1/x In my1st year in the pits of Chicago, I quickly learned a favorite pastime of idle traders on a Friday w/nothing trading was to create a humorously absurd challenge for someone on the floor to undertake & then coax the entire trading apparatus into action betting on outcomes.
2/x By the time the challenge had fully taken hold, there would be hedge funds in London & banks in Paris taking positions on whether or not ‘John’s’ Clerk ‘Gary’could eat 150 Chicken McNuggets in 60 min..Early on I would look at Gary, look at some online research & place a wager
3/x But after a few months, it became clear you always wanted to bet on ‘Gary.’ or ‘Mary’, regardless of how crazy or ridiculous the challenge, because, invariably, ‘Gary’ was offered some portion of the winnings of the bets for him to encourage him to compete in the 1st place.
4/x You see, the bets being placed weren’t like tornado insurance, where the outcome was completely independent of the security. They were like Options on the market...People like to refer to options as market ‘insurance,’ but the problem with this analogy is that it fails to
5/x contemplate the crucial fact that market ‘insurance’ itself is critically, reflexively involved in the probabilities of its own outcomes...& so it is that, when people are all hedged, market events tend not to realize, & when they are not they tend to. Hence Brexit Hence 2016
6/6 So, I ask you, this election season, are people hedged? Are people worried? Do you want to bet on ‘Gary’ or against him?? I’ve learned the hard way, you don’t bet against Gary, no matter how absurd the challenge may seem...
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