important study looking at pre-covid serum samples from the US and from sub saharan africa (SSA)

it shows wide variance in pre existing cross-resistance, much stronger in SSA

this strongly supports:

pre-existing resistance
lasting resistance
biome specific resistance patterns Image
the idea that covid 19 is some radically novel zoonotic virus with little to no pre-existing cross resistance has been clearly shown to be false for some time.

there are dozens of studies like this one.

t-cell mediated cross resistance is widespread.

so, the idea that pre-existing resistance is widespread appears pretty well settled.

this also implies that resistance is durable, as not only was it already present but when one looks at SARS-1, resistance has been durable for 17 years.

this is past the point of being controversial and it has profound implications for herd immunity threshold.

the 1-(1/R0) equation presumes no pre-existing resistance (and a perfectly uniform social graph) so it will read MUCH too high here.

it's 15-25%, not 70.
but what this study shows us that's REALLY interesting is the massive variance by biome in this pre existing resistance.

this is precisely what certain internet felines were predicting back in july after looking at asia.

the pac rim nations did many different things yet all got the same result: 1/20th to 1/1000th the covid deaths of european countries that did the exact same things.

no way that's variance in NPI implementation.

it's far too large.

it has to be something more generalized.
attributing it to "masks" is a post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy. "bubble tea consumption" works pretty much just as well.

"pre-existing resistance" made sense. what we lacked was hard biological proof it existed.

but now we have it. Image
these researchers got pre covid blood samples from the US and from tanzania and zambia.

they then used immunofluorescence assays to test for serological-cross reactivity against sars-2 (cov-19).

this is a real, observable measure for pre-existing cross resistance. Image
this lead to both quite significant levels of pre existing IgG driven resistance (antibodies) in africa, but far less in the US. worth noting is that this is just one narrow form of pre-existing immunity.

40-80% of people are showing t-cell mediated cross resistance. Image
but this IgG response looks highly differentiated in africa. this can only be from previous exposure to SARS-like viruses and it appears strongly biome specific.

even the extremely young age of africans vs americans would not affect this.

you only get IgG one way: exposure.
this seems to bolster a major issue i have been raising for months: pre-existing resistance is location specific.

looking at africa/pac rim and saying "we should have done what they did" is not really meaningful if "what they did" was "have more previous exposure to covids."
the role of pre-existing resistance here is massive. it's likely leading to death reductions of 80-99%.

leaving that out of calculations is missing the whole ballgame. it's like looking at a tank and assuming it's the treads that make it bulletproof, not the armor.
then you put treads on your bicycle at great expense, make it slow and hard to pedal, and drive into combat only to get shot dead the minute your enemy manages to stop laughing at how little you seem to understand about what's going on.

don't be that guy.
be very careful with the whole "asia did X and had low deaths so so must we" argument.

masks and lockdowns were even earlier, more intense, and longer lasting in peru and argentina.

it has done nothing. it likely made it worse. Image
peru and belgium, despite adopting all these NPI's early and aggressively now lead the world in per capita covid deaths.

mistaking correlation for causality and mysticism for medicine will do that.

so let's stop doing so, yes?

the society you save may be your own.

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More from @boriquagato

10 Nov
like the moderna trial, pfizer is also using a far more limited definition of "covid 19" than the CDC or US states.

it requires not only a positive PCR test, but also 2 symptoms.

this is because they know that PCR+ alone is FAR too broad and would catch trace and irrelevant COV
why the CDC, us states, et are using such an overbroad definition especially with PCR tests set to 40+ Ct (1 trillion X amplification) is simply beyond me. the FDA and drug companies certainly know better.

even the NYT has known. since august.

nytimes.com/2020/08/29/hea…
an interesting piece of data pfizer could release:

what % of PCR tests were positive and then deemed "false positives" die to lack of symptomatic confirmation?

that could give us some very useful data about the PCR tests.

it might also be different between the cohorts.
Read 4 tweets
9 Nov
you realize that this is low, not high, right?

re-admission for pneumonia is generally around 20% over the next 30 days.

you're looking at 9% over 60 days.

that's not even half and uses twice the duration.

oh, and flu is 14% re-admit over 30 days.

also higher. Image
even in general population, pneumonia was 19%

and re-admit was only 7.4% from pneumonia. it was more often COPD or congestive heart failure

hey, is this starting to sound like covid scare stories?

pro tip: they only sound scary because you've never looked at another disease. Image
even flu is higher than covid.

it's 14% over 30 days vs 9% over 60.

and so this narrative of "more dangerous that flu" keeps unravelling.

honest question: did you even think to look before tweeting that egregious misstatement?

google could have told you in 0.04 seconds. Image
Read 6 tweets
9 Nov
if any of you were harboring any remaining doubts that cuomo is barking mad and utterly disingenuous:

his view: we cannot trust the private sector to distribute the cov vaccine.

we need a new government agency to do it cuz "faster and better"

news.yahoo.com/cuomo-bad-news…
leaving aside the hilarity of the guy whose own state was the worst cov debacle in the US in terms of logistics (hey, how did that HCO trial go? the ventilators you demanded then never used? the ship?) this is really too much:

yes, when has the private sector ever worked? ugh.
this is the biden plan:

gin up some brand new agencies and all new supply chains and let's have the government try to outperform walgreens at logistics and service.

are you fricking joking?

can any sane human think this is a good plan?
Read 7 tweets
8 Nov
i was just out for a walk on the beach.

above and beyond its usual restorative powers, two things made my day today:

1. the cops were driving around in their annoying 4 wheeler using the PA to tell people to put on masks.

the entire beach completely ignored them.
it's like they were not even there and even the cops looked so half-assed and sheepish that it just seems like everyone is finally giving up on this farce.

"no hablamos español"

it's turning into "we pretend to obey and you pretend to make us."
2. after a summer of being weirdly absent, the teenagers were back, lounging around, playing beach tennis, sneaking beers (drinking age is 18 so easier ), & skulking off to the bushes to smoke weed

nice to see a little wholesome rebellion again.

restores your faith in humanity.
Read 6 tweets
7 Nov
another study that is pure assumptive nonsense.

the CDC should be embrasassed. it's just another "sun dance"

you do the dance at 5.30 AM then claim you're the reason the sun rose.

how is this passing for science?

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
there is no causal link at all nor any control.

the disease followed a gompertz curve because that's what viruses do.

this is not even data, it's just assumption.

null hypothesis: this was going to happen anyway as a natural property if community resistance.
i mean, wow, look, these NPI's in delaware were so successful that that had the exact same effect all the way in sweden!

that's some potent stuff!

come on guys. this is literal garbage. how is the CDC publishing this?
Read 6 tweets
6 Nov
"we the people" trusting political parties to administer their own elections and count their own votes is like shepherds trusting wolves to perform the lamb census.

this is painfully obvious when you stop and think about it.

yet decade after decade, we do nothing.

why?
i was once speaking to a hospital CEO about all the regulations in the space and how they made no sense. he said something profound that stuck with me:

"you have to understand, it's not like this because people are idiots. it's like this because someone wants it this way."
this is true of the US electoral process as well. we are the richest, most technologically advanced country in the history of the humanity.

does literally ANYONE believe that if we put our minds to it, we could not create an accurate, verified, real time voting system?
Read 21 tweets

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