Let's think a bit harder about why people might be dying in excess at the moment. Look what happened in spring to visits to A&E for heart attacks and angina.
Levels dropped to 60% of normal. People will have died because of that whether it was from fear or lockdowns. We are now creating fear and having lockdowns again. What is happening to deaths?
Here are excess deaths for people with heart attacks
Here are excess deaths from people with strokes.
And here are excess deaths from acute respiratory infections. COVID deaths stopped in spring. We need to return to a functioning society with functioning healthcare to prevent these other deaths.

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More from @ClareCraigPath

28 Oct
Don't get tested on a Friday or Saturday. Here are the percentage of positive tests in Scotland. There's a weekly cycle.
You're twice as likely to test positive on a Friday than on a Sunday. Once a week the lab will have a thorough clean and will bring out new chemicals for testing. I think I know which day they're doing that.
This is a result of a) PCR testing being a difficult test to do with only the tiniest amount of material needed to contaminate results and b) laboratories being under huge pressure to process volumes of tests at speed. Either volume or speed must be compromised to enable quality.
Read 6 tweets
28 Oct
The excess deaths we are currently seeing are in young people; older women; and strokes, heart attacks and diabetes. There are fewer respiratory deaths than normal for the time of year. COVID killed old men and is a respiratory disease. This is not COVID.
Read 5 tweets
25 Oct
Liverpool University Trust has had the most COVID deaths since September of any NHS trust. From 01/09/20 until 25/10/20 there have been 140 'COVID' deaths. This is 27% of all the COVID deaths since March. No excess mortality.
Here are some hypotheses:
a) these are not COVID deaths but misdiagnoses
b) COVID is killing people who would have died otherwise and beating influenza to it. The new 'old man's friend' that was influenza.
c) People are dying with COVID not of COVID

I think it's a.
Read 6 tweets
22 Oct
In spring, the death rate per week was double normal for the over 55s. What is happening now?
Recent COVID deaths appear to have risen since week 36.
It is worth comparing this pattern to the pattern of % positive tests. The rise in positive tests starts in week 36. There has been no lag between this rise in positive tests and resulting rise in % of COVID deaths as proportion of mean 2015-2019 deaths.
Read 5 tweets
22 Oct
COVID killed middle aged people in spring. It is not doing that anymore. I have scaled total deaths (by 20) to compare. Thanks to @RuminatorDan for inspiration.
Same chart not scaled.
Same for older people over all time and recently
Read 4 tweets
20 Oct
ONS data showed that 0.52% of the East Midlands population were COVID positive on 5th Oct that's 24,293 cases. PCR testing is meant to be reliable for 20 days during disease. In the 20 days between 26/09 and 15/10 there have been 23,032 cases diagnosed.
The mean number of daily cases diagnosed was 1152 and 1065 were found on 4th Oct and 1448 on 5th so, although there has been some growth in that 20 day period the 5th is the median amount.
In a false positive pseudo epidemic the data starts to look back to front because the relationships between e.g. predicted cases and diagnosed cases is lost. Both factors become functions of testing variables not disease.
Read 4 tweets

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