Qiao Wang Profile picture
14 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Observation: there's one asset that's shaping to be the Schelling point of DeFi.
- Fastest horse in arguably the important sector of finance -> being integrated everywhere
- Early adopters made rich -> strong community
- Little early investor sell pressure -> possible sell-side liquidity crisis
- Healthy amount of hype -> reflexively attracts capital/talent
Not financial advice. Not schilling. Just an observation.
Watching how they trade when BTC dips and how they recover from the DeFi mini-winter tells half of the story.

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More from @QwQiao

14 Nov
I continue to see more and more reasons why ETH could outperform BTC in the next bull run. Perhaps not on a risk-adjusted return basis, but likely on an absolute return basis.

However:
From a portfolio PoV, it may not make sense to own ETH at all. In my mind ETH is 50% BTC and 50% DeFi. So if you already own BTC, it makes sense to add DeFi. And if you already own DeFi, it makes sense to add BTC. But in either case adding ETH may not add uncorrelated returns.
When you construct a portfolio, not only do you need to think about the EV of each bet, but also whether a new addition to the portfolio is independent from existing bets. In this case, ETH may not be as independent from either BTC and DeFi.
Read 5 tweets
11 Nov
I don’t know, I feel like this “double-digit shitcoin” is on it’s way to 4 digits.
Anecdotally, I’m just seeing more and more smart people from both TradFi *and* tech who are total noobs but fascinated by Ethereum and this new parallel financial system called DeFi.
Many of them got into DeFi because of Bitcoin. Many others got into Ethereum/DeFi because they don’t understand Bitcoin. Pretty interesting dichotomy.
Read 4 tweets
10 Nov
My first appearance on @RealVision where I spoke at 300 words/minute to try share almost everything I know about crypto in under an hour.

realvision.com/shows/the-inte…
(I don't have a PhD barely finished my undergrad so that's a typo there.)
OK I know why it says "PhD" cuz there's a fake LinkedIn profile that says I have an applied math PhD from Buffalo. Bro, if I were to do a math PhD it'd be in pure math.
Read 4 tweets
9 Nov
The career risk is now to *not* have any exposure to BTC.
Read 4 tweets
4 Nov
A non-exhaustive list of DeFi products I'm excited about for the next couple years:

1) Synthetic traditional assets: provide access to high quality assets. Main challenge: regulatory.
2) Decentralized derivatives: on-chain perpetual swaps, futures, options, structured products, etc. Main challenge: will they be able reel in institutional liquidity?
3) Order book-based exchanges: with L2s and ETH competitors coming online, order book-based exchanges can finally scale. Main challenge: same as above, will institutional liquidity come?
Read 9 tweets
1 Nov
Assuming BTC doesn’t moon anytime soon, a -50% nuke is more likely than a +50% from here for DeFi IMO. After that we can begin a 2017-style bull market for the quality DeFi assets.
Make sure you screenshot this tweet if you want to dunk on me later because if I’m wrong I’ll make sure to delete this it.
(No I actually don’t delete bad market calls. I like use Twitter as my investment journal that I can revisit later to see why I got certain things right or wrong.)
Read 4 tweets

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