Dave Wasserman Profile picture
Nov 11, 2020 58 tweets 18 min read Read on X
The first state to certify its 2020 election results? Delaware:

Biden 296,268 (58.7%)
Trump 200,603 (39.8%)

That's a 7.6 point margin swing against Trump and a 14.2 percent increase in votes cast vs. 2016. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…?
(adding WY to start a state certification thread)
Oklahoma has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 1,020,280 (65.4%)
Biden 503,890 (32.3%)

That's a 3.3 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 7.4% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…?
South Carolina has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 1,385,103 (55.1%)
Biden 1,091,541 (43.4%)

That's a 2.6 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 19.5% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…?
South Dakota has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 261,043 (61.8%)
Biden 150,471 (35.6%)

That's a 3.6 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 14.2% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…?
Vermont has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 242,820 (66.1%)
Trump 112,704 (30.7%)

That's a 9.0 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 16.6% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…?
North Dakota has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 235,595 (65.1%)
Biden 114,902 (31.8%)

That's a 2.4 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 5.1% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…?
Florida has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 5,668,731 (51.2%)
Biden 5,297,045 (47.9%)

That's a 2.2 point margin swing towards Trump vs. 2016 and a 17.5% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…?
Louisiana has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 1,255,776 (58.5%)
Biden 856,034 (39.9%)

That's a 1.0 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 5.9% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…?
Kentucky has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 1,326,646 (62.1%)
Biden 772,474 (36.2%)

That's a 3.9 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 11.1% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…?
New Hampshire has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 424,921 (52.7%)
Trump 365,654 (45.4%)

That's a 7.0 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and an 8.3% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…?
Georgia has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 2,474,507 (49.5%)
Trump 2,461,837 (49.3%)

That's a 5.4 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 22.1% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…?
Virginia has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 2,413,568 (54.1%)
Trump 1,962,430 (44.0%)

That's a 4.8 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 12.0% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…?
Michigan has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 2,804,040 (50.6%)
Trump 2,649,852 (47.8%)

That's a 3.0 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 15.4% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Utah has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 865,140 (58.1%)
Biden 560,282 (37.6%)

That's a 2.4 point margin swing towards Trump vs. 2016 and a 31.5% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Alabama has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 1,441,170 (62.0%)
Biden 849,624 (36.6%)

That's a 2.3 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 9.4% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Massachusetts has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 2,382,202 (65.6%)
Trump 1,167,202 (32.1%)

That's a 6.3 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 9.2% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Maine has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 435,072 (53.1%)
Trump 360,737 (44.0%)

That's a 6.1 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 9.6% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Maine's 1st CD certified results:

Biden 266,376 (60.1%)
Trump 164,045 (37.0%)

That's a 8.3 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 12.4% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Maine's 2nd CD certified results:

Trump 196,692 (52.3%)
Biden 168,696 (44.8%)

That's a 2.8 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 6.5% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
New Mexico has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 501,614 (54.3%)
Trump 401,894 (43.5%)

That's a 2.6 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 15.7% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
North Carolina has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 2,758,775 (49.9%)
Biden 2,684,292 (48.6%)

That's a 2.3 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 16.5% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Texas has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 5,890,347 (52.1%)
Biden 5,259,126 (46.5%)

That's a 3.4 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 26.2% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Minnesota has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 1,717,049 (52.4%)
Trump 1,484,048 (45.3%)

That's a 5.6 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and an 11.3% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Pennsylvania has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 3,458,229 (50.0%)
Trump 3,377,674 (48.8%)

That's a 1.9 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 13.1% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Arkansas has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 760,647 (62.4%)
Biden 423,932 (34.8%)

That's a 0.7 point margin swing towards Trump vs. 2016 and a 7.8% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Indiana has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 1,729,516 (57.0%)
Biden 1,242,413 (41.0%)

That's a 3.1 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 10.9% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Connecticut has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 1,080,680 (59.2%)
Trump 715,291 (39.2%)

That's a 6.4 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 10.9% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Nevada has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 703,486 (50.1%)
Trump 669,890 (47.7%)

That's a margin swing of 0.0 points vs. 2016 and a 24.9% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Ohio has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 3,154,834 (53.3%)
Biden 2,679,165 (45.2%)

