Sometimes it’s useful to revisit basic concepts. We appear to have forgotten that immunity after viral infection is the rule, not the exception.

“In this chapter, we highlight the principal means by which the host achieves immunity following infection by viruses”.
“Table 27.1 presents an overview”.
“In humans, viral infections are rarely lethal, even if they are highly cytolytic to individual cells. Mortality commonly occurs when viruses jump species (eg. Ebola or HIV), when virus undergoes major antigenic change (i.e., influenza) or when host immunity is compromised”.
“Having entered the body, however, viruses encounter numerous innate defenses and activate the components of adaptive immunity. The latter usually assures that clinical disease, if not infection, will not become evident”.
“Viral infection induces an extensive array of defense mechanisms in the host. Innate defenses come into play to block or inhibit initial infection, to protect cells from infection, or to eliminate virus-infected cells, and occur well before the onset of adaptive immunity”.
Key Concepts: Principles of Antiviral Immunity
-Many human viral infections are successfully controlled by the immune system

-Certain emerging viruses may overwhelm the immune system and cause severe morbidity and mortality
-Other viruses have developed mechanisms to overwhelm or evade the immune system and persist

-Individuals with defects in innate or adaptive immunity demonstrate more severe viral infections

T-cell immunity is more important for control than antibody with many viral infections
-Antibody is important to minimize reinfection, particularly at mucosal sites

-Immune memory is often sufficient to prevent secondary disease, though not in all viral infection

Now this is basic stuff we’ve known for years. Especially the role of T-cells. This is a text book...
....that any undergraduate student might read. So when I hear numerous scientists & medics wringing their hands over how we’ll handle a common & garden coronavirus, I’m genuinely perplexed. “Like the last few, the endemic ones I was taught about, perhaps?” seems a good answer.
And this is why I’ve been forthright. I’ve not been making Nostradamus like predictions, just reading an undergraduate textbook.
Don’t let pseudo people fool you. It’s really not that special a virus; many of us had cross immunity to it before it arrived; very few are made...
...notably ill by it; I regret that those of advanced years, already beset usually by two life-limiting chronic illnesses were more likely to become seriously ill & a very small number died. It’s always been so at the end of life, as this chapter mentioned, when immune competence
...is reduced.

When you hear people setting way too much store about how long antibodies circulate, please know they’re mistaken. That’s not how immunity to most viruses is manifest. It’s mostly T-cells, as many of us have said for months.

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More from @MichaelYeadon3

28 Oct
“About 10% of the global population may be infected by October 2020. Global infection fatality rate is 0.15‐0.20% (0.03‐0.04% in those <70 years)”

You can make an estimate of the % of U.K. population infected by reference to Covid19 fatalities to date & the IFR. It’s not...
...a perfect method, but it yielded around 32% (that’s using the higher IFR; it would be closer to 40% using the lower value).

However you do the maths, even if 100% of us were initially susceptible (as SAGE said), you don’t get “more than 90%” when subtracting 32% from 100%.
Worse, our population never was 100% susceptible. That would have been truly astonishing because viruses tend to be related to other viruses.

Indeed, that rather radical journal, the BMJ, now recognised that around 30% of us had prior immunity to this virus, before it arrived,
Read 10 tweets
27 Oct
@js100js100 What exactly do people expect? Antibodies are costly molecules to make. They occupy a lot of solute space which you don’t have much of in serum. I asked some bright people questions & the conclusions they reached were that you must have circulating forever high levels of...
@js100js100 ...antibodies to everything to which you have immunity. We did some back of the envelope calculations are it was realised that if all your blood cells were removed, there still isn’t enough room for that to happen. QED that isn’t how immunity works.
Why is our national...
@js100js100 ...broadcaster putting up experts whose job appears to be deliberately misleading & thereby to stoke fear?
Allow me to reassure you. While we cannot be certain that the duration of immunity after SARS-CoV-2 will resemble that after SARS, it is likely. The two viruses are 80%...
Read 7 tweets
26 Oct
@GrahamRTurner @JamesMelville If you meant in U.K., that’s literally impossible.
The worlds most cited & active scientist, Dr John Ioannidis, published his latest update on the infection fatality ratio. It’s 0.15-0.2%. 1 in 500 population representative infections lead to a death.
Let’s imagine SAGE is....
@GrahamRTurner @JamesMelville ...right, and 100% of U.K. population was susceptible. Let’s imagine Profs Gupta & Gomez and there’s no such thing as herd immunity. Everyone catches it. I calculate a MAXIMUM of 134,000 deaths. Not a million.
Now, it’s clear roughly 30% did have prior immunity due to earlier...
@GrahamRTurner @JamesMelville ..infection by related viruses. This means they don’t get infected, get ill, participate in transmission or die (from the virus...some will die from others things, as 620,000 do yearly in U.K.). Now far fewer get infected. Herd immunity of course IS a thing. Unless you’ve a...
Read 11 tweets
26 Oct
I admit I’ve not focussed on Wales but that might make my viewpoint fresh.
I wonder if almost everything is down to false positives greatly worsened by testing people already in hospital. Let’s say there’s some covid19 in the community (not convinced, myself, but I’ll go with it)
....and we’re seeing the usual flow of admissions rising through autumn. Intensive testing of patients where there are any really infected patients makes contamination a near certainty. One strand of even partial viral RNA getting into the swab, stick, glove & bag is all it...
...takes. Now we’ve an apparent epidemic of nosocomial or hospital acquired infections. But they have most to be false, because we don’t see marked if any excess deaths. There will of course be people who are ill & get admitted for all sorts of reason, and roughly 1.7% of...
Read 5 tweets
24 Oct
Lets just have a show of hands, virtually. How many of you were aware the UK press and broadcasters (TV and radio) have been operating under what amounts to censorship which would have made Erich Honecker proud?

Just to cheer you up...I've so far asked 15 MPs and not a single..
...one had even heard of the Ofcom guidelines.
In the past, we would think of Ofcom as fluffy and mostly toothless. They might slap you if you said a rude word before 9pm. Now they've gone full Stasi. Allegedly, a big name broadcaster is ready to quit, citing censorship and...
...a growing awareness that thousands of men, women and children have been harmed and many have died, following a covid-19 strategy that is clearly wrong.
I invite that person to contact me. My proposal is, we hold hands and jump. I mean we do a two hander. You resign and tell...
Read 4 tweets
24 Oct
@SteveGreaves9 @Psycobunny I regret to say this is true. I was shocked recently to discover that EVEN MPs DONT SEEM TO KNOW ABOUT THIS:
ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/…
The text reads:
. However, we remind all broadcasters of the significant potential harm that can be caused by
material relating to the....
@SteveGreaves9 @Psycobunny ...Coronavirus. This could include:
• Health claims related to the virus which may be harmful.
• Medical advice which may be harmful.
• Accuracy or material misleadingness in programmes in relation to the virus or public policy
regarding it.
We will be prioritising our...
@SteveGreaves9 @Psycobunny ....enforcement of broadcast standards in relation to the above issues. In these
cases, it may be necessary for Ofcom to act quickly to determine the outcome in a proportionate and
transparent manner, and broadcasters should be prepared to engage with Ofcom on short timescales.
Read 9 tweets

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