needing extra space, staff, and resources isn’t uncommon

This graphic provides an overview from past years; 20+ citations are in the thread
2/6 This is not an exhaustive list , but shows the frequency which hospital capacity issues arise:

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/d…

nytimes.com/2004/01/18/nyr…

wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/17…

cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/05…
Read 6 tweets
11 Oct
1/5 I tried to ignore the political theatre of the Rose Garden event since I find it a ridiculous use of resources.

Now, however, that Fauci is using it to suggest an outdoor event without masks could cause a large outbreak, it needs to be addressed.
aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/1…
2/5 The first obvious issue is that the event was not only outdoors; it was an indoor/outdoor event.

This makes tying an outbreak to “rose garden” impossible to determine and irresponsible to suggest.
3/5 Next, of the 11 positive cases (out of 107) 5 are constantly around each other in a variety of other indoor situations.

In other words there is no evidence that being near each other in the rose garden was the cause of spread for Trump, Melania, Christi, Conway, or McEnany.
Read 5 tweets
7 Oct
1/6 There is a lot of media hyperventilating about Wisconsin because their hospitalizations are up.

The thing is, Wisconsin's recent rise merely puts them at the same level as neighboring "safe" states.
2/6 Well, maybe their ICU's are close to being overwhelmed?

Nope, the state doesn't appear to be near concerning levels.
3/6 But @GovEvers has said field hospitals will be opened next week, so there must be imminent danger, right?

Though possible, it's probably unlikely given how the "need" for field hospitals turned out in the past:
apnews.com/article/virus-…
Read 6 tweets
7 Oct
1/5 Here is a case study on Covid-19 privilege and politics.

City: Urbana, IL
Population: 42,000
CV19 % positive: 0.6%
CV19 Hospitalized: 2
Poverty Rate: 27.3%

The Decision: No in-person classes until 2021:
news-gazette.com/coronavirus/co…
2/5 By any metric Urbana is safe to reopen given their testing levels and low positive %/hospitalizations.

Also, they need to reopen:
“It troubles me that we’re backing off of in-person attendance when these truancy rates are way beyond what we’ve experienced in the past,”
3/5 Urbana's poverty rate is 16.4% higher than the state average; many families need in-person class

“I know we didn’t hear from very many of those families in our public statements, but I hear from them quite often — parents who are begging us to bring our kids back to school”
Read 5 tweets

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