Okay, working with some more reliable sources now: Biden had 49,000 votes posted on the City of Milwaukee website as of 4 AM Wednesday (web.archive.org/web/2020110404… ) and 194,000 votes as of 3 PM Wednesday. 102 wards added more than 500 votes, 16 added more than 1000. State margin 20k ImageImageImage
And here are the Benford's law numbers for the leading digits of the early counts and the late counts. (shrug?) Image
Lmao, is this how city elections normally look? This is the percent of each ward's votes Biden won in the final counts Image
Close relationship between the percentages by ward posted early and late; little relationship between the totals posted early and the percentages posted late; many wards had counted very few ballots as of 4 AM but had very high %s as of 3 PM, which I guess we know. ImageImage
And here's the Benford's chi-squared tests from the firstdigit.ado stata package, for the early and late totals. Image
The Jorgenson totals don't violate Benford's law, fwiw Image
So, here are four wards where early counts (as of 4 AM Wednesday morning) had fewer than 350 Biden votes but gained over 1300 Biden votes by afternoon. Ward 138, 177, 183, and 185. Maybe there's a simple story about why, apart from in person being lower than mail throughout. Image
To explain the (not great) variable names above: in Ward 138, Biden had 311 votes at 4 AM, 1773 votes at 3 PM, for a gain of 1462. in the same ward, Trump had 63 votes at 4 AM, 129 votes at 3 PM, for an increase of 66. That is, initial votes were 80% Biden, later votes 96% Biden.
This is Biden's % in early counted ballots versus Biden's % in the counts that were added after 3 AM yesterday. Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Spotted Toad

Spotted Toad Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @toad_spotted

21 Nov
This is the real deal here revolver.news/2020/11/explos…
Some highlights: Montgomery, PA *subtracted tens of thousands of in-person votes that had already been reported and moved them to mail ballots.
The ballots added were not only 95% Biden, but more Libertarian tilted than almost anywhere in the country, allowing the county to make Biden's count slightly less absurd without adding to Trump's count.
Read 11 tweets
18 Nov
There was a surreal moment couple months ago where Newt Gingrich brought up on Fox that Soros funded the campaigns of BLM-sympathetic prosecutors in various cities - a fact reported on extensively in NYT among others- and Fox anchors acted like he was denying the Holocaust on air
It's hard not to see Soros as just the most megalomaniac of a restive class of billionaires, their foundations and intergovernmental organizations, all with roughly overlapping goals
Read 7 tweets
9 Nov
A genuine second wave looks to have arrived in Northeastern metros apart from NYC; the synchrony looks to me sufficient that this would be driven by seasonality and sun-exposure rather than spread. Recommend taking Vitamin D3 if you are not already.
This study found (among fairly light-skinned participants) that at the latitude of Boston D3 synthesis ended in November, at latitude of Edmonton (ie, Europe) in October.
Seasonality is *the* dominant factor in respiratory viruses and related deaths. This discussion of influenza seasonality D-regulation is fascinating,suggests these patterns have deep physiological causes that go beyond transmission being easier inside.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Read 7 tweets
7 Nov
One of the reasons universal vote by mail worked so well as a tactic was that, because the majority of each party's votes came from different data generating procedures, the non-overlap of the distribution isn't evidence for malfeasance in itself- but...
...you can probably calibrate using New York or Utah or other non-tipping point states: what was the distribution of differences between in person and mail voting, and how does it compare with the tipping point states. Assuming the distributions of diffs are very different...
...you would at least need a systematic explanation for why the divergence is different. The innocuous one is better targeted messaging in swing states, the middle (and in my opinion probably predominant one) is legal ballot harvesting, the last is outright fraud.
Read 8 tweets
6 Nov
The thing about that "Milwaukee City Wire" article about over 100% turnout in some wards is it seemed to be pure fake news- at least the totals it listed don't match any I've been able to find- but it did point to a very useful approach of looking at ward-level data.
Now, to be fair, I don't have any ward level counts posted between 4 AM Wednesday and 3 PM. If it happened that earlier data did make the kinds of obvious errors that that article pointed out, and then they were "corrected" to be less egregious, that would be a big story, but...
If that were the case, as they claim, you'd think that the article would have screenshot or linked to some kind of source it was going from, and*the correction downward of hundreds of votes in individual wards*would be a major scandal. But they just say "the totals were adjusted"
Read 4 tweets
6 Nov
Alright,a less snazzy version of earlier analysis,&then I'll quit for a while while I'm behind. Here's early&late counts for Trump and Biden in Milwaukee. Trump's are 1 to 1, while Biden doesn't just get more, totals are all over the place. (Correlations 0.86 & 0.46 respectively)
You could say that the later counts were shifted towards vote-by-mail, which favors Biden, & so a higher slope of his late counts to earlier counts makes sense. But I'm not sure I know why distribution relative to earlier counts would be so chaotic for him + so regular for Trump.
Here's another way of looking at the pattern. These are quantile plots which show the mean levels of new votes by early votes. Trump follows the "line of perfect agreement" almost, well, perfectly, while Biden's increases are pretty wild.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!