@elonmusk you cannot quite think about it that way.

you need to consider specificity of the test (what % of true neg will test pos) but that will not give you false pos without knowing prevalence.

98% specificity at 2% prevalence = 50% of positives are false.

@4%, only 1.3 are false
@elonmusk @4 this then runs into further complexity when you consider PCR artifacts.

we run the US as 40 Ct. anything over about 30 is non-clinical. so out test is 1000x too sensitive.

so false + rises (clinically) as there is a bigger tail of recovered.

@elonmusk @4 this makes for a total mess of cross variables.

add in the rapid tests which are antigen, not pathogen and can catch disease from even back i march, and the + rate really gets out of hand.

it's not a coincidence that %+ is spiking since that test rolled out.
@elonmusk @4 these tests are an absolute mess and not suited for purpose.

basing policy on them is lunacy.
@elonmusk @4 * 1/3

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More from @boriquagato

15 Nov
this study looks important:

it was controlled, prospective study. it's showing a stunning 71% mortality benefit in moderate to severe covid-19 cases even in the very old.

remdesivir shows no morality benefit.

baricitinib is a widely available RA drug available in pill form. Image
601 patients in the trial at university of pisa and albacete hospital.

83 treated with baricitinib. 83 controls established at same time using propensity score matching.

patients also received standard of care medication. Image
this led to dramatic differences in outcomes.

composite endpoint of death or mechanical ventilation was 29 in control group (34.9%) vs 14 in active arm (16.9%). 52% reduction. p<0.001.

effects were rapid and sustained.

curve separation was almost instant. Image
Read 14 tweets
15 Nov
on friday, governor wanda "lockdown" vazquez announced a tightening of puerto rico's restrictions and a whole set of "BEHAVE OR WE'LL MAKE IT WORSE!" threats.

among them:

• The National Guard has been activated to enforce EO compliance.

photo from VSJ promenade this morning: Image
let's hope this is just an unfortunate coincidence, but when you hear this kind of absolutist talk that puts systems over people, well, it's not hard to imagine the sound of jackboots

“We will not under any circumstance allow our health system to be placed at risk,” she said Image
“If during this new order that ends on December 11, we do not see a response from citizens and businesses in compliance, we would have to take more severe measures. I trust that those who are not complying will reconsider ” , Vázquez warned.

("cackled gleefully" is more like it) Image
Read 5 tweets
14 Nov
this is literal nonsense and propaganda.

it's also very possibly medical malpractice.

the idea that a patient healthy enough to tell you this needs to be intubated is ridiculous.

this "vent early, vent hard" strategy was a massive killer of patients.

it's disastrously wrong.
i do not know who this nurse is, but she's a liar or a fool. probably both. the move from early, aggressive venting to proning and O2 has saved an enormous number of lives.

was just talking about this the other day.

but this is NOT new news.

certain internet felines (and a great many of the smart physicians) had figured this out back in april.

this is not a perfect measure, but it's close enough and bolstered by reports from many physicians to whom i've spoken.

Read 8 tweets
13 Nov
as part of the new exec order once more cranking down on puerto rico is this little gem:

not only must every restaurant post its capacity (at 30% of normal) but the poster must have the number to dial to report non-compliance.

fascism works best when you do the work for them.
this is the sort of "karen-oia" that gets used to divide a people and make them fearful of one another as well as the state

it's an old trick from authoritarian communist/fascist regimes

then, of course, the obligatory threats:

the beatings will continue until morale improves!
as ever, there is zero science to it, just nonsense.

we were at 50% open, then 55% (yes, really), now 30%

but hey, now we can't go to the beach anymore (again) except for "individual sports"

no fresh air for you! stay inside where covid spreads better

what. utter. muppets.
Read 4 tweets
13 Nov
this is a foolish take and a misreporting of facts.

lockdowns and masks have no beneficial effect on spread.

but cases are a terrible metric because the tests are so over-sensitive (and testing level varies)

you pick up trace virus from months ago.
this means that in a place like sweden that had more spread before, you have a larger body of recovered, non-clinical patients to give you false positives.

this is why deaths are showing such a different story.

(and sweden counts more inclusively by far than US, EU)
"cases" as defined by just "a positive pcr test" are a nearly meaningless metric.

more on that here:

Read 8 tweets
13 Nov
cov exists in contagious form for ~5 days but in detectable form for ~77.

this is leading to massive false positives for clinical cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

this vastly distorts the data that is then used to drive policy.

we're on the gerbil wheel to hell.
this is what's driving the "casedemic". it's also what's driving much of the deaths data because so many are counting "death with" covid instead of "death from." sweden even goes so far as to count any death from any cause within 30 days of cov diagnosis as "covid death"
so you die from being an 85 year old with congestive heart failure but get counted as "covid" either because you had trace disease or because you picked it up opportunistically in the hospital.
Read 21 tweets

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