I was told to stop w/statistics & data. I agree. So how about this:

Imagine the East Coast, Maine to Florida. Now imagine every one of those people starving. Literally starving, worrying about where their next meal will come from, if it comes at all

The east coast is home to a little under 130,000,000 people. And 130 million is the number of people in the world that our global overreaction to Covid has pushed to the brink of starvation according to the World Health Organization.

Do you support lockdowns? You may think you’re being virtuous, but you're being selfish. Imagine driving from Portland, Maine thru Boston, NYC, Philly, DC, Atlanta, Miami. Now imagine everybody you saw on your trip starving. All 130 million of them. Those are faces of lockdowns.
Add to that people right here at home so afraid of Covid they stay home while having strokes and heart attacks. They stay home or are delayed from chemo and other life-maintaining treatments. Some sit alone in despair, drinking alcohol or abusing drugs.
Some lash out at spouses and children who have no school or social life in which to find refuge or help - or detection.
Kids growing up spending formative chunks of their lives learning that being close to another human is dangerous and the very breathe we exhale is poison. You don’t think that’s going to have long-term effects?
Alzheimer's patients confused, lost in their own fading world with no one working to keep them afloat – they drown in their isolation. Grandparents denied the joy of one of the definitive pleasures of life - hugging a grandchild or seeing the joy of their faces Christmas morning.
“But lockdowns save lives” you cry.

But denying human contact, scaring people to death, driving people to despair, is this “saving” lives?

And how many lives does it save?
All through US & Europe many places that locked down thought they stopped cases, but it wasn’t lockdowns. It was summer. And when summer was over, Covid returned. Masks, social distancing, lockdowns, all ripped through by Covid like a football team running through a paper banner.
No Proms, no 3rd grade shows in a crowded gym, no science fairs, no big games, no school (that they used to say they didn’t like but now walk around like zombies pining for the interactions).
Shortcomings in education lead to a lifetime of shortcomings, from career choices & earning power, to emotional development & family building.
Supply chains disrupted. Jobs lost. Production slowed. 130 million people in danger of starvation.

It’s easy for many of us in the middle class to hunker down & work from home. Just buy a new computer for kid’s remote schooling & work from the den. Not everybody has that option.
And then there are the elite who look upon us all with contempt for complaining about the interruption to our little lives. At the same time they try to hide the true nature of Covid: it finds people close to the edge and pushes them over.
Before Covid, half of people moving into nursing homes weren’t there after 5 months. It's where we used to place people who needed compassion & care as they navigate the end of their lives. Now it's where we put them in isolation & concentrate 4 of every 10 Covid-labeled deaths.
But the elite still go to parties in Napa Valley. Like Nancy Pelosi, they weather the storm of lockdowns at salons and eating delivered gourmet ice cream stored in their $20,000 refrigerators.

What do they say to you & to the people starving, suffering and dying from lockdowns?

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More from @Dierenbach

3 Nov
Interesting to compare Colorado and Ireland.

Ireland 5 million
Colorado 5.8 million

Ireland 1,917 C19 deaths
Colorado 2,292 C19 deaths

But the most intriguing part is comparing their Covid curves.

Read on.

First look at cases. Ireland's cases started growing in early September and they seemed to have peaked on about Oct 20 (remember this date).

Colorado turned upward about about a week later, paused and then had fast growth.

Next look at deaths. Both Colorado and Ireland had peak fatalities in late April.

Note that Ireland, like Colorado, hasn't seen a spike in deaths comparable to the April spike. This seems to be a common occurrence.

Read 12 tweets
25 Oct
Hi @Jendrite, I read through this article you tweeted to me. It was long and full of questionable logic. I did read it all and considered its arguments and evidence and remain thoroughly unconvinced that Sweden is a disaster.


To the contrary, like the recent WHO official, I believe Sweden was the model. Since I read it and wrote down my thoughts, I figure I might as well post them in a too-long tweet thread that nobody will probably ever read, but that’s how I roll.

First, Sweden isn’t 12th, they are 14th by the standard of the article. This is because in the two weeks since the article was published, Sweden’s deaths per million has hardly moved while they were passed by Panama and Colombia.
Read 28 tweets
5 Oct
Colorado is committing suicide.

CDC excess death data shows since June 20 more than twice as many Coloradans have died from @GovofCO @CDPHE and local restrictions than have died from Covid.

310 with Covid, 787 from response.

Literally suicide.

Details follow.

The CDC tracks the total number of deaths for the country and each state. Any deaths over the expected number of deaths are “excess” deaths.

Note: CDC data takes a while to collect and publish so data is through Aug 22.

Data here: cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr…

In CO, Covid caused a massive spike in excess deaths March-May. The BLUE line.

However, aside from Covid, CO saw above normal fatalities. The RED line.

The red line has exceeded the blue line since June 20. Since then, deaths from our response have exceeded Covid deaths.

Read 9 tweets
17 Sep
Here are more thoughts regarding the possibility of a Covid floor in Colorado. First, as a reminder, both positivity and hospitalizations seem to have found a steady-state floor and have been at the same levels for weeks.


Here's a chart showing last 10 years of visits for Influenza-like illnesses (ILI) in US. What's missing? Aside from perhaps mid-July to mid-Aug summer nadir, there are no steady-state periods where ILI visits remain unchanged for weeks. Such balance doesn’t occur naturally.

And it makes sense, either the flu is spreading or contracting. To strike a perfect balance where there are a steady-state significant number of cases week over week would be very difficult. Even Colorado’s modeling group agrees.

Read 8 tweets
27 Aug
Fun fact #2:

Colorado's COVID-19 Modeling Group estimates that if we stopped social distancing and stopped wearing masks, 13,370,000 Coloradans would become infected with Covid-19.

Which is weird, as Colorado only has 5,841,000 residents.

Read on.
1st the model. The COVID-19 Modeling Group (CMG) made an app of their model. @GovofCO Polis said it's the same data used in CMG reports to him. Here is a screenshot of the model with social distancing & mask wearing set to 0.

It results in 5,513,600 Symptomatic Infections
The model is available at cucovid19.shinyapps.io/colorado/

Read 10 tweets
23 Jul
It's now possible to determine the effect of the severe lockdowns in Colorado from March thru May:

Lockdown lowered CO’s peak covid hospitalizations from about 1,120 to the 888 CO saw on April 14.

It delayed about 40 deaths by 3 months.

That’s it. That's all.

Thread explains.
Covid is inevitable. We can’t stop it. We can only delay some effects if we react harshly and early. This was the whole premise of “Flatten the Curve”. FTC never implied infection/hospitalization/death avoidance, just delay.
Here’s how the effects of Colorado's lockdown can be determined.

This chart is the covid hospitalizations curve for Colorado from 3/22 to 6/11. It displays the classic Gompertz curve associated with a virus moving through a population.
Read 18 tweets

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