@d_spiegel @LettingFocus @SeanBFlanagan @BreesAnna @toadmeister @allisonpearson @ClarkeMicah @Charlotte3003G @MLevitt_NP2013 @SunetraGupta @carlheneghan @MartinKulldorff @AlistairHaimes @FatEmperor @HaraldofW @JuliaHB1 @Iromg @talkRADIO @mgmgomes1 @spectator @unherd @freddiesayers @spikedonline @ProfKarolSikora @HuwMerriman Respectfully, that’s incorrect, Sir David. I bow to you as master statistician. I ask that you recognise there is a great deal of laboratory insight I have that affects the outcome & isn’t amenable to statistical analysis if you’re unaware of these.
Just as a simple example...
@d_spiegel @LettingFocus @SeanBFlanagan @BreesAnna @toadmeister @allisonpearson @ClarkeMicah @Charlotte3003G @MLevitt_NP2013 @SunetraGupta @carlheneghan @MartinKulldorff @AlistairHaimes @FatEmperor @HaraldofW @JuliaHB1 @Iromg @talkRADIO @mgmgomes1 @spectator @unherd @freddiesayers @spikedonline @ProfKarolSikora @HuwMerriman ...the manufacturer’s values for false positives is under ideal conditions & measure the intrinsic limits for example the ability under perfect conditions to distinguish some sequences from all others. This isn’t the main source of false positives at all. These are mostly...
@d_spiegel @LettingFocus @SeanBFlanagan @BreesAnna @toadmeister @allisonpearson @ClarkeMicah @Charlotte3003G @MLevitt_NP2013 @SunetraGupta @carlheneghan @MartinKulldorff @AlistairHaimes @FatEmperor @HaraldofW @JuliaHB1 @Iromg @talkRADIO @mgmgomes1 @spectator @unherd @freddiesayers @spikedonline @ProfKarolSikora @HuwMerriman <lost my place & fell asleep, it’d been a long day>
...caused by issues related to the sample itself (eg biologically they’re very ‘dirty’ & may contain very large amounts of irrelevant bacterial DNA) and / or sample preparation. I use as explainer the comparison of the person...
@d_spiegel @LettingFocus @SeanBFlanagan @BreesAnna @toadmeister @allisonpearson @ClarkeMicah @Charlotte3003G @MLevitt_NP2013 @SunetraGupta @carlheneghan @MartinKulldorff @AlistairHaimes @FatEmperor @HaraldofW @JuliaHB1 @Iromg @talkRADIO @mgmgomes1 @spectator @unherd @freddiesayers @spikedonline @ProfKarolSikora @HuwMerriman ....skilled in the use of a screwdriver to insert a fastener (aka screw). They know exactly how much torque to use to prevent bit ‘cam out’ as it’s turned, damaging the fastener head & usually marring the work. Compare with the learner, who might use the wrong bit, slip, scrape..
@d_spiegel @LettingFocus @SeanBFlanagan @BreesAnna @toadmeister @allisonpearson @ClarkeMicah @Charlotte3003G @MLevitt_NP2013 @SunetraGupta @carlheneghan @MartinKulldorff @AlistairHaimes @FatEmperor @HaraldofW @JuliaHB1 @Iromg @talkRADIO @mgmgomes1 @spectator @unherd @freddiesayers @spikedonline @ProfKarolSikora @HuwMerriman ...the paint & (we’ve all done it) stab themselves in the hand. So this isn’t the fault of the over worked people in sample prep, part of a machine doing at least part of sample prep manually, 300,000 times per day. They’re the equivalent of the inexpert, hand-stabbing learner.
