Replies to @mlipsitch: I listened to your exchange with Prof. Jay Bhattacharya regarding the Great Barrington Declaration. You're operating under several delusions. 1/12
There is no signal in the data that lockdowns do anything significant to reduce spread. Mortality rates are uncorrelated with stringency and second derivative death curves show no regime change. 2/12
Even if they worked, general lockdowns shift the burden onto the vulnerable because they reduce the mobility of the non-vulnerable disproportionately, putting the vulnerable at the “front of the bus”. 3/12
Testing and tracing in the face of infections that massively exceed identified cases is a fool’s errand. 4/12
Economic harms are clearly associated with lockdown stringency. The correlation is highly significant. 5/12
Benefits of mask mandates are also nowhere to be seen in second derivative death curves. 6/12
Herd immunity is not a strategy, but an inevitable end point. 7/12
The “extreme view”, as you put it, is lockdown. The proposals of the GBD3 and Atlas are concordant with approaches taken to all other seasonal respiratory viruses. Seasonality is no longer debatable, and it is clear that IFRs are in the same ballpark as flu. 8/12
Inaction is frequently better than action when it comes to complex systems such as epidemics. The effectiveness of NPIs is so weak and their consequential damage so profound, that it is wise to proceed with care. 9/12
These measures you so enthusiastically pursue are inconsistent with pre-Covid science, for a reason. The extraordinary evidence required to justify their harms does not exist. 10/12
It is wrong to refer to mechanisms as “transmission-slowing” if there is no robust statistical evidence that they do in fact slow transmission. 11/12
That you focus on the location of signature of the GBD, and misrepresent the host and the signatories views to discredit them, speaks volumes for the shallowness of your science. 12/12

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More from @NickHudsonCT

24 Oct
The Covid Narrative has many elements. Every single one is bogus. Have a look at it:

“There’s a DEADLY NEW VIRUS that causes a serious disease to which we are ALL SUSCEPTIBLE. All immunity vanishes, so even if you’re lucky enough to recover, you can catch it and GET SICK AGAIN and it has exceptional LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES.”

“Only LOCKDOWNS AND MASKS CAN SAVE US until we have a vaccine. We should rush that VACCINE and make it mandatory. HERD IMMUNITY IS A STRATEGY, held only by evil people who want to ‘LET IT RIP’ and who don’t see that we need a GREAT RESET.”

Read 12 tweets
5 Oct
This is a turning point. I’ve signed the Great Barrington Declaration and you should too. Here’s why. 1/16
We established @Pandata19 in April 2020, because we perceived the global reaction to Covid as overwrought and damaging to the point of causing a great tear in the fabric of society. See 2/16
Massively exaggerated epidemiological models, social media propaganda and exaggerated reporting struck fear into the hearts of nations. A cry went up to emulate the Wuhan lockdown, though such measures had been eschewed by all pre-Covid science, and for good reason. 3/16
Read 17 tweets
2 Oct
The beautiful infinity of science. Each new conjecture uncovers interesting problems, kindling fresh curiosity. Here the stark and insistent geographic disparity of Covid makes us re-evaluate much. 1/n
Do we at all have a grip on the dynamics of transmission, incubation and susceptibility? Did most of Asia already have an outbreak that was ignored? 2/n
NPIs aren’t doing much, other than bruising our intuitions. Why? Which of our assumptions are wrong? 3/n
Read 6 tweets
29 Sep
You're going to love this from Sep 2019: "it should be expected that implementation of some NPIs, such as travel restrictions and quarantine, might be pursued for social or political purposes by political leaders, rather than pursued because of public health evidence..." 1/4
"WHO should rapidly and clearly articulate its opposition to inappro- priate NPIs, especially when they threaten public health response activities or pose increased risks to the health of the public."

Increased risks indeed:

And the piece de resistance: "WHO and other public health authorities should have the capacity to provide risk/ benefit analysis to national governments, driven by scientific evidence where it exists, before NPIs are initiated in a crisis." 3/4
Read 4 tweets
28 Sep
Remember all those headlines claiming lockdown saved this or that many lives? Gomes & colleagues show how wrong those claims were, especially those of the now notorious paper by Flaxman et al, whose co-authors included (surprise, surprise) Ferguson.
Despite obvious suppression of her earlier work, which must have hurt like hell, the thread I'm retweeting is so polite that it obscures some points that really ought to be made.
Gomes &al build on her previous work introducing heterogeneity in susceptibility, which brings crucial realism into the domain and produces results vastly different from the catastrophizing work that brought us deadly lockdowns.
Read 13 tweets
27 Sep
"[M]edical expert Professor Salim Abdool Karim said that if a second wave of infections hits South Africa in the same way it has hit European nations, tighter lockdown restrictions will be back"

"In the same way as it has hit European nations" means by way of a surge of functional, epidemiological false positives, consequently without deaths.

2/5 Image
It is not possible that he does not know this, so this statement makes Prof Karim a coward, an intellectually dishonest lackey, and a menace to our society. Sorry, but it has to be said. See also:


Read 5 tweets

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