I had a chance to spend some more time with this paper yesterday and thought I'd share some of the things that popped out. Since the paper is organized more or less around quotes from their interviews in China about the Sino-Indian nuclear balance, it is very quotable. 1/n
"Chinese analysts maintain a dismissive attitude about... nuclear weapons in China-India relations. The attitude stems from a widely held view that India’s indigenous military technologies are significantly behind China’s & that China will continue widening the gulf..." 2/n
"[Chinese analysts] also downplay the risk of nuclear escalation in any conventional conflict with India, though they do worry about an India-Pakistan nuclear conflict." 3/n
“India is not on the radar screen,” says unnamed Chinese foreign policy expert in fall 2019. 4/n
"In terms of military and nuclear capability, “China is & will remain at least ten years ahead for the foreseeable future,” one Chinese military expert noted. A Chinese nuclear expert argued that India’s “small arsenal can deter, but there is a qualitative gap” with China." 5/n
“Interdependence means China and India can’t afford to be enemies," quote attributed to interview with Chinese analysts in fall 2019. 6/n
On India's nuclear modernization: "There are always people in decisionmaking circles who worry, so if the nuclear threat from India increases, then some in China will argue for
a response.” Interview with Chinese academic, fall 2019.
"This lack of Chinese sensitivity to Indian views of bilateral nuclear relations has created a situation that could be termed 'decoupled deterrence.'" Dalton and Zhao's assessment. 8/n
"...Some analysts with the PLA believe that India’s nuclear thinking is inward-looking: India has set its standard for credible nuclear deterrence, independent from the
capabilities and postures of its rivals." Cites 2017 Military Digest article 9/n
On NFU: "'If India wants to be responsible, it won’t change its no-first-use policy,' one Chinese analyst argued." 10/n
On China's NFU: "China’s ongoing but relatively muted debate over no first use 'is influenced by the United States, not by India,' many analysts argued." 11/n
Clearest Chinese concern: "Chinese experts are particularly wary of U.S.-India missile defense cooperation and the possibility that it could create a networked system. If such a system was to emerge, they would see India as a de facto security ally of the United States." 12/n
Potential for Dialogue, part 1: "Official bilateral nuclear dialogue is unnecessary, but unofficial talks can be useful," interview with Chinese nuclear expert, fall 2019. 13/n
Potential for Dialogue, part 2: "India is only concerned with prestige, not deterrence; therefore, dialogue doesn’t matter,” argued one Chinese academic. 14/n
Anyway, I'm not especially worried about tactical or other first use situations in the near- to medium-term so I haven't quoted anything from those discussions, but those are also worth a look. So go read the whole thing. 15/15 carnegieendowment.org/2020/08/19/at-…

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More from @clary_co

19 Nov
Tellis 2020: "Today, India possesses the world’s 2nd-largest army (...active duty), which is complemented by arguably the world’s largest paramilitary forces; the 7th-largest navy (...by number of vessels); and the 4th largest air force (...by the number of combat aircraft)"
Tellis 2020: "Since addressing bread-&-butter issues is critical to success in mass politics..., India’s political leaders have consistently paid more attention to economic & technological development rather than expanding the country’s influence through military instruments."
Tellis: "By 2025 or shortly thereafter, the 4 major air bases currently used by China along the India border could expand to as many as 12 facilities..., which—depending on the number of air regiments deployed—could confront the IAF with... 200 to 400 Chinese combat aircraft..."
Read 4 tweets
19 Nov
I'm trying to make sure I'm not missing major recent works to think about the Sino-Indian military balance. Here is my partial list. What else do you suggest? 1/n
O'Donnell (@frank11285 ) and Bollfrass, India-China military balance (though the link seems broken right now) belfercenter.org/publication/st… 2/n
Tellis, "Capable but Constrained" carnegieendowment.org/files/India_-_… 3/n
Read 8 tweets
6 Oct
Let’s say events of the last week have made you angry. For the cost & time of a nice dinner out—& in much of the US it’s too cold or disease-ridden for this to be safe—you can feel better that you tried to get this small-handed demagogue out of our lives. Here’s what I did.
If your main concern is Trump you can give to Biden. It’s right there at the front of the homepage. joebiden.com
You can volunteer. Information technology means you can do a lot from your home. I did a 30 minute training last night to text for Biden, but there are several options identified here. joebiden.com/take-action/
Read 8 tweets
9 Aug
Some highlights on Indian attitudes toward China from India Today's Mood of the Nation poll. Conducted telephonically between July 15 and 27, 12,021 interviews across 19 Indian states. h/t @Cold_Peace_ 1/n
Some tension between the overwhelming majority that say "India gave a befitting answer" to the recent skirmishes with China and the large majority who say India should "go to war with China". 2/n
Perhaps part of the answer for Indian respondents' pro-war sentiments is they say that India can win. Why not go to war if India will emerge victorious. (I'd be interested to see Hindi translation, since "can win" vs. "is likely to win" are quite different sentiments.) 3/n
Read 9 tweets
14 Jul
I am catching up on some old podcasts and wanted to flag that this interview between @ananthkrishnan and @sdinny14 is worth a listen even if it is a few weeks old. Things that struck me.... 1/n thehindu.com/podcast/india-…
I'll paraphrase throughout so apologies if my old memory fails. Basically, the situation as we have known it for a while is that India has a base between Fingers 2 & 3 and China has a road to Finger 4. There's a trail, as I understand it to get from Finger 3 to 4. 2/n
So Indian forces hike over and get to Finger 4 and then they start walking on the road. Normally the Chinese pull up and say, "Hey, this is our road." Presumably the Indians say something like, "Well, this is our territory." 3/n
Read 8 tweets
10 Jul
I'd encourage you to read this new piece by @splalwani on how the US might consider responding to the most recent Sino-Indian crisis. I want to focus on one aspect that Sameer thoughtfully addresses: India's dependence on Russia. 1/n warontherocks.com/2020/07/revela…
In recent weeks, Ashley Tellis, in a few different settings, has talked about how India's multiple defense suppliers were preventing it from being able to take full advantage of network-centric shifts in warfare. I think he's probably correct, especially in the air. 2/n
In Sameer's War on the Rocks piece he helpfully links to a working paper he and others are writing on the India-Russia relationship and it shows how Indian dependence on Russian hardware is arguably growing. 3/n sameerlalwani.com/wp-content/upl…
Read 11 tweets

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