Schema trumps calculation
Consilience trumps precision
Critical path trumps method
Experience trumps heuristic
Schema is the structure of critical knowledge; a incremental abstract for understanding one carries, to which elements of evidence and evaluation may be fitted/attached. It is a living, breathing system of interrelationships which all have to perform well relative to each other.
Consilience is the action of reinforcing an idea, construct or hypothesis through bringing to bear, supporting inference from several completely independent perspectives, models, research or evaluation avenues.
Critical path is the incremental logical pathway by which an objective and sincere researcher prosecutes a knowledge objective. It is a series of salient, probative, sequential, and incremental questions, which sideline the non-sequitur, ignoratio elenchi and irrelevant.
Experience is the abductive inference obtained through working alongside the best in the world for decades, the inductive inference of myriad successes inside risk, coupled with the deductive inference set of having failed at every single other alternative which does not work.

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More from @EthicalSkeptic

20 Sep
Yesterday we saw that we are nominally below the pandemic threshold and are two weeks (?) from The Crossover Point, the point where deaths from over-reaction exceed deaths from Covid itself.

We also cited that Covid reporting cannot account for 101,400 fatalities as of 5 Sep.
If we take CDC excess death curve & superimpose it upon our case & reported death curve - we are below EoS for cases now. We will be below EoS for excess deaths 3 weeks later - right on time.

Reporting however is a wild card depending on how far they dip into the 101,400 cases.
At this rate of true test-positive daily arrivals (theoretical new cases of Covid each day), the prospects of us drifting much beyond the middle of the herd resistance band, are pretty low.
Read 5 tweets
8 Sep
@Hold2LLC I have the outline of such a dissertation in my head. But in terms of the fatal critical path logic of each: 1/4
@Hold2LLC R(t) - viruses do not progress, transactions do. Such transactions have

- connector-processor-sink heterogeneity
- reach (vertical and horizontal)
- decay in virility
- friction
- seasonality based decay
- latitudinal decay

R(t) is counter-informative on these measures. 2/4
@Hold2LLC SEIR - 'recovered' is not only tail, but is ALL TAIL - which will always indicate that the sky is falling.

'Susceptible' - is an a priori knowledge boast of enormous sensitivity impact.

Both are high-sensitivity/low informing statistics. Systems pro's avoid such indices. 3/4
Read 4 tweets

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