In U.K. in spring there was an v strong relationship between covid19 deaths & excess deaths. Correlation isn’t causation but it’s strong evidence - in spring - that the one is responsible for the other. In formal terms it’s consistent with that hypothesis. We’d expect it, too.
In recent weeks this has completely broken down. It’s no longer possible to stand up the claim that covid19 deaths & excess deaths are causatively linked. In formal terms the data are not consistent with the hypothesis that covid19 deaths are the cause of any excess deaths.
I forgot to say, the most likely explanation for this inconsistency is that our measurements are wrong.
The PCR test for Covid19, like all such tests, is capable of ‘producing a misdiagnosis’.
Technically we call it false positives. When a testing system is overstretched and...
...especially when many of the staff have never done this kind of work professionally & all they’ve ever done is a dozen or two “labs” as an undergraduate, it’s inevitable that errors in the handling, dispensing & processing steps involved in sample (swab) preparation will soar.
In turn what that does is make it increasingly likely that a particular swab, a person, will be given a positive result, when in fact there never was any viral genetic material on the swab or in that person.
Now I’ll tell you that all admissions are tested & every long stay....
...patient gets tested repeatedly. Note, there’s a roughly 1.7% chance of not coming out for the broad population admitted to hospital. But it’s worse. Those who become longer stay patients are obviously increasingly likely to die. You’re pretty ill if you’re in for weeks.
Even worse. Those same long stay patients get tested REPEATEDLY. If they get a positive test & then die within 28 days, they are defined as a Covid19 death.
The critical thing to know is that even if the virus stops circulating, the misdiagnoses, the ‘false positives’ continue.
Franz Kafka would have rejected our Covid19 testing system on grounds that it’s too surreal & nightmarish to be believable.
A responsible organisation, well aware that people’s lives, even the very nations health, turns on the accuracy, reliability & trust the people have in...
...the testing system. Despite this absolutely central role PCR testing plays in U.K. national life, the basics of quality control appear not to be in place. As a highly experienced research scientist, if I’d said to my manager “I haven’t bothered to do the usual QC steps, as...
...a bit busy, so I’m going ahead to use this test in our research & we’re going to assume the test is working perfectly”, I’d have been out of the lab before first tea break. What specifically am I calling for?
“Mr Hancock, please immediately make public the false positive...
...rate for each of the last eight weeks, together with the technical audit reports that underwrite them, even if in draft form”. That’s all.
Those of you who’ve followed me (thank you...I’d not do this if there weren’t lots of people reading it) will recall I turned up like a..
...bad penny in Hancock’s life in summer. He’d appear weekly on Julia Hartley-Brewer’s talkRADIO show. Julia had interviewed me the previous week & I made exactly the same demand (FPR, %) as I’m calling for now. Back in summer, when virus prevalence was at its lowest at 0.05%...
...I estimated that a false positive rate of just under 1% was sufficient to mean that essentially ALL the so-called positive tests, the “cases”, were MISDIAGNOSES. They didn’t have the virus.
JHB asked Hancock & he confessed it was “just under 1%”. In Q&A, I thought he was....
....brazenly lying, as he said something like “false positives are very low & this means that the probability that a positive test result in wrong is under 1%”. Kinder souls gently suggested that he didn’t understand because he’s not very bright. Are you OK having at the top...
....of our national testing system a senior minister who fails to understand use of simple statistics, when his entire area of responsibilities include our NHS & the community mass testing system? And when that testing system is the trigger for any decision to place areas of....
...the country & indeed the ENTIRE COUNTRY in lockdown, don’t you absolutely demand that the PCR test behaviour is well understood? I hope so.
I’m asking him yet again to disclose the % misdiagnosis rate for each of the last few weeks, together with the supporting quality...
....control reports (even if only in draft).
Important to know that the misdiagnosis rate is very easily close to 100%. A FPR in the mid single digits % is all it takes for everything we each hold dear to be wrongly crushed: almost all “cases” would be incident. A few weeks...
...back, Dr Julian Harris resigned from his senior scientific / supervisory post in one of the large PCR sample preparation labs. Look him up. He was interviewed for BBC TV’s late evening news. He cited chaos & even safety concerns, saying the majority of the staff under him...
...were so inexperienced that some had to be taught how to use precision pipettes. That’s what resolved me yet again to press Hancock & Govt to publish the misdiagnosis rate. It won’t be the around 1% of summer. Most of the OPERATIONAL false positive rate errors arise in the...
....sample preparation stages. The slightest contamination during a liquid transfer step is enough to introduce some partially degraded virus genetic material into many nearby separate samples. This technique is similar to the one that’s used for legal, evidential, forensic....
....purposes. As an aside, any barrister acting for the accused, would only need to show the judge the interview with Dr Harris & I think it likely the judge would agree with the barristers claim that this is unreliable evidence & that it wouldn’t be admissible in a trial.
So there is the evidence there’s a problem. The answer on the misdiagnosis rate is that it’s very likely to be a LOT higher than before. If I am right & I think I am, then the positives are ALL false positives.
I CANNOT OVERSTATE THE IMPORTANCE of us not being told this seemingly irrelevant piece of information, the FPR.
I think the pandemic is essentially over & has been since June, just like it us in Sweden. Both countries suffered the same loss of life to Covid19 in spring: 0.06%...
...and, like Sweden, the daily deaths drifted down from their mid-April peak until in June, when they became essentially zero.
The ONLY difference between us is this error prone monster of a badly characterised PCR test. I am telling you that, as a very experienced lab....
....scientist, the misdiagnosis rate will certainly be considerable. If you were told this & it is roughly where I believe it it be, then the “Covid19 “cases”, hospital admissions & even deaths are all NOT COVID19 AT ALL.
Is this even possible??
The shocking answer is YES.
In New Hampshire in the US, a few years ago, the had what appeared to be a huge outbreak of whooping cough. While the kids coughing didn’t seem to be too bad, the tests they were using, PCR tests specific for pertussis showed they did have. Desperate to understand it, they...
....began testing all the admissions & repeatedly so. Eventually some old school doctor smelled a rat & demanded they do the old fashioned confirmatory test: culture the samples from swabs of those suspected of having whooping cough.
They found not a singer real case. No one...
...had the infection. Put another way, they had 100% false positives.
It’s now a classic of epidemiology. It’s even got a name:
Please for the sake of your children’s & grandchildren’s future together with your own health, society and...
...liberty, you’ve got to find a way to PAUSE COMMUNITY MASS TESTING BY PCR RIGHT NOW.
We’ve been told it’s not reducing transmission as less than 10% do self isolation for the 14 day period. Pausing this dangerously broken test for a short while using normal, good quality...
Paper on the PCR false positive pseudo epidemic in New Hampshire:
They did track down the source of contamination: getting samples & chemicals mixed up on the bench, poor laboratory practise & inadequate supervision.

