Su Zhu Profile picture
20 Nov, 3 tweets, 1 min read
in 2018, I firmly believed that entrenched discerning individuals would put in the work needed to massively outperform funds and instantiate megatrends

it gives me great joy to see folks like @Arthur_0x, @Rewkang, @Delphi_Digital, young as they may be, lead DeFi investing today
every mega-trend creates new OGs, and DeFi is all the stronger for it being no exception to this rule
one thing all three of these had in common is writing longform research and theses

as much as I enjoy a good trade, thesis-driven activist investing is the best way to go 1,000x

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More from @zhusu

17 May 19
Bitmex wicked down to 6.4k.

2k BTC+ sell wall on bitstamp absorbed.

Looks like a mark price exploit by placing a large sell on stamp (1 of 2 oracles for mark on mex) to trigger liquidations on mex.

You would've been fine on lvg long on bitfinex which didn't go below 7k.
Even more egregious on ETHUSD. Mex wicked to 190, while low elsewhere was ~235.
Interestingly, kraken was added as a third weight a while ago and later removed.
Read 4 tweets
8 May 19
This so-called "reorg attack" is basic strategy and has been known for yrs

It's a defense, a way to "mark as theft," there's no "rollback," no coordination w/ miners required

This impacts no other transactions that are happening meantime, causes no hf
Hacker could re-bribe ofc, leading to bidding war. So you could say post-block rewards, most of hacked value will accrue to miners (vis a vis that bidding war)

We will likely see ppl build out tools to estimate a safe # of confirms required based on the BTC amt of the TX
I do think it's an exercise in using precise language. It came across to many as "brb, reorg-ing BTC atm" which triggered many ppl's sense of disgust and was a call to arms to defend immutability. Yet there's plenty of Bitcoiners who understand that this is just how PoW works
Read 4 tweets
4 Feb 19
Since 1/1/2013, only two TA strategies (MACD and Exponential MA) have outperformed Buy & Hold.
Since 1/1/2014, various MA strategies have outperformed. 2015 start date looks similar.
The worst strats since 2013 are KBand, RSI, CCI, BB, Stoch. Down since BTC was $13.30!
Bad TA is not just marginally bad--it can mean being net down trading an asset that has gone 1,500x and is still 250x from start date.
Look how bad RSI style strategies are for crypto relative to people's insistence on using them.

For ETH since Feb 2018, even though Buy&Hold is the absolute worst strategy, KBand/BB/RSI are pretty close behind.

Trend-following sounds easy but is psychologically contrarian.
Read 5 tweets

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