Due to administrative delays in death certificate processing, today’s #COVID19 death toll actually reflects persons who died 3-6 weeks ago. That means:

250,000 U.S. persons died of #COVID19 *as of 3-6 weeks ago*

Let that sink in.
What happens over 3-6 weeks?
🔸0-2 weeks to file application for a death certificate (longer if autopsy required, funeral home backlog, etc.)

🔸1-3 weeks to process application at the state and/or local level

🔸0-1 weeks to prepare and report

see also: cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/covi…
💯 could not have said it better myself
Another way to think about what this all means is that, in a few weeks, we'll be dealing with:

"ONE SEPTEMBER 11th’s WORTH OF DEATHS EVERY SINGLE DAY."
If we do nothing, by inauguration day:
🔸2100+ daily *reported* deaths
🔸360K+ total *reported* deaths

***BUT*** that’s not fully accounting for people who will move forward with in-person Thanksgiving, etc.

source: covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…

#WearAMask and opt for a #Zoomsgiving
This is a great visualization of the administrative delay in death reporting for the state of Florida.

Notice how, even within a single state, the delay gets longer and shorter over time.
The current #COVID19 wave is decimating rural counties:

“As the pandemic has evolved and spread, those counties are increasingly rural […], with the poorest counties that have the fewest health resources bearing the brunt of the burden.”

abcnews.go.com/Health/small-t…

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More from @DataDrivenMD

18 Nov
30% of #COVID19 trial participants are healthcare professionals?! That’s really high...like “skew the results” high.
A study published in The Lancet showed higher rates of #COVID19 infection among front-line healthcare workers.

See:
thelancet.com/journals/lanpu…
There’s a lot to unpack in that study, it suffice it to say that there’s a need to account for the attributes that make healthcare workers higher risk, and go from there.
Read 8 tweets
18 Nov
😖 #COVID19 ”experts” on cable news: do your job.

Airport screening plans have been in the works for 5+ weeks.

How is possible that the public is still unaware of the fact this approach to testing is no better than that of the White House?

@AC360 @CuomoPrimeTime @maddow @CNN
If you need an opening, how about pointing to Trump’s #COVID19 testing czar advocating for *off-label* use of a test that hasn’t gone through the full FDA approval process (i.e. is under EUA)?

Here’s one example (and there are others):
Need to flesh out your talking points? How about speaking to the fact that the data the Trump administration to push forward was collected in a low-traffic airport during a time when community transmission was relatively low?

see: civilbeat.org/2020/07/lots-o… Image
Read 7 tweets
18 Nov
While Wayne County was attempting to undermine democracy, the FDA issued an EUA for a home-based #COVID19 *diagnostic* test

✅self-swab nasal sample
✅requires prescription
✅results in 30 minutes
✅home-based, no lab involved
❌physician responsible for reporting results 🤦🏻‍♂️
The convenience is great, but it's a nightmare from a data collection standpoint.

The prescription requirement is not meant to generate revenue for doctors, it's a (misguided) way to try to force *someone* to report the results.

This is not a data strategy, it's a hack. 🤦🏻‍♂️
The reason this is actually newsworthy is because it’s the first 100% home-based test with an EUA.
Read 8 tweets
18 Nov
The date of these documents may reveal when the Trump Administration knew that the travel ban was ineffective in stopping #COVID19...and whether they even tried to contact trace.

OHS AA = Patricia Bradshaw
tsa.gov/leader-bios/of…

DHS CHCO = Angela Bailey
dhs.gov/person/angela-…
*clarification — I meant to say that the rest of the documents may reveal if they even tried to contact trace.
That’s 2 days after the passengers aboard the cruise ship tested positive, 5 days prior to the EU travel ban.

But based on these documents, Trump knew we had 3 cases on the East Coast by this point.

See: ajmc.com/view/a-timelin…
Read 4 tweets
18 Nov
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: Trump is doing this *intentionally* to sabotage Biden.

Why? 2024. He’ll point at the vaccine and claim that everything fell apart as soon as he left.

This isn’t chess: it’s narcissism.

We must stop trying to reason with it.
Anyone who thinks the outgoing Trump administration isn't doing this with #COVID19 resources and plans has another thing coming.
Read 5 tweets

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