@d_spiegel @LettingFocus @SeanBFlanagan @BreesAnna @toadmeister @allisonpearson @ClarkeMicah @Charlotte3003G @MLevitt_NP2013 @SunetraGupta @carlheneghan @MartinKulldorff @AlistairHaimes @FatEmperor @HaraldofW @JuliaHB1 @Iromg @talkRADIO @mgmgomes1 @spectator @unherd @freddiesayers @spikedonline @ProfKarolSikora @HuwMerriman As someone who as a PhD student spent many, 20h-long days in sample acquisition, processing & testing, doing cell membrane binding studies by radio immunoassay, I wish I could tell you I didn’t make handling errors. But I did, despite being highly motivated & organised, really...
@d_spiegel @LettingFocus @SeanBFlanagan @BreesAnna @toadmeister @allisonpearson @ClarkeMicah @Charlotte3003G @MLevitt_NP2013 @SunetraGupta @carlheneghan @MartinKulldorff @AlistairHaimes @FatEmperor @HaraldofW @JuliaHB1 @Iromg @talkRADIO @mgmgomes1 @spectator @unherd @freddiesayers @spikedonline @ProfKarolSikora @HuwMerriman ....not wanting to mess up, because at nearly worst, I’d lose the entire day. Actually at worst was not being sure I could trust my own results. That’s awful, you feel a fraud. So I would pore over the counts (in triplicate tubes, imagine how many many handling steps are...
@d_spiegel @LettingFocus @SeanBFlanagan @BreesAnna @toadmeister @allisonpearson @ClarkeMicah @Charlotte3003G @MLevitt_NP2013 @SunetraGupta @carlheneghan @MartinKulldorff @AlistairHaimes @FatEmperor @HaraldofW @JuliaHB1 @Iromg @talkRADIO @mgmgomes1 @spectator @unherd @freddiesayers @spikedonline @ProfKarolSikora @HuwMerriman ...involved & the opportunities to get any one of them wrong), looking for evidence of my errors. Sometimes I’d satisfy myself the results are fine. But sometimes it’d be right there: half way through a 12-point competitive displacement curve, a standard, the counts would...
@d_spiegel @LettingFocus @SeanBFlanagan @BreesAnna @toadmeister @allisonpearson @ClarkeMicah @Charlotte3003G @MLevitt_NP2013 @SunetraGupta @carlheneghan @MartinKulldorff @AlistairHaimes @FatEmperor @HaraldofW @JuliaHB1 @Iromg @talkRADIO @mgmgomes1 @spectator @unherd @freddiesayers @spikedonline @ProfKarolSikora @HuwMerriman ...suddenly double or halve. I’d throw the whole lot of nearly a thousand tubes, several samples, binding curves with a handful of test agents, in the virtual bin. Not reliable.
The people diligently working in the sample prep or PCR labs have no opportunity to ‘mark their...
@d_spiegel @LettingFocus @SeanBFlanagan @BreesAnna @toadmeister @allisonpearson @ClarkeMicah @Charlotte3003G @MLevitt_NP2013 @SunetraGupta @carlheneghan @MartinKulldorff @AlistairHaimes @FatEmperor @HaraldofW @JuliaHB1 @Iromg @talkRADIO @mgmgomes1 @spectator @unherd @freddiesayers @spikedonline @ProfKarolSikora @HuwMerriman ...homework’ like this, checking carefully for mistakes, learning where errors were creeping in, so I could modify procedures next time. All I’m saying is that it’s ridiculous to even consider using false positive rates from a manufacturer, or even FPR obtained on samples by...
@d_spiegel @LettingFocus @SeanBFlanagan @BreesAnna @toadmeister @allisonpearson @ClarkeMicah @Charlotte3003G @MLevitt_NP2013 @SunetraGupta @carlheneghan @MartinKulldorff @AlistairHaimes @FatEmperor @HaraldofW @JuliaHB1 @Iromg @talkRADIO @mgmgomes1 @spectator @unherd @freddiesayers @spikedonline @ProfKarolSikora @HuwMerriman ...different people at an earlier date & think they offer even the faintest guide to the operational FPR in a different setting by different people. I’ve seen data from PCR, recently, showing that positivity is twice as high, whenever the lab testing capacity that day, was...