That's a 0.1 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 7.7% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Arizona has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 1,672,143 (49.4%)
Trump 1,661,686 (49.1%)

That's a 3.9 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 31.6% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Rhode Island has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 307,486 (59.4%)
Trump 199,922 (38.6%)

That's a 5.3 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and an 11.6% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Wisconsin has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 1,630,866 (49.4%)
Trump 1,610,184 (48.8%)

That's a 1.4 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 10.8% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Alaska has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 189,951 (52.8%)
Biden 153,778 (42.8%)

That's a 4.7 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 12.8% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Iowa has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 897,672 (53.1%)
Biden 759,061 (44.9%)

That's a 1.2 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and an 8.0% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Montana has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 343,602 (56.9%)
Biden 244,786 (40.5%)

That's a 4.1 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 21.4% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
West Virginia has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 545,382 (68.6%)
Biden 235,984 (29.7%)

That's a 3.1 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and an 11.4% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
The District of Columbia has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 317,323 (92.1%)
Trump 18,586 (5.4%)

That's the same margin as in 2016 and a 10.6% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Tennessee has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 1,852,475 (60.7%)
Biden 1,143,711 (37.5%)

That's a 2.8 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 21.8% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Kansas has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 771,406 (56.2%)
Biden 570,323 (41.6%)

That's a 5.9 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 15.9% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
New York has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 5,230,985 (60.9%)
Trump 3,244,798 (37.8%)

That's a 0.6 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and an 11.3% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Mississippi has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 756,789 (57.6%)
Biden 539,508 (41.1%)

That's a 1.3 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and an 8.6% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Oregon has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 1,340,383 (56.5%)
Trump 958,448 (40.4%)

That's a 5.1 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and an 18.6% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Illinois has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 3,471,915 (57.5%)
Trump 2,446,891 (40.6%)

That's a 0.1 point margin swing towards Trump vs. 2016 and a 9.0% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Washington has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 2,369,612 (58.0%)
Trump 1,584,651 (38.8%)

That's a 3.5 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 21.5% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Nebraska has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 556,846 (58.5%)
Biden 374,583 (39.4%)

That's a 5.9 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 12.7% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Nebraska's 1st CD certified results:

Trump 180,290 (56.3%)
Biden 132,261 (41.3%)

That's a 5.7 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 13.4% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Nebraska's 2nd CD certified results:

Biden 176,468 (52.2%)
Trump 154,377 (45.7%)

That's an 8.8 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 15.8% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Nebraska's 3rd CD certified results:

Trump 222,179 (75.6%)
Biden 65,854 (22.4%)

That's a 1.0 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and an 8.8% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Maryland has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 1,985,023 (65.4%)
Trump 976,414 (32.2%)

That's a 6.8 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 9.2% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Missouri has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 1,718,736 (56.8%)
Biden 1,253,014 (41.4%)

That's a 3.2 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 7.7% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
New Jersey has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 2,608,335 (57.3%)
Trump 1,883,274 (41.4%)

That's a 1.8 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 17.4% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Colorado has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 1,804,352 (55.4%)
Trump 1,364,607 (41.9%)

That's an 8.6 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 17.1% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
California has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 11,110,250 (63.5%)
Trump 6,006,429 (34.3%)

That's a 0.9 point margin swing towards Trump vs. 2016 and a 23.4% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Idaho has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 554,119 (63.9%)
Biden 287,021 (33.1%)

That's a 1.0 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 25.6% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Hawaii has certified its 2020 election results:

Biden 366,130 (63.7%)
Trump 196,864 (34.3%)

That's a 2.7 point margin swing towards Trump vs. 2016 and a 33.9% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
All 50 states and D.C. have now certified their 2020 election results:

Biden 81,282,376 (51.3%)
Trump 74,222,576 (46.9%)

That's a 2.4 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 15.9% increase in votes cast.
That's all, folks (except for minor amendments to certified results states sometimes post). Thanks for using our tracker! Image

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More from @Redistrict

Oct 14, 2023
How is it Dems are cleaning up in special elections/referendums if their national poll numbers are so bad? Because in the Trump era, Dems are excelling w/ the most civic-minded, highly-engaged voters.

