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More from @BTC_JackSparrow

12 Nov
I studied Gold and tech cycles

It suggests next two btc cycles may become much shorter, peaking end of ‘21 and ‘23, followed by a 6-9 year bear market (‘29-‘32)

After that potential to become a global reserve asset, the hypothesis suggests

Speculative, but hear me out 👇 1/
Shorter cycles are completely against popular belief that prefers lenghtening cycles

However, user adoption and financial absorption are completely different timelines

Money comes earlier than user adoption and saturates before user adoption saturates, not symmetrically 2/
Here is the deal: tech became a reserve asset, replacing the gap gold left behind

Gold was a reserve asset, losing merit

Tech is where many dollars got stored and gained/preserved wealth

Bitcoin is an extension of tech, an extension with more features than Gold 3/
Read 6 tweets
11 Nov
ETH 2.0 transition will bring some new interesting, not before seen dynamics, at this scale

The current supply (ETH1) is going to get split by deposits to ETH2, a one way ticket

So we get two partially silo’d split supplies, where one can move to the other, but not back 1/
For a while, we basically get two assets. ETH1 and ETH2. Like a fork, but without a 1:1 copy of the supply

Surely, if both assets have equal fundamentals, arbitrage between the two assets should balance price

But each asset will fundamentally be different 2/
First of all, ETH2 will have different utility until ETH1 smart contracts are fully supported and moved to ETH2, a long time out

Secondly, they will have different supplies, different monetary policies, PoW vs PoS, so different dynamics 3/
Read 6 tweets
8 Nov
If you are new, here is the story of how I started out, a story of winning, losing and growing

Maybe it can help you

Thread/
2/ Early 2017 a friend pushed me to read the Ethereum whitepaper

I bought bitcoin and ether eventually - flabbergasted by its potential and its growth over the years

I bought a local top on ETH and saw its value drop 70%
3/ I was shocked and had zero idea about trading

I started researching other altcoins & investing in ideas I liked, whilst learning about technical analysis

It was a great year, trading wise not so much, but alts and btc were flying
Read 7 tweets
7 Nov
Aggressive buying stepped in last night as price was trying to trade in to 15,000 and since lots of liquidity has been ramping up under price

Haven’t seen such rapid action on the books for a while

The whole market dynamic has changed

Normally we’d have scamwicked already
It’s important to stay vigilant

This price action can sustain itself for a while longer but you can’t keep aggressively adding on each bounce without keeping risk in check, it’s easy to go too big

Risk on, but risk-off some point to have dry powder once a big swing down comes
Some dry powder on the side, even though it may feel like you’re not maximizing upside potential of your portfolio, is likely beneficial

Given you have a decent strategy to scale in and out, you’ll likely end up with similar results, with less risk in the market
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
Consolidation market levels often fail unpredictably

Strong trend market levels often work well

Common mistake is to get conditioned to one market state, misplaying when conditions roll over

Define a quantifiable way to label market state of your trading scope and levels
Strong trend market levels are established through real (skewed) supply and demand

Consolidation market levels are sometimes the result of liquidity engineering and complex risk adjusting algorithms, and you guess it, it makes them unpredictable
In other words: in trending markets, be aggressive on retests, levels work more often

In consolidating markets, figure out where people are getting trapped and act when they confirm wrong as levels didn’t work the way they thought
Read 5 tweets
1 Nov
Slow and steady wins the race

Bitcoin is often critized for being slow in everything

But here is the thing: the more you complicate a design early on, the more you push it down a specific road

Get your assumptions wrong, and it's off-road

Thread/
1/ Slow governance in networks means it's hard to take a turn left or right - if the current direction is strong, it makes it safe, attracting investors who believe it's the right direction and know deviation is unlikely

Slow governance does not mean development is slow btw
2/ It means that development is reviewed from many angles/participants, consuming a lot of time, meaning that the best possible outcome for all stakeholders is established

In small networks, these processes are faster - shortcuts can be taken, but wrong turns are more likely
Read 12 tweets

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