@d_spiegel @LettingFocus @SeanBFlanagan @BreesAnna @toadmeister @allisonpearson @ClarkeMicah @Charlotte3003G @MLevitt_NP2013 @SunetraGupta @carlheneghan @MartinKulldorff @AlistairHaimes @FatEmperor @HaraldofW @JuliaHB1 @Iromg @talkRADIO @mgmgomes1 @spectator @unherd @freddiesayers @spikedonline @ProfKarolSikora @HuwMerriman ...close to 100%, than when only 65% of capacity was used. 11% vs 5%. Repeatedly, week after week. Every time max capacity was reached, over 10% positivity, the next few days, 5-6%, at lower capacity use. I’ve seen this stretch over an entire month (October). After the amount...
@d_spiegel @LettingFocus @SeanBFlanagan @BreesAnna @toadmeister @allisonpearson @ClarkeMicah @Charlotte3003G @MLevitt_NP2013 @SunetraGupta @carlheneghan @MartinKulldorff @AlistairHaimes @FatEmperor @HaraldofW @JuliaHB1 @Iromg @talkRADIO @mgmgomes1 @spectator @unherd @freddiesayers @spikedonline @ProfKarolSikora @HuwMerriman ...of time I’ve spent in labs, making mistakes & sometimes seeing them, and the decades after that, working with people & their results, I can tell you that I don’t believe for a moment that those results were a measure of who was infected & who wasn’t.
The easiest explanation..
@d_spiegel @LettingFocus @SeanBFlanagan @BreesAnna @toadmeister @allisonpearson @ClarkeMicah @Charlotte3003G @MLevitt_NP2013 @SunetraGupta @carlheneghan @MartinKulldorff @AlistairHaimes @FatEmperor @HaraldofW @JuliaHB1 @Iromg @talkRADIO @mgmgomes1 @spectator @unherd @freddiesayers @spikedonline @ProfKarolSikora @HuwMerriman ...include things like liquid transfer errors, when pressure for speed leads to accidental contamination as the aliquot is dispensed, or tips clip a vessel edge and lead to a mini splash too small to see, among myriad possibilities. PCR, run to high Ct / amplification is...
@d_spiegel @LettingFocus @SeanBFlanagan @BreesAnna @toadmeister @allisonpearson @ClarkeMicah @Charlotte3003G @MLevitt_NP2013 @SunetraGupta @carlheneghan @MartinKulldorff @AlistairHaimes @FatEmperor @HaraldofW @JuliaHB1 @Iromg @talkRADIO @mgmgomes1 @spectator @unherd @freddiesayers @spikedonline @ProfKarolSikora @HuwMerriman ...fraught with risk that a tiny amount of contamination leads to a signal interpreted as “positive”, when it’s an error. Our Pillar 2 PCR labs never retest positives. They should, and always used to, but not now.
In case you think I’m taking this too far, there have been...
@d_spiegel @LettingFocus @SeanBFlanagan @BreesAnna @toadmeister @allisonpearson @ClarkeMicah @Charlotte3003G @MLevitt_NP2013 @SunetraGupta @carlheneghan @MartinKulldorff @AlistairHaimes @FatEmperor @HaraldofW @JuliaHB1 @Iromg @talkRADIO @mgmgomes1 @spectator @unherd @freddiesayers @spikedonline @ProfKarolSikora @HuwMerriman ...numerous examples, in the published literature, of false positive rates in the 10% range & once or twice, pretty much 100%.
The example I draw to your attention is the infamous “PCR false positive pseudo epidemic of whooping cough”. Hundreds of patients were apparently ill...