Their biggest weakness? Peripheral voters who only show up in presidentials.
A big reason Dems beat pundit/historical expectations in the midterms? Only 112M people voted, including a disproportionate turnout among voters angry at Dobbs/abortion bans (many of them young/female).

But there will be ~160M voters in 2024. So who are those extra 48M voters?
They skew young, unaffiliated, nonwhite and non-college. They’re also more likely to base their choice on a simplistic evaluation of whether the economy was better under Trump or Biden.

On this question - and on immigration/age concerns - Biden is routinely getting clobbered.
Read 5 tweets
May 11, 2022
On the other hand, Trump-endorsed Charles Herbster (R) is on track to lose the #NEGOV GOP primary badly.
Herbster doing a little better with more Trump-aligned EDay votes reporting, but still not on track to win. #NEGOV
Never underestimate the Trumpiness of the EDay vote. Still a long way to go in #NEGOV.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 7, 2022
Fact: of the 301 new House districts that have now been adopted, just 17 (5.6%) went for Biden or Trump by five points or less, down from 39 of 301 (13.0%) districts in the same states currently.
Back in 2012, after the last redistricting round, 66/435 districts went for Obama or McCain by five points or less. By 2020, only 51/435 districts went for Biden or Trump by five points or less - in other words, voter self-sorting explains a lot of the competitive decline.
But the 2022 redistricting cycle is rapidly compounding the decline. There may only be 30-35 seats in that range by the time all is said and done.

So the House's pro-GOP bias may be reduced or eliminated, but the House is also on pace to be more anti-competitive than ever.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 3, 2022
NEW: for the first time, Dems have taken the lead on @CookPolitical's 2022 redistricting scorecard. After favorable developments in NY, AL, PA et. al., they're on track to net 2-3 seats from new maps vs. old ones.*
*There's still quite a bit of uncertainty in:

- FL, where Rs are debating how aggressive to be
- NC/OH, where courts may order big changes to GOP maps
- PA, where the state Sup Ct will select a map
- AL/LA/SC, where SCOTUS could decide on additional Black opportunity seats
*Evergreen disclaimer: this doesn't mean Dems are on track to gain House seats *overall* in 2022. A 2-3 seat redistricting gain is significant, but a 42% Biden approval rating could be worth several dozen seats to the GOP in November.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 28, 2022
NEW: Dem leaders in Albany are set to release maps in the next 72 hours, but there's still tension between Marc Elias/Sean Patrick Maloney - who are pushing for a hyper-aggressive 23D-3R gerrymander - and Upstate Dem incumbents who'd like more minor changes to their districts.
At issue: it's theoretically possible to draw a 23D-3R gerrymander w/ 23 double-digit Biden seats (example, left). But it would require Dem Reps. Paul Tonko #NY20, Joe Morelle #NY25 and Brian Higgins #NY26 to give up some existing blue turf (current map, right).
There's talk NY Dems might instead propose a milder 22D-4R gerrymander that leaves Tonko, Morelle and Higgins districts intact but still shores up #NY18 Maloney & #NY19 Delgado (rough sketch below).

In this scenario, #NY22 Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) could be spared.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 26, 2022
BREAKING: national Dems are using a "communities of interest" argument to urge their Albany counterparts to adopt an aggressive 23D-3R gerrymander that could wipe out five of NY's eight GOP seats. nyirc.gov/storage/commen… Image
Highlights of the 23D-3R plan recommended by commenter "Sean Patrick:"

- Staten Island #NY11 drawn in w/ Lower Manhattan
- New maj-min #NY02 on Long Island
- #NY27 Jacobs (R) merged w/ #NY23 Reed (R)
- #NY22 Tenney (R) put in a D-leaning seat
- #NY03 crosses Long Island Sound
More highlights of the Maloney plan submitted via public comment to NY's redistricting site:

- #NY16 Bowman (D) goes from Bronx to rural Dutchess
- #NY17 Jones (D) goes to the Catskills
- #NY19 Delgado (D) goes to Ithaca/Binghamton
- #NY25 Morelle (D) picks up Buffalo suburbs Image
Read 4 tweets

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