Somerset seems to be fairing much better than other parts of the country. Odd that the fatality rate should vary so much by region isn't it? Image
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More from @ClareCraigPath

20 Nov
More evidence of testing errors. I am going to show you a graph of the number of admissions per case diagnosed with COVID. First, let’s think what it should show.
At the beginning the admissions per case will be high because the only testing was done in hospitals. As we increased testing in the community and found more cases it should fall and keep falling.
In August and September, when we were mass testing people in their 20s who don’t go to hospital much, there should be another fall.
Read 12 tweets
15 Nov
Slovakia has just put rocket boosters under their COVID deaths. Within two weeks they've gone from virtually zero deaths to rates as high as Peru and Brazil had at their peak. So what happened?
Mass population testing was begun which resulted in 8x as many tests per day as were done at peak in Brazil. The tests were not perfect (none are) and so a percentage were labelled as positive when they did not have COVID. Some died. That's all that has happened. Slovakia is safe
Slovenia on the other hand rolled out mass testing and then decided it had been a bad idea.
Read 4 tweets
15 Nov
Switzerland were not badly hit in spring (peak 46 deaths per day). Currently they have 75 'COVID' deaths per day. Yet their excess death graph looks exactly like 2017.
Read 4 tweets
15 Nov
We need to stop comparing 2020 deaths with 2015 deaths. It's an unreasonable baseline.
Plus 'excess deaths' needs to be explained. They are not really 'excess' if it happens with every flu season. As long as we are not exceeding normal flu excesses then they are not really excess deaths.
Read 4 tweets
13 Nov
Let me tell you about a different test. The COVID antibody test. This has demonstrated that only 7% of the UK population had antibodies to COVID in May (it was 17% in London).
We know that people who had COVID in spring got these antibodies. So does that mean 90% of us remain susceptible as SAGE says. It does not. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
This is a measurement error. Let me explain. With every test there will be definite negatives, definite positives and a grey area in between. There is a choice about how to classify the grey area.
Read 28 tweets
13 Nov
The ONS have produced a thorough piece of research into non-COVID excess deaths. It is important work. Immense harm has been caused by changes in behaviour and people have died (and are still dying) as a result.
A&E attendances fell from the beginning of March. At the end of February we were told to isolate if we, those we shared a household with had a cough or fever.
That meant people with coughs and fevers were dissuaded from attending A&E. It also meant that healthcare were understaffed. With increasing numbers of us falling ill this had a large effect. Ambulance response times tripled to an average of an hour. thetimes.co.uk/article/reveal…
Read 13 tweets

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