1/ This is the big day, after months of vague threats and hundreds of "I won't hesitate" and the admonishment of yahoos and bad actors this is it. Ford gets one chance after all the melodramatic warnings and mad faces. This is his one big card and after he plays it he has nothing
2/ left that anyone will ever take seriously again. I hope he realizes this more than any other day will define his Premiership and any political future he may have. There are no "do-overs", no mulligans; this is his only chance to be taken seriously and get it right.
2/ But he won't. He won't shut down bars, restaurants and retail. He won't close high attack rate businesses, already teetering on the brink of insolvency, and compensate them.
There won't be paid sick leave so ill workers can afford to stay home and not infect others.
3/ There will be nothing of substance to either stem the spread of COVID or to aid the economy this is the Ford way.
We will get a petulant, mad and pretend serious Doug saying he hates to do this, his hand was forced and then he will announce measures that will do nothing.
4/ He thinks he will be able to sell this to us as a quick and effective plan to stop the spread, save hospitals that are filled to capacity, and stop deaths. But he can't; we're too smart for this and we've heard this song too many times.
5/ November 20 could have gone down as the day Ford finally showed leadership and put a strong and effective mitigation plan into effect, the day we turned the pandemic around. Instead today will go down in history as the day Doug Ford's political career effectively ended.
6/ It didn't have to be this way, and for a few hours at least, it still doesn't, but it will be. Prove me wrong.
This is the day Ford will fail us and try to fool us for the last time. @fordnation @celliottability #onpoli

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More from @FourWinns298

15 Nov
1/ Funny how this account has evolved. Its original purpose was to help people understand COVID, its epidemiology, and how to best avoid contracting it. As treatments and vaccines got closer I wanted to explain the science of how they worked and the methodology of distribution.
2/ It quickly became clear that the biggest impediment to the control of COVID was the government. Their disdain for, and complete lack of understanding of science has led to where we are now 1500 cases a day and on a trajectory to 5000+.
3/ Ford was warned this was where we were headed in the summer and with greater urgency as September arrived.
These numbers are not a surprise to him, he was well aware that if proper mitigation measures were not implemented that our numbers would be the same
Read 8 tweets
13 Nov
1/ As @bruce_arthur reports MOHs were shown the original "framework" which had thresholds that would have made sense for mitigation and were FAR lower than what was ultimately passed. Some MOHs requested additional and logical restrictions be added in fact.
2/ BUT when the plan was finalized "the thresholds were much, much higher" "And "red had garishly high thresholds"
as reported. To put it bluntly the "new framework" is utterly useless and has changed the modeling from 1200 cases a day to a projected 6500 which would exceed
3/ the trajectory of European countries already in lockdown.
Williams, who Ford has repeatedly shown has the most influence and trust of the premier, has shown time and time again he does not comprehend the seriousness of what we face and does not have even a minimal
Read 11 tweets
12 Nov
1/ COVID can induce a hypercoagulable state with embolizing clots throughout the body, we also know it can can infect and injure endothelial cells and cardiovascular, pulmonary, neurologic, and mental health sequelae are becoming common.
2/ This could burden the healthcare system for years.
We are seeing re-hospitalizations and people unable to resume their pre-infection lives.
We are also seeing acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, which was rare before the time of COVID - encephalopathy and stroke.
3/ Potential sequelae like cardiomyopathy keep me awake at night, as we simply have not lived with COVID long enough to know exactly how prevalent or damaging the long term effects will be. Endothelial dysfunction and myriad systemic complications will become clearer in time but
Read 4 tweets
7 Nov
1/ “The numbers that we’re seeing in Peel and specifically Brampton, they’re just going through the roof,” said Ford. “It’s out of control right now, and we have to react.”
Why then are you relaxing measures that have been in effect for 29 days and didn't work? Your new "plan"
2/ for "Red Zone" which should be yellow, says the standard is:
Weekly incidence rate ≥ 100 per 100,000
Peel is 103 and Brampton is 170.
% positivity ≥ 10%
officially it's 11% but we BOTH KNOW it is much higher. Release the real number.
3/ Now to go into LOCKDOWN, that's a scary name, but it's not LOCKDOWN it's Stage 1, real lockdown does not exist in your misguided plan. Okay, to go into LOCKDOWN "Trends continue to worsen after measures from Control level are implemented."
Read 10 tweets
29 Oct
1/ There are no easy answers for why Europe's COVID situation is raging right now. Complacency, colder weather where people move indoors, and an aversion to masking seem to all be working in concert along with bungled testing standards to have created this huge second surge.
2/ There had been relatively free travel all over Europe in the carefree summer of 2020 that suggested to people that normality had returned.
It is always easier to "sell" an idea to people, it is much more difficult to "resell" it.
Governments were very slow to react and
3/ when they did they ordered ineffectual measures like curfews and reduced dining and bar hours. By the time they introduced circuit breaker plans it was far too late.
France and Germany this week announced moves designed to reset the countries. Germany's measures,
Read 6 tweets
28 Oct
1/ We are seeing a Thanksgiving bump in Ontario if you're at an indoor gathering COVID is probably there too. it's very quiet and unassuming, kind of the "death" of the party. Numbers are probably less than had been expected because of the hot spot mitigation
2/ measures that were taken, later than they should have been; we should be seeing the results of these right about now. This will help, but implementing them when there was pretty much uncontrolled community spread, will get them down but not to where we need them.
3/ We need to get numbers way down so we can effectively test, trace and isolate again (stopping it in certain regions was the right decision). We also need to concentrate far more on BACKWARD contact tracing, data shows this is a VERY effective method of infection control.
Read 9 tweets

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