Are you seeing what I’m seeing yet??
...doctoring, looking at symptoms, always run confirmatory PCR tests, using different virus RNA-detecting “primers.
I expect the whole “Second wave” will disappear.
As it should, just as it has in Sweden, a similarly hard hit country to ours (& they’re slightly MORE urbanised).
IF IT WAS TRUE that there was a lethal pandemic stalking the land, there would by now in this manufactured second wave, thousands of excess deaths & they’d be dominated by very elderly people who had two or more serious illnesses, it would be noticeably more men than women...
...and importantly, there’d be a notable spike in respiratory deaths.
That is not what we’re seeing.
Dr Clare Craig FRCPath has looked at the medical position of those recent deaths. They’re younger, mostly dying of heart failure, heart attacks, strokes, cancer, the gender..
... balance is normal & not biased toward men.
Importantly , they’re mostly not respiratory deaths.

I checked with a friend about the ITU beds disposition nationally; 82% of capacity. Bang on the same values (81% - 82%) ac they were the same time in 2019, 2018, 2017 & 2016.
So if you’re told by previously trusted broadcasters that hospitals are filing faster than ever before & that intensive care will top out way above our capacity, it’s just not true.

There are indeed more ill people admitted at the moment. That normal for the time of year.
There are not more respiratory deaths than normal for the time of year. They always increase at this time. See Prof Heneghan’s work on this.

If you’ve doubts on the position of the pandemic in U.K., please look again at these pie charts.

