1. There's good research on conspiracy theories, which shows for example that 400,000 people would need to be "in" on the lie for the moon landing to have been faked.

Same logic applies here:
2. Can you imagine how many people would have to be in on the lie to steal an election with 144 million votes?

How many of your neighbors, grandparents, random twenty year old volunteers, would all have to be part of some big cover up?
3. And THEN, to make sure the cover up isn't too obvious, you make sure that you lose a bunch of seats in House, and make sure the Senate isn't a landslide.

Make sure that as votes are counted, that several thousand go to Trump. Cus, you don't want to raise suspicion, you see.
4/4. Tl;dr: stfu. please.

Also, here's the research I mentioned above: journals.plos.org/plosone/
5/4. Most of us can't organize a surprise party without the person finding out, but you're going to steal an election. Mahfaka, please.

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More from @AmarAmarasingam

28 Oct
1. There has been a lot of talk about QAnon and a well-known body of work in the sociology of religion/social psychology called the “failure of prophecy”.

A new piece by me and @_MAArgentino for @RDispatches, and a short thread: religiondispatches.org/qanons-predict…
2. As @travis_view noted, earlier this month there was anticipation in QAnon circles about the imminent return of JFK Jr.
3. He of course didn’t return. He’s very dead and has been dead for some time. It’s not the first time QAnon followers predicted something which never happened. And it won’t be the last:
Read 16 tweets
27 Oct
1. Thread on deriving attack motivation from social media posts. We do this all the time, and it is often solidified later as more evidence arises, but sometimes more evidence doesn't come.
2. Think Alek Minassian. We concluded that (1) he was an incel and (2) that he was motivated by his incel ideology based on one Facebook post (at the time). This was later verified by his police interview where he went into great detail about incel identity as a motivating factor
3. But, this isn't always true. We often make the logical leap from finding one piece of evidence for (1) and assume (2) naturally follows.
Read 8 tweets
26 Oct
1. New piece in @Perspectives_T, by Shandon Harris-Hogan, @DawsonLorne, and myself.

A Comparative Analysis of the Nature and Evolution of the
Domestic Jihadist Threat to Australia and Canada (2000–2020). Short thread with a few notable findings: universiteitleiden.nl/binaries/conte… Image
2. Between 2000 and the beginning of 2020, 13 incidents of jihadist inspired violence occurred in Australia (7) and Canada (6) – that is completed attacks. ISIS inspired all of the incidents, and they all occurred within the same four-year period (late 2014 and late 2018). Image
3. The average age of Australian Jihadists was 25.4. Looking at the 32 individuals arrested prior to 2014, the average age was over 28. Post-September 2014, the average age drops to just under 24.

31% (18) of Jihadists in Australia post 2014 were teenagers (0% prior to 2014).
Read 6 tweets
10 Oct
1. A lot of the replies to this post start with “hi, third-world migrant here” and then outline academic and financial and creative successes. I get the impulse to do this and almost did the same. But, I prefer we didn’t.
2. I prefer we didn’t because it feeds into this never-ending cycle of immigrants constantly having to prove themselves, even after decades or generations in a country, even after study after study on our levels of civic engagement, voting, earning, entrepreneurship, and so on.
3. So, I get the impulse to be like, “check my CV and stfu”, but this kind of approach does violence to those in the immigrant community who don’t rise to the level other immigrants in terms of “contribution” - whatever that means.
Read 5 tweets
9 Oct
1. I’ve been talking about a lot of what’s covered in this article in several interviews lately. @intelwire outlines it clearly here.
2. People keep asking if extremism and polarization is on the rise because “people are online all day”. That’s part of it, but much more important has been the utter collapse of norms and taken-for-grantedness in our lives.
3. We don’t want to underestimate how much we depend on these norms and routines to make us feel “rooted” in our own bodies and in our communities. Dropping your kids off at school, listening to a podcast on your commute, coming home, making dinner, bed time routines, etc.
Read 10 tweets
25 Sep
1. There’s also a much broader point of significance to the Abu Huzayfah case, which I’ll try to unpack a bit here:
2. As @StewGlobal and myself found out during our trip to Syria in late 2018, there was a plan afoot to bring Canadian prisoners being held in Kurdish custody back home to Canada around April 2018. globalnews.ca/news/4526514/c…
3. This plan was mysteriously shelved in May 2018. When I asked some of my friends in the Canadian government about this later, they pointed to @rcallimachi's Caliphate podcast and the storm of controversy it had caused in Canada.
Read 10 tweets

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