cov exists in contagious form for ~5 days but in detectable form for ~77.

this is leading to massive false positives for clinical cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

this vastly distorts the data that is then used to drive policy.

we're on the gerbil wheel to hell.
this is what's driving the "casedemic". it's also what's driving much of the deaths data because so many are counting "death with" covid instead of "death from." sweden even goes so far as to count any death from any cause within 30 days of cov diagnosis as "covid death"
so you die from being an 85 year old with congestive heart failure but get counted as "covid" either because you had trace disease or because you picked it up opportunistically in the hospital.
this is leading to all kinds of bizarre data outcomes that look nothing like the way anything else is measured.

it's telling that when real drug companies and the FDA set protocols for testing vaccines, they do NOT accept a simple + PCR as a proof std.

this is true in the pfizer trial as well.

in fact, i am not aware of a single vaccine trial that accepts just a PCR+ as proof of a case.

yet this is what all our data and public decision making is based upon.

and it's full blown ruining us.

we've gotten the basic measurement here catastrophically wrong.

even the NYT has figured this out.

quite possibly 90% of all positives are non clinical.

think about how badly this misstates the situation.

nytimes.com/2020/08/29/hea…
for those not up on this issue of oversensitive PCR tests, i did a deeper look at this issue here.

cliff notes: US tests at 40 Ct amplification. that's 1000X as sensitive as 30Ct. no live virus EVER found over 34

our tests are 100-1000X too sensitive

all cause deaths in a place like the US become impossible to read because lockdowns have caused so many excess deaths that it's hard to separate from covid and the 2 line up so well temporally.

this addresses much of that.

all cause deaths in sweden who did not lock down look utterly normal for the trailing flu year.

they have lots of "covid deaths" but all cause deaths look the same as the neighbors.

it's mostly over-counting with over sensitive tests and definitions.

and this spills over into every single metric. ironically, it makes hospitalization rates for covid into gibberish and possibly a contrary indicator

if 90% of positives are non-clinical, when you re-open to electives, you pick up piles of new "cases" that are just RNA fragments
so the act of opening hospitals because things are good makes it look like hospitals are flooded with new covid because you're catching bits of virus from months ago (or nosocomial contamination) in people who are actually healthy and just needed care for something else.
hospitals LOVE this.

upcoding to covid brings in $10, 30, 50k in cash

it's a gravy train of CARES funding

testing too. 1.3 mm tests a day is a $60bn a year biz that just appeared from nowhere

see if you can spot the massive windfall:

revs +52% seq. income up 207%.

wowsa.
when people ask, hey, why would a testing lab use such an over sensitive assay, it's hard not to laugh.

um, that's why. the $568mm of net income in Q3 vs 184 the Q before and 215 a year ago.

that's beyond even fever dreams of avarice for companies like quest.
it's not a conspiracy, it's rational economic actors responding to bad incentives.

put a pile of money on the table, lay out the rules for getting it, and away they go.

bad incentives lead to bad outcomes.

i've written on this before.

this is why the CARES act and all this covid slush money has to go away.

we're subsidizing the mining and overstatement of covid and that, in turn, is being used to inform freedom robbing and economically catastrophic policy.

we're literally paying to have our lives taken.
we have built a machine that feeds on this money and produces needless terror and unmitigated social harm while allowing popinjay politicians to ride around like conquering dictators shouting orders and gives them the unbridled hubris to demand we thank them for it.
this is what fascism is guys. it's the textbook definition.

it's government and media and industry all in one cart together feeding one another and getting more powerful and richer by imposing their will upon the people.

does this sound familiar?
the government that sets testing and standards "consults" with the testing companies about what it should be and they agree to go with what's super profitable and allows maximum power accumulation by the state. then, the media cheer-leads

big companies LOVE fascism

always have
it cements their control and influence and it crushes small companies that lack political connections and influence.

the sea of lobbyists currently pouring into DC is going to be a bonanza of 1930's level pork gluttony.

and they do not have your best interests at heart.
this is what has gotten loose in NY and NJ and CA and IL.

it's poised to go national.

fear is means by which such politicians grab power. they unify vs an external enemy and take your rights for your own safety.

secretly, they don't believe you deserve or even want them.
presuming this is not so, then it's time to stand up and demand an end to this farce.

when you get industry and media and government in the same cart, the people ALWAYS lose.

always.

stay brave, and stay free.

