More evidence of testing errors. I am going to show you a graph of the number of admissions per case diagnosed with COVID. First, let’s think what it should show.
At the beginning the admissions per case will be high because the only testing was done in hospitals. As we increased testing in the community and found more cases it should fall and keep falling.
In August and September, when we were mass testing people in their 20s who don’t go to hospital much, there should be another fall.
Here is the graph
Looks like we predicted. But what’s going on in June? It’s hard to tell because of the scale so let’s forget about the beginning and just look from 1st June.
This is odd. There is a in the first half of June and another at the beginning of September despite all the testing of university students at that time. Were these outbreaks of a more severe COVID? There is no evidence of more severe strains.
Could this be a testing error? If most of what we were seeing were false positives then the number of tests done would influence the results. Increasing the number of tests done in hospital would make the line go up and increasing them in the community would make the line go down
I am going to show you another graph now. This is a graph of the number of tests in hospital (which create false positive admissions) divided by the number of tests in the community (which create false positive cases). I left a 10 day lag between the two as for the first graph.
This also has a rise at the beginning of June and another rise at the beginning of September.
Let’s see the two side by side. This is very suspicious to me. Am I wrong? Have I missed a biological explanation?

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More from @ClareCraigPath

21 Nov
Southend has lots of deaths but very few cases: Image
Same with Castle Point: Image
North Somerset on the other hand has lots of cases but few deaths: Image
Read 7 tweets
21 Nov
On 11th Nov, ONS estimates that Salford had 4300 COVID cases per 100,000. That is 16x higher than the rates the ONS estimated for the country as a whole from 27th Apr until 10th May. Image
Estimates from community testing put the figure at just over 50 per 100,000. That's quite a discrepancy. Why can't they find all these cases? Image
In contrast, the ONS estimates that Hull has 250 cases per 100,000. So only 10x higher than the whole country between 27th April and 10th May. Image
Read 5 tweets
18 Nov
Somerset seems to be fairing much better than other parts of the country. Odd that the fatality rate should vary so much by region isn't it? Image
Read 4 tweets
15 Nov
Slovakia has just put rocket boosters under their COVID deaths. Within two weeks they've gone from virtually zero deaths to rates as high as Peru and Brazil had at their peak. So what happened?
Mass population testing was begun which resulted in 8x as many tests per day as were done at peak in Brazil. The tests were not perfect (none are) and so a percentage were labelled as positive when they did not have COVID. Some died. That's all that has happened. Slovakia is safe
Slovenia on the other hand rolled out mass testing and then decided it had been a bad idea.
Read 4 tweets
15 Nov
Switzerland were not badly hit in spring (peak 46 deaths per day). Currently they have 75 'COVID' deaths per day. Yet their excess death graph looks exactly like 2017.
Read 4 tweets
15 Nov
We need to stop comparing 2020 deaths with 2015 deaths. It's an unreasonable baseline.
Plus 'excess deaths' needs to be explained. They are not really 'excess' if it happens with every flu season. As long as we are not exceeding normal flu excesses then they are not really excess deaths.
Read 4 tweets

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