@d_spiegel @LettingFocus @SeanBFlanagan @BreesAnna @toadmeister @allisonpearson @ClarkeMicah @Charlotte3003G @MLevitt_NP2013 @SunetraGupta @carlheneghan @MartinKulldorff @AlistairHaimes @FatEmperor @HaraldofW @JuliaHB1 @Iromg @talkRADIO @mgmgomes1 @spectator @unherd @freddiesayers @spikedonline @ProfKarolSikora @HuwMerriman ...and the diagnosis was solely PCR for pertussis, plus various coughs. Eventually, an older medic decided to retest the patients by culturing pertussis from samples from the patients. Not a single person was infected. All PCR positive tests were false positives. It was a...
@d_spiegel @LettingFocus @SeanBFlanagan @BreesAnna @toadmeister @allisonpearson @ClarkeMicah @Charlotte3003G @MLevitt_NP2013 @SunetraGupta @carlheneghan @MartinKulldorff @AlistairHaimes @FatEmperor @HaraldofW @JuliaHB1 @Iromg @talkRADIO @mgmgomes1 @spectator @unherd @freddiesayers @spikedonline @ProfKarolSikora @HuwMerriman ...horrible wrench both for medics & patients plus parents to accept no one was ill.
A forensic style follow up revealed that tiny amounts of contamination from the standard in the bench had got into every sample. This was a hospital lab & not under pressure, just a mistaken...
@d_spiegel @LettingFocus @SeanBFlanagan @BreesAnna @toadmeister @allisonpearson @ClarkeMicah @Charlotte3003G @MLevitt_NP2013 @SunetraGupta @carlheneghan @MartinKulldorff @AlistairHaimes @FatEmperor @HaraldofW @JuliaHB1 @Iromg @talkRADIO @mgmgomes1 @spectator @unherd @freddiesayers @spikedonline @ProfKarolSikora @HuwMerriman ...procedure.
I ask you stop suggesting I’m making things up & consider the possibility there’s a systematic error here in centralised labs under unbearable pressure, staffed mostly with inexperienced techs. It’s more likely than the immunologically impossible things we’re...
@d_spiegel @LettingFocus @SeanBFlanagan @BreesAnna @toadmeister @allisonpearson @ClarkeMicah @Charlotte3003G @MLevitt_NP2013 @SunetraGupta @carlheneghan @MartinKulldorff @AlistairHaimes @FatEmperor @HaraldofW @JuliaHB1 @Iromg @talkRADIO @mgmgomes1 @spectator @unherd @freddiesayers @spikedonline @ProfKarolSikora @HuwMerriman ...invited to believe (viruses don’t do waves, for example & it’s unprecedented for anything faintly close to SAGE’s predictions to happen, yet no narrative why we should expect it is forthcoming).
I have no incentive to be exhausting myself trying to get some light shined...
@d_spiegel @LettingFocus @SeanBFlanagan @BreesAnna @toadmeister @allisonpearson @ClarkeMicah @Charlotte3003G @MLevitt_NP2013 @SunetraGupta @carlheneghan @MartinKulldorff @AlistairHaimes @FatEmperor @HaraldofW @JuliaHB1 @Iromg @talkRADIO @mgmgomes1 @spectator @unherd @freddiesayers @spikedonline @ProfKarolSikora @HuwMerriman ...on extraordinarily unlikely claims, except that I’m sure they’re wrong. I’m unpaid, not in the best of health, I’ve never campaigned in my life & would rather not.
Have a look at these & if you see some parallels, please use your considerable influence to get the lid off...
@d_spiegel @LettingFocus @SeanBFlanagan @BreesAnna @toadmeister @allisonpearson @ClarkeMicah @Charlotte3003G @MLevitt_NP2013 @SunetraGupta @carlheneghan @MartinKulldorff @AlistairHaimes @FatEmperor @HaraldofW @JuliaHB1 @Iromg @talkRADIO @mgmgomes1 @spectator @unherd @freddiesayers @spikedonline @ProfKarolSikora @HuwMerriman cdc.gov/pertussis/outb…
Even the CDC recognises it can happen. If you google PCR false positive pseudo-epidemics (minus this example) you’ll find it can & does happen. It’s not necessary to go as far as to suggest that’s what we have now (obv not in spring, where tens of....

