1/ I wouldn't say collapsing but it does look like hospitalizations have rolled in North Dakota (down 15% from peak) and peaked in Wisconsin and South Dakota. Right on schedule. Fingers crossed.

What's truly collapsing are European positive test counts.
2/ Those took a little longer to come down than anyone would have hoped, but France's seven-day positive test average is now down almost 60% from the early November peak and Spain down 40+% from its late October peak...
3/ Of course, Team Apocalypse will want to give the French lockdown on Oct. 30 credit for the rollover. The only problems with that story are that Spain DIDN'T lockdown, while the UK, which did on Nov. 5, has seen no decline in positive tests...
4/ Virus gonna virus, and it gets done virusing on its own schedule.

Again, too, despite the big #Covid death numbers in Europe in the last few weeks, overall mortality APPEARS lower than it was in the spring (pending correction) and ICU counts are clearly lower in France etc...
5/ Which suggests - though does not yet prove - that this wave is partially a casedemic.

You know what's not a testing artifact, though?

"The mental health of the French significantly deteriorated between late September and early November..."

france24.com/en/france/2020…

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More from @AlexBerenson

21 Nov
1/ Incredible study just out of China that formally reports the results of mass PCR testing in Wuhan in May. ~10 million people tested, 300 positives, all asymptomatic, NONE spread the virus to close contacts. Asymptomatic spread isn’t real = masking healthy people is useless... ImageImage
2/ The ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic cases was, well, infinite. Making #sarscov2 the most dangerous plague since that ragweed that got you sneezing last spring...
3/ 35% of all the asymptomatic positives came from people who’d previously been infected. This does NOT mean they were reinfected - it is a useful proxy for the rate of PCR tests to pick up former positives (the cycle threshold for positives was 37-40)...
Read 5 tweets
20 Nov
Team Apocalypse:

EVerY1 IN the DaKOTaS is DYING! The hOSP1TALs are OVERRUNNNN -

Head of Sanford Health, the largest health-care system in the Dakotas:

"We've got this under control. There's not a crisis."

Oh.

argusleader.com/story/news/202…
Two points here: The outbreak in the Dakotas looks like everywhere else - a sharp rise in hospitalizations for six weeks or so (sometimes slightly longer) followed by a sudden plateau. This pattern follows regardless of population density, time of year, or anything else...
And less hysterical epidemiologists and virologists would do us all a great service if they could figure out EXACTLY why. Does the answer have to do with herd immunity? Behavioral changes (which can happen whether or not they're mandated)? Some odd property of the virus?
Read 4 tweets
15 Nov
1/ This is really excellent. Btw: I have found only two states that report hospitalizations with/from #covid, Iowa and North Dakota. Both show that 25-30% of #Covid hospitalizations are with, not from (likely an underestimate)...
2/ So right now maybe 40,000-50,000 people nationally are hospitalized with #Covid - occupying roughly 7% of all hospital beds. But even that somewhat overstates the stress on the system, since hospitals seem to be able to push elective surgeries fairly easily as they fill...
3/ So in fact occupancy doesn’t rise (or fall) 1-to-1 with #Covid admissions - we’ve seen that before. And the fact this wave is widely geographically dispersed is actually a positive, not a negative. Is there reason for concern? Sure, of course, if the numbers keep rising...
Read 4 tweets
13 Nov
1/ Michigan's monthly death data provides a look at the terrible impact of the lockdowns.

From June to September 2020, 33,549 residents died - about 2,300 more than the previous year - a 7% increase.

Because #Covid, right?

No. Michigan classified 784 of the deaths as Covid...
2/ And it is VERY unlikely to have missed many (or even few) #Covid deaths, because Michigan aggressively matches death certificates with Covid test registries.

Further, reported deaths from COPD and pneumonia actually fell by about 250 from 2019 to 2020...
3/ Those are the two categories where unreported Covid deaths would be most likely. Meanwhile, cancer deaths also fell, and heart disease deaths (the biggest category) rose slightly.

In other words, Covid deaths are not being hidden. These other deaths are unrelated to #Covid...
Read 7 tweets
12 Nov
1/ A fascinating @JAMA_current paper today offers yet more proof that the PCR testing scheme vastly overstates the number of people with coronavirus infections...

The authors ran PCR tests on 176 RECOVERED #Covid patients 4 to 11 weeks post-diagnosis...

jamanetwork.com/journals/jamai…
2/ They found 32 (18%) tested POSITIVE for #sarscov2. Sounds bad.

But 31 of the 32 were positive at PCR thresholds of 30 or higher. And not one of those patients had replicative (live) virus. The only patient with live virus was the one with the lowest PCR cycle threshold...
3/ In other words, 97 percent of these patients had no live virus in their bodies despite a positive PCR test - and they were 18 percent of ALL the people surveyed (though they were not a random sample - they had had the virus before).

And that's how you make a #casedemic.
Read 4 tweets
12 Nov
1/ A week later, as the dust settles: Democrats may have eked out a win, but they should be TERRIFIED.

@realDonaldTrump is a unique figure in American politics. He took over the GOP in a year. His obvious personal failings did not keep 70+ million people from voting for him...
2/ He built a wall at the border and gained Hispanic votes.
He won 12 million+ more votes than Mitt Romney even though the media has basically called him a mass murder for the last eight months...
3/ But, strangely, Trump is more the messenger than anything else. The message is two-fold: the country doesn't want hard-left policies like the Green New Deal. And even more crucial: The arrogance of the woke left is ODIOUS. People are sick of it. Trump speaks to that anger...
Read 4 tweets

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