1/S
Sweden did not lockdown in response to COVID-19. Many politically-motivated COVID-19 contrarians try to support Sweden's policy by making misleading comparisons between Sweden + other countries. This thread will address that.
Sweden did not lockdown in response to COVID-19. Many politically-motivated COVID-19 contrarians try to support Sweden's policy by making misleading comparisons between Sweden + other countries. This thread will address that.
https://twitter.com/erichhugo/status/1316287766427246592
2/S
On average, it takes a virus less time to spread thru + kill 50% of a population of 10 people vs. 50% of a population of 10,000 people.
So smaller populations have less time for public health changes, behavior changes, etc. to limit their COVID-19 deaths per capita.
On average, it takes a virus less time to spread thru + kill 50% of a population of 10 people vs. 50% of a population of 10,000 people.
So smaller populations have less time for public health changes, behavior changes, etc. to limit their COVID-19 deaths per capita.
3/S
Also, on average, it takes less time for a virus to spread thru a smaller geographical area.
So microstates' combination of smaller geographical area and smaller population make them a poor, apples-to-oranges comparison to Sweden.
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…
Also, on average, it takes less time for a virus to spread thru a smaller geographical area.
So microstates' combination of smaller geographical area and smaller population make them a poor, apples-to-oranges comparison to Sweden.
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…
4/S
Italy, Spain, + Belgium suffered from the pandemic earlier than did Sweden. So those 3 countries has less time to improve treatments, learn lessons from the responses of other countries, etc., than did Sweden.
So, again, apples-to-oranges comparison
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…
Italy, Spain, + Belgium suffered from the pandemic earlier than did Sweden. So those 3 countries has less time to improve treatments, learn lessons from the responses of other countries, etc., than did Sweden.
So, again, apples-to-oranges comparison
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…
5/S
Belgium also counts deaths differently from others, in a way that relatively increases Belgium's estimate COVID-19 deaths.
npr.org/2020/05/01/848…
reuters.com/article/health…
bbc.com/news/world-eur…
euronews.com/2020/04/22/ana…
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
washingtonpost.com/world/europe/w…
Belgium also counts deaths differently from others, in a way that relatively increases Belgium's estimate COVID-19 deaths.
npr.org/2020/05/01/848…
reuters.com/article/health…
bbc.com/news/world-eur…
euronews.com/2020/04/22/ana…
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
washingtonpost.com/world/europe/w…
6/S
The UK and Netherlands waited for awhile before locking down. And the Netherlands' lockdown was lax.
web.archive.org/web/2020062823…
containmentnu.nl/en/articles/co…
forbes.com/sites/joshuaco…
bbc.com/news/world-eur…
cbsnews.com/news/coronavir…
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…
The UK and Netherlands waited for awhile before locking down. And the Netherlands' lockdown was lax.
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1277381544101937153
web.archive.org/web/2020062823…
containmentnu.nl/en/articles/co…
forbes.com/sites/joshuaco…
bbc.com/news/world-eur…
cbsnews.com/news/coronavir…
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…
7/S
So an ideal comparison to Sweden would be a country with:
- population and geographical size in the same vicinity as Sweden
- similar timing of the pandemic (being geographically near Sweden would help with that)
- prompt, relatively strong lockdown
So who fits that list?
So an ideal comparison to Sweden would be a country with:
- population and geographical size in the same vicinity as Sweden
- similar timing of the pandemic (being geographically near Sweden would help with that)
- prompt, relatively strong lockdown
So who fits that list?
8/S
Thus, comparing Sweden to other Nordic countries makes sense, even though Denmark is at a disadvantage due to a smaller population + smaller geographic size.
2019 population (in millions):
Sweden - 10.2
Denmark - 5.8
Finland - 5.5
Norway - 5.3
google.com/maps/place/Eur…
Thus, comparing Sweden to other Nordic countries makes sense, even though Denmark is at a disadvantage due to a smaller population + smaller geographic size.