Ask yourself: what’s protecting London?
I don’t need to accurate to the last digit here. I think it’s enough to start with the left chart. SAGE’S position is most DEFINITELY WRONG. They’re meant to be the experts. And they’re wrong. They are proven incompetents & arrogant with it.
Please consider the right chart.
Those categories include ‘prior immunity’. It’s normal, bog-standard immunology, that some people are already immune to things that are new. It’s not paradoxical. The oldest such lesson in the world, over 200 years ago, when Edward Jenner exposed a boy to cowpox, which...
...protected him from lethal smallpox. So it’s normal to have some degree of prior immunity. Recall those floating laboratories, the cruise ships? Even after bring together for weeks, only 20% became infected. Nowhere near SAGE’s 100%. Obviously we don’t know what that number...
...means exactly, but I find it interesting that it’s not 40% or 60%. What I take from it is this is just one more clue, not proof, that not everyone was susceptible.
Then in speed of dissemination across the U.K.
I asked someone the other day roughly how long did they think it takes each season’s ‘flu to spread around pretty much all corners of the country?
They thought for a moment then offered “3 to 4 months”.
I pointed out we’re told...
...that SARS-COV-2 is MORE infectious than ‘flu. I don’t know if that is actually true because I don’t know how many times ‘flu has been handled the same way as the ‘new’ virus. So I asked how long they would expect this virus to spread through U.K. & quickly came their answer:
“Well, it won’t take LONGER, will it? Maybe the same time or a bit less”. Of course, I don’t know the answer to my own question but “about the same as ‘flu, maybe a little faster” seems a reasonable guess. We know it was in U.K. as early as Feb 2020. Add four months, March....
....April, May, June. By end June there highly lethal phase of the pandemic was OVER. I noticed the daily deaths fall steadily, but I noticed the slope was “too flat compared with other countries”. In natural phenomena, biology on scale couldn’t care less what you think about...
...masks & lockdowns do to transmission. Respiratory virus are in some ways like mercury. Try to slow transmission through one path, it’ll either ignore that or find another route. Our lockdown was miles too late to have done anything & indeed I think not a single “measures”...
...that was imposed on us by those incompetents in SAGE made any difference to transmission. They’ve forced us to damage society, people’s health & livelihoods, leading to tens of thousands of avoidable, non-Covid19 deaths, for absolutely no gain at all. Note, Prof Ferguson...
....has got “form” for over predicting anything he touches. He’s demonstrably done the same to U.K. with Covid19.

So I’m imploring you to be open-minded this weekend. Please think about all I’ve said. I think the pandemic here is over just like in Sweden. We’re being damaged...
.,.by “advice” from people who’re proven incompetents. They don’t care about any of us, but perhaps their models, which are replete with faults & seriously wrong assumptions all year.
Why would you think they’re suddenly going to get it right this time?
I ask only two things.
1. If you think there’s something in what I’m saying, lobby your MP this very weekend, ideally today. You can find their emails for their parliamentary office & phone number too. Write a short email, telling them you’ve very serious concerns about SAGE’s advice to Govt.
Demand that they in turn lobby No. 10 NOT TO GO FOR ANY MORE LOCKDOWNS OF ANY KIND.

2. Tell them you’ve seen reports showing that the Pillar 2 community mass testing system is seriously error prone.
...pending getting a proper quality control handle on this system, as our entire way of life depends on accuracy you feel hadn’t been demonstrated yet anyone involved from the very beginning & it’s thought to in a worse mess now. And as you’ve a right to expect competent,
...honest advice from experts retained by Govt, bad you’re concerned they’re neither, lobby your MP to lobby No. 10 to DISBAND SAGE IMMEDIATELY & RECONSTITUTE IT drawing on experts from medical & academic backgrounds who’ve shown consistent deep involvement in & knowledge of...
...the pandemic. Job #1 is keep Pillar 2 offline while Pillar 1 (hospital testing) is greatly improved. Job #2 involves connecting with former SAGE components to identify useful inputs & this extensive liaison will include a working trip to Stockholm & Zoom meetings with others.
I need to ask you one last favour.
4. Tell your MP that you’ll not only not vote for them next time, but you’ll join any campaign to make sure they don’t get back in.
That’s the only thing which is almost guaranteed to get them moving!!
When writing, do include name, address... & phone number.
There is absolutely nothing more I can do. Personally, I think the science is compelling that SAGE has been grossly incompetent, at best, and they must go before they damage our country & us in it further.
This can ONLY be stopped by politicians.
They will do nothing unless YOU ACT & you can wake them up ONLY if you tell them their seat is at risk if they don’t do this small thing for you: to lobby No. 10 to change course as summarised above.

As I close, here is my prediction: if we can pause Pillar 2 (community) and...
...improve Pillar 1 (hospital) testing, within one month from today, our country will start to look noticeably better.

It’ll keep improving so long as SAGE isn’t in the driving seat.

THANK YOU IN ADVANCE any of you who get active with your MP TODAY OR TOMORROW.

