How are you all holding up? Shall I tweet out a second set of papers? Or are you too stressed to pay attention?
1. This Lancet Global Health Paper is from a while ago, but really sobering. Estimates that 1.7 billion, or 22% of the world, has at least one underlying condition for Covid risk and 349 mil or 4% are at high risk and would be hospitalized if infected

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32553130/
2. Really interesting preprint that found that seroprevalence in the slums of Mumbai was a whopping 54% compared with 16% in non-slums. But without the deaths you'd expect with that kind of prevalence

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
I referred to these data in this piece about herd immunity. Which I wrote barely 2 mos ago, but feels now like 8 or 9 mos ago

nytimes.com/2020/08/17/hea…
3. Super interesting paper in Cell suggesting a major immune shift between mild infection vs moderate/severe and that moderate disease is the most amenable to therapy

cell.com/cell/fulltext/…
4. More on auto-antibodies in Covid! This time to various kinds of carbohydrates

biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
5. Paper in Blood showing that blocking a specific protein could stop the damaging inflammation in Covid and forestall autoimmunity

ashpublications.org/blood/article/…
6. Report from the React-1 study in the UK. The results aren't that surprising, but I am just blown away by the scale of the effort. Data and swab results from 160K people age 5 and up and that's just from Round 6!

imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
7. Household transmission is a huge and increasing problem (as is gathering between households)

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
8. This one refutes the lovely but misguided idea that childhood vaccines provide some protection against Covid by enhancing the immune response (one of the theories for why kids do better than adults with this virus).

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33112930/

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More from @apoorva_nyc

5 Nov
NEW: We know children rarely get sick from the coronavirus. A new study shows that they make a less diverse and weaker set of antibodies than adults do, suggesting that they clear the virus much faster. 1/10

nytimes.com/2020/11/05/hea…
Why, you may ask, would weaker and narrower set of antibodies mean less severe infection? It seems counter-intuitive. But in fact, many studies have shown that the most severely infected people have much higher levels of antibodies. 2/10
In other words, a really strong immune response can be a sign that earlier immune defenses did not work, and can signal an immune system that is desperately trying to gain mastery over the virus — and sometimes failing. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
4 Nov
As of Oct 29, there were at least 835K children infected with the corionavirus (61K in that last week alone.)

That represents 11% of total infections, according to the @AmerAcadPeds
@AmerAcadPeds Latino children are 73% of infected children overall. Of the 1,100 kids with MISC, 41% of children are Latinx, 35% are Black. And this is probably undercounted.
@AmerAcadPeds OTOH, lots of stresses on children from the pandemic and from schools being closed. Image
Read 4 tweets
4 Nov
All right, here goes, with this latest round of papers and preprints. I don't vouch for the quality of any of them and certainly not the preprints, just noting some interesting and intriguing trends and findings.
1. First on the list is this preprint from many days ago that linked election rallies to an increase in Covid-19 hospitalizations, in one case by 15-fold

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
2. This one's interesting. We know by now that fomites pose low risk of infection, but this suggests that monitoring surfaces can be a good indicator of level of community spread

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Read 11 tweets
3 Nov
I'm going to tweet out a whole bunch of papers I've been looking at so we all have something to read. READY?

1/x
First, this paper in Blood suggests using T cells from recovered patients as therapies for Covid. Like convalescent plasma therapy but T cells instead of antibodies.

ashpublications.org/blood/article/…
And here's a press release for that T cell paper, in case you're interested: eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2…
Read 11 tweets
28 Oct
The perfect antidote to unwarranted fears about declining antibodies: Solid data showing the opposite. Here's news from Ania Wajnberg @florian_krammer et al that antibodies persist for at least five months. 1/x

science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
@florian_krammer I've written about earlier data from this team, here in May, showing that most people, regardless of sex, age and severity of illness make decent antibodies: 2/x

nytimes.com/2020/05/07/hea…
@florian_krammer Or here in July, when they reported data from 20,000 people showing the antibodies persist for at least 3 months. 3/x

nytimes.com/2020/07/22/hea…
Read 4 tweets
27 Oct
The headlines, all of a sudden, are everywhere. UK study showed antibodies to the coronavirus decline so we're all doomed. No immunity, no vaccines, no herd immunity.

People, we have enough real things to worry about. Do not worry about this. 1/x

nytimes.com/2020/10/27/hea…
First of all, antibody levels are *supposed* to drop after the infection clears. Imagine if they didn't: Your blood would be a sludge of every type of antibody to every pathogen you've ever encountered. Hence my surprise yesterday at this paper 2/x

In the British study, in 27% of people who were positive at first, they dropped below detection limit. But the test has 84% sensitivity, and we know not everyone makes really high levels of antibodies after coronavirus infection (although nearly everyone makes some) 3/x
Read 9 tweets

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