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More from @MichaelYeadon3

8 Nov
Assuming this advert from an estate agent is correct, the housing market remains open during LD#2.

”We are open and here to help in the safest possible way.
In line with latest Government’s guidelines on home moving, the housing market will remain open during the national...
... lockdown which started yesterday, the 5th November 2020, and all our offices in England will continue to operate.
 
Exceptions on leaving home include undertaking any of the following activities in connection with the purchase, sale, letting or rental of a residential...
... property:
 

Visiting estate or letting agents, developer sales offices or show homes

Viewing residential properties to look for a property to buy or to rent

Preparing a residential property to move in

Moving house

Visiting a residential property to undertake...
Read 33 tweets
3 Nov
@berniespofforth Honestly, is the world so full of people who can spend all day on the net, but can’t find a half hour to peruse a simple, immunology text?
It’s not an edgy view to suggest that, having survived infection by a simple, non-immunotoxic, epitope-stable virus, that robust, durable...
@berniespofforth ...immunity follows, is the general rule, not in any way the exception. It’s not conveyed mostly by antibodies, though such titres are sometimes raised, but through memory T-cells. This is why cellular immunologists knew exactly what studies to run on representative samples of...
@berniespofforth ...stored blood, as soon as then knew what was coming round the globe. Those techniques aren’t easy, technically, but they’re well established. We even ran analogous studies maybe 25y ago in a new drug program. First full papers were out on this topic mid-April, IIRC.
No one in..
Read 9 tweets
2 Nov
@CJforeveryoung @grahambradymp I’ve briefed him in writing in a ‘one pager’ as I guessed he’s too busy to read more than an ‘executive summary’.
He replied ‘thanks’ but it was probably his office manager.
I’ve briefed 16 MPs personally, one 4x in one day! (He kept calling to check one more thing!). One...
@CJforeveryoung @grahambradymp ...other MP called me at home two weeks ago. They agreed to file a series of written Qs. So I wrote a series of tightly worded Qs to Mr Hancock re PCR testing & to the Cabinet Sec (to whom SAGE formally reports according to a friend in Public Law). I’ve not been told we’ve..
@CJforeveryoung @grahambradymp ...any answers yet. I’m told they’re taken v seriously in Hansard so in due course they have to answer. But so long as they’re not obviously evasive & haven’t lied, it gets you nowhere.
I see someone recently asked about “PCR false positives” but failed to time-bound the Q. So..
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
COVID-19: Do We Have a Coronavirus Pandemic, or a PCR Test Pandemic? - AAPS | Association of American Physicians and Surgeons

I’m not alone is completely distrusting current PCR mass testing.
“Coronavirus is not a pseudo-epidemic... aapsonline.org/covid-19-do-we…
... epidemic. Many thousands have died. But the dreaded “second wave” might be a surge of false positive tests that are inevitable in mass screenings of healthy persons.

The CDC limits the primers and probes that may be used for PCR testing. For the viral sequences that may...
... be used for viral surveillance and research, the CDC posts this disclaimer on its website, cdc.gov: “Every effort has been made to assure the accuracy of the sequences, but CDC cannot provide any warranty regarding their accuracy.”

It’s not only primers...
Read 17 tweets
1 Nov
@BreesAnna Please read my very accessible review of the pandemic here:
lockdownsceptics.org/what-sage-got-…
Nothing here is my speculation. All drawn from peer reviewed journals or work in review by worlds top immunologists & epidemiologists.
@BreesAnna Since writing this I’ve come across several anomalies in the public record.
1. Virtually no excess seats since July.
2. NO EXCESS RESPIRATORY DEATHS since July.
These are inconsistent with SAGE’s claim that a full blown pandemic continues.

I’ve worked in mass testing. It’s...
@BreesAnna ...very easy when using a genetic material amplification technique (PCR) to inadvertently ‘find’ things that aren’t there. Hence when used in forensics, there are often legal / technical arguments about admissibility.
Rather than try to explain how “false positives” occur, I...
Read 13 tweets
31 Oct
In U.K. in spring there was an v strong relationship between covid19 deaths & excess deaths. Correlation isn’t causation but it’s strong evidence - in spring - that the one is responsible for the other. In formal terms it’s consistent with that hypothesis. We’d expect it, too.
In recent weeks this has completely broken down. It’s no longer possible to stand up the claim that covid19 deaths & excess deaths are causatively linked. In formal terms the data are not consistent with the hypothesis that covid19 deaths are the cause of any excess deaths.
I forgot to say, the most likely explanation for this inconsistency is that our measurements are wrong.
The PCR test for Covid19, like all such tests, is capable of ‘producing a misdiagnosis’.
Technically we call it false positives. When a testing system is overstretched and...
Read 57 tweets

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