“About 10% of the global population may be infected by October 2020. Global infection fatality rate is 0.15‐0.20% (0.03‐0.04% in those <70 years)”

You can make an estimate of the % of U.K. population infected by reference to Covid19 fatalities to date & the IFR. It’s not...
...a perfect method, but it yielded around 32% (that’s using the higher IFR; it would be closer to 40% using the lower value).

However you do the maths, even if 100% of us were initially susceptible (as SAGE said), you don’t get “more than 90%” when subtracting 32% from 100%.
Worse, our population never was 100% susceptible. That would have been truly astonishing because viruses tend to be related to other viruses.

Indeed, that rather radical journal, the BMJ, now recognised that around 30% of us had prior immunity to this virus, before it arrived,
...because we’d been exposed to one or more of the common cold-causing coronaviruses which Hugh Pym & Fergus Walsh have been busily telling your about. Or not.

So if 30% were thought likely to have had prior immunity, and then another 32% got infected (& mostly survived),
...doesn’t that mean that under 40% remained susceptible when Sir Patrick made his remarks, live on TV, looking directly at the camera?

Ans: Yes.

Doesn’t that mean he said something demonstrably wrong? Something which would mean more deaths & a more prolonged pandemic?
Ans: Yes.

Do you think a clever physician-scientist like Sir Patrick Vallance, who used to run R&D for GSK, one of the worlds largest pharmaceutical companies, doesn’t know about T-cell immunity? Or doesn’t understand that “7% of us possessing antibodies” does NOT mean that...
...”only 7% of us have been infected & so sadly over 90% of the U.K. population remains susceptible”?

Ans: You decide.

By sheer luck, Mike’s & Pat’s research careers briefly crossed around 1990-1, when both worked at Wellcome Research Labs in Beckenham.
Because we’ve had a similar training & work history (I didn’t run a great research organisation, but Sir Pat didn’t found, secure the finance for & successfully lead his own biotech to a profitable trade sale to Novartis) I submit you should assume he knows everything I know.

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More from @MichaelYeadon3

30 Oct
What SAGE Has Got Wrong – Lockdown Sceptics

It’s Easier to Fool People Than It Is to Convince Them That They Have Been Fooled.” – Mark Twain

Dr Mike Yeadon has a degree in biochemistry and toxicology and a research-based PhD in respiratory... lockdownsceptics.org/what-sage-got-…
... pharmacology. He has spent over 30 years leading new medicines research in some of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies, leaving Pfizer in 2011 as Vice President & Chief Scientist for Allergy & Respiratory. That was the most senior research position in this field...
... in Pfizer. Since leaving Pfizer, Dr Yeadon has founded his own biotech company, Ziarco, which was sold to the worlds biggest drug company, Novartis, in 2017.

I’ve reposted my mini biography. I’m the scientific equal of anyone on SAGE. I even worked in an adjacent lab to...
Read 16 tweets
30 Oct
Thank it JOEL. Please everyone, take a look. Weekly death rate England. It’s entirely NORMAL. There aren’t more deaths than usual. There aren’t more respiratory deaths than normal. Govt claims there is a lethal respiratory virus at large, killing 100s per day.
It is misdiagnosis.
Because there aren’t excess respiratory deaths - and Govt KNOWS there aren’t, there is NO need for any further ‘measures’ that are hurting families, killing people & destroying the economy. This isn’t opinion or forecasting. It’s right in front of your eyes. If you don’t object..
....in the strongest terms and just say “we the people of U.K. are not doing this; the virus killed people but it’s months ago stopped; your unchecked, error-prone test is lying to us all, cease immediately”, our country & lives are all in peril. With no exaggeration, I’ve....
Read 4 tweets
30 Oct
@J_CD_T Interesting, thanks.
I have a major using seroprevalence to guide us in any way. The process of forming antibodies is long, yet the apparent half life varies so much as to render seroprevalence as uninterpretable. Mild & asymptomatic infections result in too little if any...
@J_CD_T ...antibodies. If we come back a month, or 6 or 9 months later then, depending on the sensitivity of immunoassay used, you could get more of less any numbers.
I do not believe on this basis that seroprevalence is useful in guiding us. Admissions & deaths coupled with properly-...
@J_CD_T ...conducted PCR testing, is the way forward.

By the way: really key point. What is the excess deaths profile in Italy over the last 4 weeks? Remember that Covid19 kills mostly old & very old people with two or more serious chronic illness, they’re typically respiratory...
Read 11 tweets
27 Oct
Sometimes it’s useful to revisit basic concepts. We appear to have forgotten that immunity after viral infection is the rule, not the exception.

“In this chapter, we highlight the principal means by which the host achieves immunity following infection by viruses”.
“Table 27.1 presents an overview”.
“In humans, viral infections are rarely lethal, even if they are highly cytolytic to individual cells. Mortality commonly occurs when viruses jump species (eg. Ebola or HIV), when virus undergoes major antigenic change (i.e., influenza) or when host immunity is compromised”.
Read 12 tweets
27 Oct
@js100js100 What exactly do people expect? Antibodies are costly molecules to make. They occupy a lot of solute space which you don’t have much of in serum. I asked some bright people questions & the conclusions they reached were that you must have circulating forever high levels of...
@js100js100 ...antibodies to everything to which you have immunity. We did some back of the envelope calculations are it was realised that if all your blood cells were removed, there still isn’t enough room for that to happen. QED that isn’t how immunity works.
Why is our national...
@js100js100 ...broadcaster putting up experts whose job appears to be deliberately misleading & thereby to stoke fear?
Allow me to reassure you. While we cannot be certain that the duration of immunity after SARS-CoV-2 will resemble that after SARS, it is likely. The two viruses are 80%...
Read 7 tweets
26 Oct
@GrahamRTurner @JamesMelville If you meant in U.K., that’s literally impossible.
The worlds most cited & active scientist, Dr John Ioannidis, published his latest update on the infection fatality ratio. It’s 0.15-0.2%. 1 in 500 population representative infections lead to a death.
Let’s imagine SAGE is....
@GrahamRTurner @JamesMelville ...right, and 100% of U.K. population was susceptible. Let’s imagine Profs Gupta & Gomez and there’s no such thing as herd immunity. Everyone catches it. I calculate a MAXIMUM of 134,000 deaths. Not a million.
Now, it’s clear roughly 30% did have prior immunity due to earlier...
@GrahamRTurner @JamesMelville ..infection by related viruses. This means they don’t get infected, get ill, participate in transmission or die (from the virus...some will die from others things, as 620,000 do yearly in U.K.). Now far fewer get infected. Herd immunity of course IS a thing. Unless you’ve a...
Read 11 tweets

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