You want the download on hospitals?! We got that.

The only true comparison to gauge "how bad" things are is to compare our current hospital bed and utilization situation WITH past years.

Here. We. Go.

Every state, 2016-18 vs 2020 for Nov 1-9
1/
Taking data from the AHA we were able to retrieve annual stats (total beds, admissions, total days). From there we derived avg hospitalizations per day for 2016-18 (the latest years AHA provides).

This map shows the current increase/decrease in total utilization vs 2016-18.
2/
Utilization is important because beds fluctuate with needs. There are indeed states which are seeing a decent increase of total inpatient beds compared to average expectations. No one can deny that a 28% increase in beds in WI is significant but utilization is only up by 15%.
3/
There are some VERY surprising finds here. Despite the fears coming out of Utah from @GovHerbert and Gov-elect @SpencerJCox total beds and utilization are actually DOWN 2% from previous years!
4/
Same with New Mexico where @GovMLG just put the state into lockdown! Compared to PREVIOUS years New Mexico is 11% UNDER the typical hospital strain they would see in November. Utilization is actually DOWN 8.9% according to the AHA.
5/
Nationally, utilization (occupancy %) stands at about 70% which is about 3.1% higher than the national average from years past but again - because the AHA does NOT provide time series - we estimate that November will seasonably be about 1 to 5% higher than the average
6/
Head back up to the charts in the first tweet to find and share your favorite insights. All data taken from:
1) The AHA data hub: guide.prod.iam.aha.org/stats/states
2) The HHS Protect Datasets:
protect-public.hhs.gov

We'll post some more goodies over at rationalground.com soon!
Kudos to the meticulous and undeterred @kylamb8 who found, collated and collected all of this data to make this possible!

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More from @justin_hart

13 Nov
I've obtained inside info from a large hospital conglomerate in San Diego (Scripps). These are damning chart. The CEO of Scripps and other execs have pushed for MASSIVE lockdowns and scared everyone into thinking local hospitals were at they breaking point.

They were lying.
1/ Image
Chart above: emergency room visits over the past 20+ months. Notice the top #s denoting HOW FAR OFF they are from ER visits in 2019. Did people just stop getting injured/sick? No, fear drove them away. How many people died b/c they avoided the ER?

Well, wait times were down!
2/ Image
Clinic visits, Coast visits - down, down, down.
No wonder they want more #COVID19 patients. They're dying to make up the lost revenue from basic visits. And what happened to those people who didn't visit their usual clinic?
3/ ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
30 Oct
This might surprise you... it will certainly surprise every news organization in the country currently reporting that 1000 people died yesterday!

1000 people did NOT die yesterday from COVID-19.
The country has not averaged 1000 deaths/day since August 15th. Take a look:
1/
What you see on the USUAL dashboards are NEWLY REPORTED deaths but the ACTUAL deaths by date of death "layer" into the past like a blanket over the timeline.

Last week:
1,035 new deaths FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK
2,079 deaths week before
Even 1 NEW death reported for MARCH!
2/
Source: CDC Provisional counts:
data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provision…

AND the dutiful data collection efforts of @kylamb8
This data is only possible because Kyle collects it each day and layers the deaths in so WE can all see the differences.
Read 5 tweets
22 Oct
Let's review this mask thing one more time.

Studies on the effectiveness of face masks (via our friends at Swiss Policy Research and our dutiful writers at @Rational_Ground )

swprs.org/face-masks-evi…
rationalground.com/mask-studies/

Here. We. Go.
1/
So far, most studies found little to no evidence for the effectiveness of cloth face masks in the general population, neither as personal protective equipment nor as a source control.
2/
A May 2020 meta-study on pandemic influenza published by the US CDC found that face masks had no effect, neither as personal protective equipment nor as a source control.
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26…
3/
Read 16 tweets
11 Oct
1/ You've no doubt seen Team Apocalypse use clippings from 1918 regarding mask mandates, enforcement, virtue signaling as popular comparisons to today's situation. Little known are the words of those who opposed masks back then... and they were many:
2/ That headline was in the Santa Barbara Daily News and the Independent, Nov 16, 1918. "The average person doesn't know how to take care of a mask... and it not cleansed the thing soon becomes a veritable bacteria incubator." - Looking around you... has anything changed?
3/ One doctor interviewed then states: "As a matter of fact, the common use of the mask tends to propagate rather than check influenza." Read the whole thing...
but that's not all...

Let's hop over to Iowa. Des Moines Tribune, Nov 30, 1918...
Read 16 tweets
7 Oct
1/ “Grades have tanked!” (via email in my inbox)

"I am the Dir. of Technology for a school district open since Aug (split groups 2 days/wk with full remote option). We combined our split groups to push to 4 days/week (1/3 of our students are full remote). A few observations..."
2/ "We have ~2000 students ~250 staff. There have been 2 known student and 2 known staff cases. From what we know, the student cases were not connected to school."
3/ "Masks - It is weird. My favorite part about working in education was seeing the smiles on the little ones faces. That's just gone now."
Read 9 tweets
6 Oct
If you missed you - you missed the pinnacle of Tucker Carlson and #COVID19 - Watch these 5 clips to see EXACTLY what Team Reality has been saying for months now.
1/
2/
3/
Read 6 tweets

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