2019 population (in millions):
Sweden - 10.2
Denmark - 5.8
Finland - 5.5
Norway - 5.3
google.com/maps/place/Eur…
9/S
There are other benefits to selecting Nordic countries as a comparison to Sweden, such as some similar economic, climate, etc. factors impacting countries located so close to one another + sharing cultural/historical ties.
web.archive.org/web/2020062501…
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
There are other benefits to selecting Nordic countries as a comparison to Sweden, such as some similar economic, climate, etc. factors impacting countries located so close to one another + sharing cultural/historical ties.
web.archive.org/web/2020062501…
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
10/S
So how does Sweden fare in comparison to other Nordic countries?
Disastrously.
That's why so many COVID-19 / lockdown contrarians evade that comparison, including by making apples-to-oranges comparison to microstates, Italy, etc.
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…
So how does Sweden fare in comparison to other Nordic countries?
Disastrously.
That's why so many COVID-19 / lockdown contrarians evade that comparison, including by making apples-to-oranges comparison to microstates, Italy, etc.
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…
11/S
Just remember that the next time politically-motivated COVID-19 contrarians use misleading comparisons to defend Sweden's no-lockdown response to COVID-19.
There's a reason Sweden is such an outlier in its region:
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…
Just remember that the next time politically-motivated COVID-19 contrarians use misleading comparisons to defend Sweden's no-lockdown response to COVID-19.
There's a reason Sweden is such an outlier in its region:
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…
12/S
Further sources on this, for the curious:
academic.oup.com/ectj/article/2…
archive.is/yo5Ac#selectio…
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/01…
content.iospress.com/articles/clini…
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar…
Further sources on this, for the curious:
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1279248244640411649
academic.oup.com/ectj/article/2…
archive.is/yo5Ac#selectio…
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/01…
content.iospress.com/articles/clini…
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar…
13/S
And appealing to excess mortality won't help contrarians, since Sweden did worse there as well.
euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
economist.com/graphic-detail…
archive.is/hD8rM
ft.com/content/a2901c…
bbc.com/news/world-530…
ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess…
And appealing to excess mortality won't help contrarians, since Sweden did worse there as well.
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1294886845323649024
euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
economist.com/graphic-detail…
archive.is/hD8rM
ft.com/content/a2901c…
bbc.com/news/world-530…
ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess…
14/S
Appealing to the economy won't help, since Sweden didn't do much better than its Nordic neighbors.
web.archive.org/web/2020070811…
web.archive.org/web/2020062901…
Quarter 2, GDP growth rate:
Sweden: -8.3%
Denmark: -8.5%
Finland: -5.2%
web.archive.org/web/2020081602…
Appealing to the economy won't help, since Sweden didn't do much better than its Nordic neighbors.
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1302483306823393280
web.archive.org/web/2020070811…
web.archive.org/web/2020062901…
Quarter 2, GDP growth rate:
Sweden: -8.3%
Denmark: -8.5%
Finland: -5.2%
web.archive.org/web/2020081602…
15/S
Re: "And appealing to excess mortality won't help contrarians, since Sweden did worse there as well"
nature.com/articles/s4159…
academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar…
medrxiv.org/node/81038.full
apps.who.int/iris/bitstream…
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…
Re: "And appealing to excess mortality won't help contrarians, since Sweden did worse there as well"
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1312670992918081536
nature.com/articles/s4159…
academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar…
medrxiv.org/node/81038.full
apps.who.int/iris/bitstream…
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…
16/S
Even Sweden's government now knows better.
“Sweden on Monday announced a ban on public events of more than eight people [...]."
swedishchamber.nl/news/sweden-ba…
thelocal.se/20201116/break…
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…
Even Sweden's government now knows better.
“Sweden on Monday announced a ban on public events of more than eight people [...]."
swedishchamber.nl/news/sweden-ba…
thelocal.se/20201116/break…
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1329844181020381189
https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1327478102188912640
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…
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