On 11th Nov, ONS estimates that Salford had 4300 COVID cases per 100,000. That is 16x higher than the rates the ONS estimated for the country as a whole from 27th Apr until 10th May.
Estimates from community testing put the figure at just over 50 per 100,000. That's quite a discrepancy. Why can't they find all these cases?
In contrast, the ONS estimates that Hull has 250 cases per 100,000. So only 10x higher than the whole country between 27th April and 10th May.
But community testing is finding many more of these cases. Could something be wrong with the estimates or the diagnoses or, maybe, both?

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Dr Clare Craig

Dr Clare Craig Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ClareCraigPath

22 Nov
China is trolling us with this and Nature should be embarrassed at having published it: nature.com/articles/s4146…
It claims 10M people were tested in the last two weeks of June in Wuhan. That's over 700k tests a day. I do not believe that - do you?
It then claims that not a single COVID case was found i.e. COVID disease with symptoms capable of spread - weeks after all the drama. I do not believe that - do you?
Read 7 tweets
21 Nov
Southend has lots of deaths but very few cases: Image
Same with Castle Point: Image
North Somerset on the other hand has lots of cases but few deaths: Image
Read 7 tweets
20 Nov
More evidence of testing errors. I am going to show you a graph of the number of admissions per case diagnosed with COVID. First, let’s think what it should show.
At the beginning the admissions per case will be high because the only testing was done in hospitals. As we increased testing in the community and found more cases it should fall and keep falling.
In August and September, when we were mass testing people in their 20s who don’t go to hospital much, there should be another fall.
Read 12 tweets
18 Nov
Somerset seems to be fairing much better than other parts of the country. Odd that the fatality rate should vary so much by region isn't it? Image
Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
15 Nov
Slovakia has just put rocket boosters under their COVID deaths. Within two weeks they've gone from virtually zero deaths to rates as high as Peru and Brazil had at their peak. So what happened?
Mass population testing was begun which resulted in 8x as many tests per day as were done at peak in Brazil. The tests were not perfect (none are) and so a percentage were labelled as positive when they did not have COVID. Some died. That's all that has happened. Slovakia is safe
Slovenia on the other hand rolled out mass testing and then decided it had been a bad idea.
Read 4 tweets
15 Nov
Switzerland were not badly hit in spring (peak 46 deaths per day). Currently they have 75 'COVID' deaths per day. Yet their excess death graph looks exactly like 2017.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!