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More from @boriquagato

15 Nov
on friday, governor wanda "lockdown" vazquez announced a tightening of puerto rico's restrictions and a whole set of "BEHAVE OR WE'LL MAKE IT WORSE!" threats.

among them:

• The National Guard has been activated to enforce EO compliance.

photo from VSJ promenade this morning: Image
let's hope this is just an unfortunate coincidence, but when you hear this kind of absolutist talk that puts systems over people, well, it's not hard to imagine the sound of jackboots

“We will not under any circumstance allow our health system to be placed at risk,” she said Image
“If during this new order that ends on December 11, we do not see a response from citizens and businesses in compliance, we would have to take more severe measures. I trust that those who are not complying will reconsider ” , Vázquez warned.

("cackled gleefully" is more like it) Image
Read 5 tweets
14 Nov
this is literal nonsense and propaganda.

it's also very possibly medical malpractice.

the idea that a patient healthy enough to tell you this needs to be intubated is ridiculous.

this "vent early, vent hard" strategy was a massive killer of patients.

it's disastrously wrong.
i do not know who this nurse is, but she's a liar or a fool. probably both. the move from early, aggressive venting to proning and O2 has saved an enormous number of lives.

was just talking about this the other day.

but this is NOT new news.

certain internet felines (and a great many of the smart physicians) had figured this out back in april.

this is not a perfect measure, but it's close enough and bolstered by reports from many physicians to whom i've spoken.

Read 8 tweets
13 Nov
@elonmusk you cannot quite think about it that way.

you need to consider specificity of the test (what % of true neg will test pos) but that will not give you false pos without knowing prevalence.

98% specificity at 2% prevalence = 50% of positives are false.

@4%, only 1.3 are false
@elonmusk @4 this then runs into further complexity when you consider PCR artifacts.

we run the US as 40 Ct. anything over about 30 is non-clinical. so out test is 1000x too sensitive.

so false + rises (clinically) as there is a bigger tail of recovered.

@elonmusk @4 this makes for a total mess of cross variables.

add in the rapid tests which are antigen, not pathogen and can catch disease from even back i march, and the + rate really gets out of hand.

it's not a coincidence that %+ is spiking since that test rolled out.
Read 5 tweets
13 Nov
as part of the new exec order once more cranking down on puerto rico is this little gem:

not only must every restaurant post its capacity (at 30% of normal) but the poster must have the number to dial to report non-compliance.

fascism works best when you do the work for them.
this is the sort of "karen-oia" that gets used to divide a people and make them fearful of one another as well as the state

it's an old trick from authoritarian communist/fascist regimes

then, of course, the obligatory threats:

the beatings will continue until morale improves! Image
as ever, there is zero science to it, just nonsense.

we were at 50% open, then 55% (yes, really), now 30%

but hey, now we can't go to the beach anymore (again) except for "individual sports"

no fresh air for you! stay inside where covid spreads better

what. utter. muppets. Image
Read 4 tweets
13 Nov
this is a foolish take and a misreporting of facts.

lockdowns and masks have no beneficial effect on spread.

but cases are a terrible metric because the tests are so over-sensitive (and testing level varies)

you pick up trace virus from months ago.
this means that in a place like sweden that had more spread before, you have a larger body of recovered, non-clinical patients to give you false positives.

this is why deaths are showing such a different story.

(and sweden counts more inclusively by far than US, EU)
"cases" as defined by just "a positive pcr test" are a nearly meaningless metric.

more on that here:

Read 8 tweets
12 Nov
a proposal:

if guys like osterholm (currently suggesting 4-6 wk hard lockdown) are going to drive policy based on their "models" then the government agencies imposing it should be required to make a prediction market based on them

over under on hospitalization: 48 million, etc.
they do not get to adjust their odds or levels unless they change their model and modify policy accordingly.

they seem to have no issue putting YOUR skin into this game, but how do you think they would act if they had to put THEIRS in?

think they might be a bit more cautious?
right now, they face a bad incentive set.

taking your liberty gives them more power. your loss is their win.

but this would even the score.

you could bet against their stupid policy and clean up.

and they would have to play it straight, not engage in fear mongering fabulism.
Read 4 tweets

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