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More from @MichaelYeadon3

1 Nov
@BreesAnna Please read my very accessible review of the pandemic here:…
Nothing here is my speculation. All drawn from peer reviewed journals or work in review by worlds top immunologists & epidemiologists. Image
@BreesAnna Since writing this I’ve come across several anomalies in the public record.
1. Virtually no excess seats since July.
These are inconsistent with SAGE’s claim that a full blown pandemic continues.

I’ve worked in mass testing. It’s...
@BreesAnna ...very easy when using a genetic material amplification technique (PCR) to inadvertently ‘find’ things that aren’t there. Hence when used in forensics, there are often legal / technical arguments about admissibility.
Rather than try to explain how “false positives” occur, I...
Read 13 tweets
30 Oct
What SAGE Has Got Wrong – Lockdown Sceptics

It’s Easier to Fool People Than It Is to Convince Them That They Have Been Fooled.” – Mark Twain

Dr Mike Yeadon has a degree in biochemistry and toxicology and a research-based PhD in respiratory...…
... pharmacology. He has spent over 30 years leading new medicines research in some of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies, leaving Pfizer in 2011 as Vice President & Chief Scientist for Allergy & Respiratory. That was the most senior research position in this field...
... in Pfizer. Since leaving Pfizer, Dr Yeadon has founded his own biotech company, Ziarco, which was sold to the worlds biggest drug company, Novartis, in 2017.

I’ve reposted my mini biography. I’m the scientific equal of anyone on SAGE. I even worked in an adjacent lab to...
Read 18 tweets
30 Oct
Thank it JOEL. Please everyone, take a look. Weekly death rate England. It’s entirely NORMAL. There aren’t more deaths than usual. There aren’t more respiratory deaths than normal. Govt claims there is a lethal respiratory virus at large, killing 100s per day.
It is misdiagnosis.
Because there aren’t excess respiratory deaths - and Govt KNOWS there aren’t, there is NO need for any further ‘measures’ that are hurting families, killing people & destroying the economy. This isn’t opinion or forecasting. It’s right in front of your eyes. If you don’t object.. the strongest terms and just say “we the people of U.K. are not doing this; the virus killed people but it’s months ago stopped; your unchecked, error-prone test is lying to us all, cease immediately”, our country & lives are all in peril. With no exaggeration, I’ve....
Read 4 tweets
30 Oct
@J_CD_T Interesting, thanks.
I have a major using seroprevalence to guide us in any way. The process of forming antibodies is long, yet the apparent half life varies so much as to render seroprevalence as uninterpretable. Mild & asymptomatic infections result in too little if any...
@J_CD_T ...antibodies. If we come back a month, or 6 or 9 months later then, depending on the sensitivity of immunoassay used, you could get more of less any numbers.
I do not believe on this basis that seroprevalence is useful in guiding us. Admissions & deaths coupled with properly-...
@J_CD_T ...conducted PCR testing, is the way forward.

By the way: really key point. What is the excess deaths profile in Italy over the last 4 weeks? Remember that Covid19 kills mostly old & very old people with two or more serious chronic illness, they’re typically respiratory...
Read 11 tweets
28 Oct
“About 10% of the global population may be infected by October 2020. Global infection fatality rate is 0.15‐0.20% (0.03‐0.04% in those <70 years)”

You can make an estimate of the % of U.K. population infected by reference to Covid19 fatalities to date & the IFR. It’s not...
...a perfect method, but it yielded around 32% (that’s using the higher IFR; it would be closer to 40% using the lower value).

However you do the maths, even if 100% of us were initially susceptible (as SAGE said), you don’t get “more than 90%” when subtracting 32% from 100%.
Worse, our population never was 100% susceptible. That would have been truly astonishing because viruses tend to be related to other viruses.

Indeed, that rather radical journal, the BMJ, now recognised that around 30% of us had prior immunity to this virus, before it arrived,
Read 10 tweets
27 Oct
Sometimes it’s useful to revisit basic concepts. We appear to have forgotten that immunity after viral infection is the rule, not the exception.

“In this chapter, we highlight the principal means by which the host achieves immunity following infection by viruses”.
“Table 27.1 presents an overview”.
“In humans, viral infections are rarely lethal, even if they are highly cytolytic to individual cells. Mortality commonly occurs when viruses jump species (eg. Ebola or HIV), when virus undergoes major antigenic change (i.e., influenza) or when host immunity is compromised”.
Read 12 tweets

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